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vsa with Malcolm

  • #33,121
  • May 27, 2020 3:26am May 27, 2020 3:26am
Nice increase in volume today on H1 AUD, I did drop down to a M15 and there was a text book test which I started buying on right after I saw the increase in volume.

The 2nd bar I marked off is no selling pressure which was a clear indication price wasn't going down. If price does continue to rally, its a safe bet it will try to run the stops above the 2 bar reversal at the top.
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  • #33,122
  • May 27, 2020 3:37am May 27, 2020 3:37am
Quoting Danku
Hallo HiddenGap, Appreciate your help and analysis, very informative. Am currently demoing a strategy i put together for trading Indices and Crude Oil and was looking to find out if you would use the marked Bars (Bars with Arrows) for drawing your Supply/Demand Delta Zones .. I draw the SDD Zones using the UHVol. Bars off the 30 - Mins TF but was wondering if am doing this right .. Demo seems to suggest am doing it right because the success rate is good .. Thanks {quote} {image}
The volume and the rate of increase of volume on that yellow bar is amazing.
  • #33,123
  • May 27, 2020 4:59am May 27, 2020 4:59am
Quoting Anotan
Nice increase in volume today on H1 AUD, I did drop down to a M15 and there was a text book test which I started buying on right after I saw the increase in volume. The 2nd bar I marked off is no selling pressure which was a clear indication price wasn't going down. If price does continue to rally, its a safe bet it will try to run the stops above the 2 bar reversal at the top. {image}
About 35 pips from the close of the no selling pressure and about 26 pips from my average entry. With that much volume coming in, time to take my pips and run.
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  • #33,124
  • May 27, 2020 5:16am May 27, 2020 5:16am
Yes Anotan, really amazing. I used all 3 yesterday on Demo as am currently testing a strategy i wrote which using this as a Key point with other things and they worked out well. Today i used it on GER30 long and it worked out ...

Quoting Anotan
{quote} The volume and the rate of increase of volume on that yellow bar is amazing.
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  • #33,125
  • May 27, 2020 9:46am May 27, 2020 9:46am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} If you don't mind me asking. Your NS/Test bars, do they need to be in a certain location relative to the climatic action/delta zone? Or are you satisfied if the bar meets your volume/spread requirements?
I don't ever mind a question. That's what this thread is all about: traders helping traders. We're all teachers and we are all students.

Generally speaking, I would want to see a NS/Test interval within the range of the Climatic Action interval AND I would want at least one tick of the NS/Test to be on or in the Supply/Demand Delta Zone.

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Sometimes, however, I just need to see the NS/Test on or in the Supply/Demand Delta Zone after the appearance of Climatic Action.

I posted a picture of an obvious exception to my rule/desire of wanting the NS/Test in or on the Zone. In this case, the Test is clearly testing an area where there should be sellers (supply) after price exited the Supply/Demand Delta Zone.

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I consider this a "second chance" entry, but I am more apt to look for What I want to see, Where I want to see it.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,126
  • May 27, 2020 10:46am May 27, 2020 10:46am
Quoting Danku
[i] am currently demoing a strategy I put together for trading Indices and Crude Oil and was looking to find out if you would use the marked Bars (Bars with Arrows) for drawing your Supply/Demand Delta Zones .. I draw the SDD Zones using the UHVol. Bars off the 30 - Mins ... Demo seems to suggest am doing it right because the success rate is good .. Thanks
Thank you for your kind words.

I draw my Supply/Demand Delta Zones based on Wide Range Body (WRB) Analysis. WRB Analysis is distinct from VSA and enables a trader to understand the price action prior to any trade signal.

With that said, using the range of Ultra-High Volume bars off the 30 min chart is a perfectly legitimate way to determine Zones of interest. If it works for you, that's all that matters.

The Yellow arrow does point to an interval that appears to be a key change in the Supply/Demand Dynamic in the market that results in a valid Supply/Demand Delta Zone.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,127
  • Edited May 28, 2020 11:10am May 27, 2020 1:39pm | Edited May 28, 2020 11:10am
GBPUSD, if anyone was paying attention to this Pair esp. on the 4-hr TF, Pretty easy long .. CLASSIC VSA ...
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  • #33,128
  • May 28, 2020 11:31am May 28, 2020 11:31am
Another quick chart. Complete hindsight but a nice little set up on AUDUSD 1hr.

1. High volume with a good response on the subsequent bars.
2. Test back into this area after an initial rally. I'm sure some would use this as an entry.
3. No supply entry.
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  • #33,129
  • May 28, 2020 8:19pm May 28, 2020 8:19pm
Late in the day yesterday really odd spike in volume on a down bar closing off the lows. Today as the Asian market opens up a high volume test right into the trigger number of the late day volume spike.

I'm not too crazy about the high volume up bar that just printed so I took off 1/4 of my position and see if this will run to 1.53.
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  • #33,130
  • Edited 4:46am May 29, 2020 4:21am | Edited 4:46am
Quoting Anotan
Late in the day yesterday really odd spike in volume on a down bar closing off the lows. Today as the Asian market opens up a high volume test right into the trigger number of the late day volume spike. I'm not too crazy about the high volume up bar that just printed so I took off 1/4 of my position and see if this will run to 1.53. {image}
There was a test two bars after the high volume up bar, once I saw that test I just knew that price was going to push up so I bought as much as I could.

Nice way to end the month with at 21% trade. Have a great weekend.
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  • #33,131
  • May 29, 2020 5:30am May 29, 2020 5:30am
Hi guys,
question about stop placement,
for you folks that has a mental stop below entry bar, and a catastrophic stop under last swing high / swing low, which stop is your risk per trade (say 2%) based on?
  • #33,132
  • May 29, 2020 7:02am May 29, 2020 7:02am
Quoting whatdidido
Hi guys, question about stop placement, for you folks that has a mental stop below entry bar, and a catastrophic stop under last swing high / swing low, which stop is your risk per trade (say 2%) based on?
Asking people how much they risk per trade isn't the best idea.

A scalper who trades a M1 chart and take 20+ trades a day, 2% would probably be too much. A trader who trades D1 who may take 1 or 2 trades a month, 2% might not be enough.

A lot of people don't risk the same amount for every trade, they base their risk on how clear the setup is.

Its a good idea to keep a track of your actual trading statistics, your win rate/BE rate/risk to reward and you can use those numbers to give you an idea what is right for you.
  • #33,133
  • May 29, 2020 7:37am May 29, 2020 7:37am
Quoting whatdidido
Hi guys, question about stop placement, for you folks that has a mental stop below entry bar, and a catastrophic stop under last swing high / swing low, which stop is your risk per trade (say 2%) based on?
I think the best stop if you know that your position is not supported from the price movement anymore, no need to risk more pips or waiting the price to hit "normal" SL. That is the time for you to close your position and follow the price movement. It needs a good VSA understanding and also physical mental trading... imho
  • #33,134
  • Edited 4:25am Jun 1, 2020 4:06am | Edited 4:25am
still long bias my entry at 1.23981 target 50 pips (1.2450). I put it earlier in my trade journal thread. lets see.

My target is hit, if someone trade from the US session i prefer to wait the price to retrace before taking any position (I'm a trend follower so I trade normally only in direction of the trend). The minimum target for this up movement is still 100 pips away around 1.2590. I'm daily trader for me 50 pips daily is enough and i rarely trade from US session because of time zone its already late here.
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  • #33,135
  • Jun 1, 2020 10:49am Jun 1, 2020 10:49am
Quoting Cyberforex
{quote} I think the best stop if you know that your position is not supported from the price movement anymore, no need to risk more pips or waiting the price to hit "normal" SL. That is the time for you to close your position and follow the price movement. It needs a good VSA understanding and also physical mental trading... imho
“The best advice I can give to the ordinary guy trying to become a better trader is Learn to take losses. The most important thing in making money is not letting your losses get out of hand.”
-Marty Schwartz

https://tradeyouredge.com/trading-qu...arty-schwartz/
  • #33,136
  • Jun 1, 2020 9:55pm Jun 1, 2020 9:55pm
With all of the turmoil that is going on in the US, it was a safe bet USD was going to be sold.

USDCAD really was the perfect setup, May 27th during the USD session there was a high volume bar at the high of the day then again on May 29th the highest volume was at the high of the day and stopping at the trigger number of May 27th.

Yesterday I didn't see the trigger from the London session on May27th, what I saw was that price was completely below the daily open and I saw the failed test. I was watching the market on Bar A and saw how price popped up back into the failed test area for a second then was slammed down hard so I sold.

I dumped 1/3 of my position today and will hold the rest. I'd be very surprised if UC has any rallies this week. With that I probably won't open any more trades this week, I'll just be watching UC to see if it will come down to 1.5.
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  • #33,137
  • Jun 3, 2020 8:09pm Jun 3, 2020 8:09pm
Someone else posted the first video on another thread. Started watching the series and I can see some issues he talks about in myself. Posting these just in case they may help anyone else.

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Inserted Video


Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #33,138
  • Edited 3:31am Jun 5, 2020 3:20am | Edited 3:31am
Closed out UCAD trade.

On June 3rd there was climatic volume, the highest volume since April 21st, and yesterday some buyers did step in at the trigger number. The problem though is there was no follow through from the buyers, price wasn't able to make a HH. Normally I wouldn't be too concerned about buyers but today is NFP and 240 pips is hard to walk away from so I exited all of my trades.

Have a great weekend.
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  • #33,139
  • Jun 8, 2020 4:09am Jun 8, 2020 4:09am
Ever notice when I post people stop posting? That can't be good.

The pairs that I look at are all in a steady trend on higher TFs, H1 / H4.

CJ Friday with NFP created climatic action in volume and spread so there is a little concern (risk) with staying with trend, but watching the trigger number price has failed several times in closing below it, and even a test appeared. I think price is going to run the stop of the sellers who entered in early and I'm looking to close this around 82.

There is that climatic action, which means there is still some risk in sellers stepping in and taking price down.
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  • #33,140
  • Jun 8, 2020 9:02am Jun 8, 2020 9:02am
Quoting Anotan
Ever notice when I post people stop posting? That can't be good. The pairs that I look at are all in a steady trend on higher TFs, H1 / H4. CJ Friday with NFP created climatic action in volume and spread so there is a little concern (risk) with staying with trend, but watching the trigger number price has failed several times in closing below it, and even a test appeared. I think price is going to run the stop of the sellers who entered in early and I'm looking to close this around 82. There is that climatic action, which means there...
Took a loss on this trade, we knew there was some risk going in with the climatic volume and it didn't work out this time. I would take this trade again, especially at the very beginning of distribution phases price likes to test the trigger number and run stops.
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