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The Swamp

  • #65,781
  • May 30, 2020 2:03am May 30, 2020 2:03am
Happy weekends everyone!

Dailies did not flip for EU, DX, and GU ytd.

It's more probable that DX will retest Friday's low next week.
Higher timeframes look bearish... daily closed on the 200 SMA.

DX D1
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This DX pattern looks similar to GU weeks back.
A leg down from the daily mudhole then it started poking the daily support-turned-resistance.
Not saying same will happen.

GU D1
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EU daily kumo breakout happened at 1066 (very impt for bears to overtake this back), it penetrated weekly kumo at 1087 (to complete at 1224).
1145 capped the bullish momentum for now but still looks bullish.

Let's see how things unfold next week.
Peace is more valuable than success.
LifeDrifts v1 [automated] All Time Return: -0.1%
  • #65,782
  • May 30, 2020 4:53pm May 30, 2020 4:53pm
EURAUD for me looks like a buy for 1.70

AUDUSD is getting rejected hard at 6680 so if it does break down from, it'll give the EURAUD long more reasoning, AUDUSD has been stubborn and staying up in price so its best to wait weather it breaks down or continues to rally
  • #65,783
  • May 30, 2020 6:52pm May 30, 2020 6:52pm
Quoting HockMan
{quote} Tks for info. Only can hope eu reverse asap. My average short 1.0835.
I think it will retest high area because lc month, week, and day were higher (I may be wrong, drop may have started). I also think it may be the last push toward 1137/12xx. before dropping I dont know how deep, 0770 held. Lc month higher has me a little worried about height. But it may drop within the month and later test the highs again toward the end of June.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #65,784
  • May 30, 2020 9:26pm May 30, 2020 9:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think it will retest high area because lc month, week, and day were higher (I may be wrong, drop may have started). I also think it may be the last push toward 1137/12xx. before dropping I dont know how deep, 0770 held. Lc month higher has me a little worried about height. But it may drop within the month and later test the highs again toward the end of June.
Tku. Hope eu break down. All the best to u and all in this forum.
  • #65,785
  • May 30, 2020 10:31pm May 30, 2020 10:31pm
Quoting HockMan
{quote} Tku. Hope eu break down. All the best to u and all in this forum.
since Friday closed higher. Monday may test near or above Friday's high. I will be looking for a drop signal. I think its coming, but a sign will help. I may get stopped out a few times. During the process. Nearer 0770 I will look for long signs. 095x is first.. All subject to tweaking.. Not looking to hold shorts closer to 0800. 0770 has to break and close on a higher time. It hasn't yet, so it's a support area to me.. 0935 is another to watch
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #65,786
  • May 31, 2020 4:05am May 31, 2020 4:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} since Friday closed higher. Monday may test near or above Friday's high. I will be looking for a drop signal. I think its coming, but a sign will help. I may get stopped out a few times. During the process. Nearer 0770 I will look for long signs. 095x is first.. All subject to tweaking.. Not looking to hold shorts closer to 0800. 0770 has to break and close on a higher time. It hasn't yet, so it's a support area to me.. 0935 is another to watch
do you think monday start bullish first or some correction at 1.107-1.105 and then friday high?
  • #65,787
  • May 31, 2020 4:57am May 31, 2020 4:57am
Tuesday will be the move for the week I expect it 1000 points across the board for about 10 pairs while others lag behind.
  • #65,788
  • May 31, 2020 6:35am May 31, 2020 6:35am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} do you think monday start bullish first or some correction at 1.107-1.105 and then friday high?
using Friday's move alone is on the chart.. The day closed higher and tested week resistance. The 4h retraced with a bearish engulfing candle at week R. It went up after hitting 1h support.

Later in the day after a retrace. The 1h and below turned up off bullish candles.. Friday's high, or the retrace low after look to be next. The month did close higher. The week closed higher (in a inside candle).

The day closed higher. I think chances are better than 50/50 the high area is to be tested. using the day candle while ignoring the rest. 1137 is a week close R. That's not saying it dont test 12xx. Markets makers want to put as much pain as they can. On those holding shorts nearer 0770. And later as much pain as those long at this near top.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #65,789
  • May 31, 2020 7:01am May 31, 2020 7:01am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} using Friday's move alone is on the chart.. The day closed higher and tested week resistance. The 4h retraced with a bearish engulfing candle at week R. It went up after hitting 1h support. Later in the day after a retrace. The 1h and below turned up off bullish candles.. Friday's high, or the retrace low after look to be next. The month did close higher. The week closed higher (in a inside candle). The day closed higher. I think chances are better than 50/50 the high area is to be tested. using the day candle while ignoring the rest. 1137...
Like me some short eu at 1.0750. Just hope my equity is enough and it is approaching dangerous level
  • #65,790
  • May 31, 2020 7:08am May 31, 2020 7:08am
https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-chart...paign=forecast

Just some views from different brokers/traders on EU.

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  • #65,791
  • May 31, 2020 7:17am May 31, 2020 7:17am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} using Friday's move alone is on the chart.. The day closed higher and tested week resistance. The 4h retraced with a bearish engulfing candle at week R. It went up after hitting 1h support. Later in the day after a retrace. The 1h and below turned up off bullish candles.. Friday's high, or the retrace low after look to be next. The month did close higher. The week closed higher (in a inside candle). The day closed higher. I think chances are better than 50/50 the high area is to be tested. using the day candle while ignoring the rest. 1137...
thanks
**all base on h1 chart and lower tf**
my broker friday close at 1.11073 (ff showing 1.11021)
why it's important? most of time when Ichimoku's kijun break price usually test the cloud.
according to my broker the price climb back above the kijun (1.11037) so it can go up to test friday high..

it doesnt really matter what move 1 or 2 came first.
i'm asking cause i found myself in kind of big volume short trades that can make force me close some positions if it go test the high first.
i notice that Germany,France and Swiss bank are closed Monday, so idk what this day open and London session can give us.
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  • #65,792
  • May 31, 2020 10:14am May 31, 2020 10:14am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} thanks **all base on h1 chart and lower tf** my broker friday close at 1.11073 (ff showing 1.11021) why it's important? most of time when Ichimoku's kijun break price usually test the cloud. according to my broker the price climb back above the kijun (1.11037) so it can go up to test friday high.. it doesnt really matter what move 1 or 2 came first. i'm asking cause i found myself in kind of big volume short trades that can make force me close some positions if it go test the high first. i notice that Germany,France and Swiss bank are closed...
When london closed Friday, it was 21 pips from high.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #65,793
  • May 31, 2020 10:27am May 31, 2020 10:27am
Quoting HockMan
{quote} Like me some short eu at 1.0750. Just hope my equity is enough and it is approaching dangerous level
the equity in your account is the only thing that matters. Choosing to hold a losing trade over time "in case it comes back is a losing strategy. Once you realise you were wrong, start cutting. Those positions will be cheaper later, at a better price. Most peoples mindset is to. Make every trade a winner once in a position. This will blow accounts. Traders have honestly evaluate their position. Being under 100 pips and cutting is hard. Being under 300 pips is easier out of necessity. Had one cut with 100 pip loss, they have bullets left. By the time down 300 pips, your out of margin. Your equity is in trouble.

You can fix this.. go back and look at the chart. Go look at the indicator you used (if it didnt repaint). When it looks like this next time, dont short. Keeping a record of when your trades went wrong is vital. You have an entire library of past pa on every chart. Throw some indicators up.. Screenshot where you see things going wrong. (where the trader should have closed losers) You can go back years and see this. Pick out a few screenshots of reversals. Look at them every day. Next time your in a trade and see the same screenshot pattern reversing on you. You want to close the trade.


I said your equity is the only thing important. When you close all losers. Your equity does not change. You then have a fresh slate to take advantage of. A losing trade is already lost in your equity. Don't blow an account chasing your losers.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #65,794
  • May 31, 2020 10:40am May 31, 2020 10:40am
trading liquidity 101 replace eu, or any pair, with (Barge)


http://www.nbcnews.com/id/4890829/ns.../#.XtPPoTpKhPY
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #65,795
  • May 31, 2020 11:22am May 31, 2020 11:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the equity in your account is the only thing that matters. Choosing to hold a losing trade over time "in case it comes back is a losing strategy. Once you realise you were wrong, start cutting. Those positions will be cheaper later, at a better price. Most peoples mindset is to. Make every trade a winner once in a position. This will blow accounts. Traders have honestly evaluate their position. Being under 100 pips and cutting is hard. Being under 300 pips is easier out of necessity. Had one cut with 100 pip loss, they have bullets left....
ps.. you can use the same reversal plan to close winners.. Pick a time frame to trade and stick with it. A 5 min chart is good for 5/10 pip,, a 15 min for 15/20 pips or so forth. As a general rule. Even more if the larger chart lines with the smaller. Use smaller for entry. You can't mix them if not agreement.. You can use the larger fresher ones, to get a direction bias. But these too change. The way to trade best is find out what fits you. Stay out when its not clear. This isn't a race. You will have losers.. Just put the odds in your favor. When things are not working.. Stop trading for a while.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #65,796
  • Edited 12:43pm May 31, 2020 12:28pm | Edited 12:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the equity in your account is the only thing that matters. Choosing to hold a losing trade over time "in case it comes back is a losing strategy. Once you realise you were wrong, start cutting. Those positions will be cheaper later, at a better price. Most peoples mindset is to. Make every trade a winner once in a position. This will blow accounts. Traders have honestly evaluate their position. Being under 100 pips and cutting is hard. Being under 300 pips is easier out of necessity. Had one cut with 100 pip loss, they have bullets left....
If I am trading Amazon, FB or google stocks.. yeah I will cut..since stocks can go up a lot with no retrace...but I am trading currency, I might think twice about cutting all positions.. since its more about one country fin policies against another. currency doesn't usually move in a straight line, it moves in waves most of time. If I use correct position size, I can either wait for next wave, either turn them into profits or cut them during the time with minimum loss.
Since a lot of time, once a trader cut all trades, they are afraid to pull the triggers again.. the big loss is too painful for them to be in the market again ...
For me, if you want to survive in trading, its important to use correct position size,, to trade small..so you can survive waves up and down,,..
  • #65,797
  • May 31, 2020 2:04pm May 31, 2020 2:04pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} If I am trading Amazon, FB or google stocks.. yeah I will cut..since stocks can go up a lot with no retrace...but I am trading currency, I might think twice about cutting all positions.. since its more about one country fin policies against another. currency doesn't usually move in a straight line, it moves in waves most of time. If I use correct position size, I can either wait for next wave, either turn them into profits or cut them during the time with minimum loss. Since a lot of time, once a trader cut all trades, they are afraid to...
Than you gained "the loss of opportunity". Compounding is the way to make money. Compounding is a way to lose money. Sometimes the pair dont go back to where it started. Meanwhile the looser compounds a loss. I know we haven't witnessed a big run in a while.

I think if 12xx holds, it could be R till 2021. What I dont like is, the month will close bullish. Off the 0770 tl bounce. Fib wise bounces from 88 % scare me..Added to the 20 year tl.. That wtf monthly candle 2 months earlier, often retest both ends.
I'm cautiously optimistic 1243 contains it.. But not feeling to to easy atm.. May's close will be a higher close, since 1.06xx. That's just the reality.

Nothing wrong with cutting all positions. Any cut below 1.09 are now 200 pips cheaper. That's 200 pips less drawdown. Atm any sells below 1.11 are negative.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #65,798
  • May 31, 2020 2:46pm May 31, 2020 2:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Than you gained "the loss of opportunity". Compounding is the way to make money. Compounding is a way to lose money. Sometimes the pair dont go back to where it started. Meanwhile the looser compounds a loss. I know we haven't witnessed a big run in a while. I think if 12xx holds, it could be R till 2021. What I dont like is, the month will close bullish. Off the 0770 tl bounce. Fib wise bounces from 88 % scare me..Added to the 20 year tl.. That wtf monthly candle 2 months earlier, often retest both ends. I'm cautiously...
Only its loss of opportunity if a trader can bravely enough to put the trades back on..if they don't put back trades, they lost the opportunities forever by flat all trades, unfortunately a lot of traders are afraid to pull the triggers after big loss , so they lose the chance to recover..
if you trade your position size small from the beginning with and manage well.. a lot of times those losing positions may turn into profits or cut them at smaller loss when time is right.....
  • #65,799
  • May 31, 2020 2:58pm May 31, 2020 2:58pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Only its loss of opportunity if a trader can bravely enough to put the trades back on..if they don't put back trades, they lost the opportunities forever by flat all trades, unfortunately a lot of traders are afraid to pull the triggers after big loss , so they lose the chance to recover.. if you trade your position size small from the beginning with and manage well.. a lot of times those losing positions may turn into profits or cut them at smaller loss when time is right.....
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #65,800
  • May 31, 2020 3:08pm May 31, 2020 3:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnV7...425ACCC4ECF9E7
I wasted a lot of my time today . I am out of here.. talk tomorrow
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