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Trading Institutional Order Flow

  • #8,481
  • May 27, 2020 10:29am May 27, 2020 10:29am
I took this GBPUSD trade, i'll share the before and after when it's complete

D.B
  • #8,482
  • May 27, 2020 6:39pm May 27, 2020 6:39pm
Quoting D.B
GBP/USD {image} Daily {image} 4Hr {image} 1Hr D.B
Hey D.B

just an observation on the chart you posted
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200528-003533_Samsung Internet.jpg Size: 167 KB

On the gbpusd daily chart price seems to have started an uptrend
Do you consider that?
  • #8,483
  • May 27, 2020 8:39pm May 27, 2020 8:39pm
Quoting D.B
What I see on EURUSD now. I won't be trading this pair until things are clearer, simple. {image} D.B
Hi D.B,

Thanks for sharing. Yes I agree. Long term bearish bias on USD. Monthly SZ in control in DXY. Lot of room to go down. All USD pairs could go up.
  • #8,484
  • May 27, 2020 9:04pm May 27, 2020 9:04pm
Quoting Obiech
{quote} Hey D.B just an observation on the chart you posted {image} On the gbpusd daily chart price seems to have started an uptrend Do you consider that?
Hi Obiech,

Thanks for pointing that out, I noticed the structure but totally missed the trendline.
I appreciate that.

D.B
  • #8,485
  • May 27, 2020 9:24pm May 27, 2020 9:24pm
Quoting D.B
I took this GBPUSD trade, i'll share the before and after when it's complete D.B
Just fulfilling the promise I made earlier.

This is the entry I got on the GBPUSD trade I posted earlier and this is how the trade played out.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 135 KB


The 4Hr chart, the zone was well respected and left a long wick.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 124 KB


This is the 1Hr chart. After the first 3 hours price struggled but kept pushing through.

My analysis was posted earlier if anyone is curious as to why I took this trade.
My entry is not from the proximal line of the zone because I didn't have a limit set. So, when I noticed price was at the area I bought then.
I took partial profits twice and have just one position running with a trailing stop of 20 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 143 KB

On MT4 - The account is small as you can see below, but trust me, it'll grow.

D.B
  • #8,486
  • May 28, 2020 12:46am May 28, 2020 12:46am
Quoting D.B
GBP/USD {image} Daily {image} 4Hr {image} 1Hr D.B
Hi D.B,

Do you follow the TL broken or DZ/SZ eliminated rule to qualify a Curve SZ/DZ as well or that rule is only applicable to Entry TF DZ/SZ?

Thanks,
T
  • #8,487
  • May 28, 2020 10:44am May 28, 2020 10:44am
Quoting Teddy67
{quote} Hi D.B, Do you follow the TL broken or DZ/SZ eliminated rule to qualify a Curve SZ/DZ as well or that rule is only applicable to Entry TF DZ/SZ? Thanks, T
Hey Teddy,

Curve zones, to me, aren't any different from regular zones. It's just that they are farther away, i.e, not controlling price at the moment, and they are on your highest timeframe. As you know, the higher the timeframe the higher the probability of price having a strong reaction to the zone.

For Curve zones what I look for firstly are imbalances which have good, strong moves away and then I look for the removal of opposing S/D zones.

The TL broken rule isn't applicable to only Entry timeframes, it's applicable on any timeframe as a way of confirming a zone.

You must also remember that with the Trend Line Break rule, if the TL is broken, but price still respects the opposing zones still then nothing has changed. I only value TL breaks accompanied by the removal of opposing zones. Many times you will see broken TL's and no change in trend.

Hopefully I was clear and answered your question.

D.B
  • #8,488
  • May 28, 2020 11:23am May 28, 2020 11:23am
Hey
A question please
I don't yet fully understand what alphonso said when he said that if the trendline is broken then cps aren't part of the curve anymore and we should look for the extreme. Please can anyone clarify more on that. Thanks
  • #8,489
  • May 28, 2020 1:05pm May 28, 2020 1:05pm
Quoting Obiech
Hey A question please I don't yet fully understand what alphonso said when he said that if the trendline is broken then cps aren't part of the curve anymore and we should look for the extreme. Please can anyone clarify more on that. Thanks
Hey Obiech,
I'll try to explain.

First, we must make sure we understand what happens when a trendline is broken.
A broken trendline indicates that the trend may change soon.
Let's say the previous trend was a downtrend, if the trendline which was previously being respected is suddenly broken, it is fair to say that the bulls are now taking over the market; In supply/demand terminology, there are now more buy orders than there are sell orders present and these orders must be filled.

Why would this make CP zones not tradable?
This is because CP Zones zones, by nature, are "weaker" or hold less orders than the Extreme levels which start/end trends.
These CP zones should only be taken when price is retracing within a trend.

From the example earlier, a downwards trendline was broken and let's say an uptrend is now forming.
What will be most likely to happen when price encounters an opposing CP Zone?
It will fill all the orders at that zone and keep heading upwards because, in most scenarios, a typical CP zone doesn't have enough orders there to change the market direction considerably.
The zones located at the extreme/curve have significantly more orders waiting to be filled than at a CP zone, so trading from these levels is much higher probability.

In summary, When a trendline is broken and the market is beginning to trend in the opposite direction, it is wiser to trade from the extremes and not the CP zones as CP zones present a lower probability of working in our favor due to the small number of orders there.

Trading from CP zones can and will work sometimes, certainly, but we're playing a probability game here and picking the zones most likely to go in our favor is the better alternative.

It's been some months since i've listened to Alfonso, forgive me if I don't use his terminologies.
Anyone else feel free to correct me.

Regards,
D.B
  • #8,490
  • May 28, 2020 5:38pm May 28, 2020 5:38pm
Quoting D.B
{quote} Hey Teddy, Curve zones, to me, aren't any different from regular zones. It's just that they are farther away, i.e, not controlling price at the moment, and they are on your highest timeframe. As you know, the higher the timeframe the higher the probability of price having a strong reaction to the zone. For Curve zones what I look for firstly are imbalances which have good, strong moves away and then I look for the removal of opposing S/D zones. The TL broken rule isn't applicable to only Entry timeframes, it's applicable on any timeframe...
Hi D.B,

Thank you for the clarification. Understood.

One more question please. In EURUSD chart, I have marked Curve DZ/SZ zones. But the SZ didn't achieve a TL break or a DZ removal. So will you consider that as your curve SZ? The area is fresh though.
For Curve DZ, there is one more DBR zone above the one I marked as Curve DZ. But that zone hasn't achieved anything yet. So will you consider that a Curve DZ considering that the move away is good and area is fresh.

Sorry for asking this again. This is where I get confused most of the time.

Thank you
T
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.png Size: 57 KB
  • #8,491
  • May 28, 2020 6:46pm May 28, 2020 6:46pm
EURUSD possible pullback down, than more bullish move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 43 KB
  • #8,492
  • May 28, 2020 9:10pm May 28, 2020 9:10pm
Quoting Techanalyst
EURUSD possible pullback down, than more bullish move. {image}

Way too ambitious target above. Better see other obstacle on the way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0.png Size: 138 KB
  • #8,493
  • May 28, 2020 10:15pm May 28, 2020 10:15pm
Quoting vinz3316
{quote} Way too ambitious target above. Better see other obstacle on the way. {image}
Possible.
  • #8,494
  • May 29, 2020 6:06am May 29, 2020 6:06am
Quoting SunnyChopper
Don't you just love it when all you need is to see someone else's charts to understand what you're doing wrong. Finally starting to understand institutional order flow a bit better. However, just to check myself, can someone please validate my statements. If prices move drastically from one "zone" or "area", that becomes a zone of interest for us retail traders because of massive moves are created by the forex titans. So basically we are just looking into zones with large price movements. I will definitely also look more into the course suggested...
Hello, What course? I just joined this thread and I am still trying to figure out the steps to take. Most of what I am reading here looks advanced. Is there step by step process that I have missed? Thanks
  • #8,495
  • May 31, 2020 3:43am May 31, 2020 3:43am
Quoting Teddy67
{quote} Hi D.B, Thank you for the clarification. Understood. One more question please. In EURUSD chart, I have marked Curve DZ/SZ zones. But the SZ didn't achieve a TL break or a DZ removal. So will you consider that as your curve SZ? The area is fresh though. For Curve DZ, there is one more DBR zone above the one I marked as Curve DZ. But that zone hasn't achieved anything yet. So will you consider that a Curve DZ considering that the move away is good and area is fresh. Sorry for asking this again. This is where I get confused most of the time....
Hello Teddy67
Welcome to T.I.O.F

If i may, regarding your question on the EURUSD, i have attached some of my thoughts on the chart below.

In addition, to also note that when assessing zones, it is important to realise that the freshness, move away, removal of opposing zones etc, are all assessments
of a zone that are very important especially when taken together. No singular one taken alone by itself is enough. Some are slightly more important than
others for sure but none of them taken individually is the sole determining factor of a quality assessment

best wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD FF 31520.PNG Size: 66 KB
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #8,496
  • May 31, 2020 5:32am May 31, 2020 5:32am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello Teddy67 Welcome to T.I.O.F If i may, regarding your question on the EURUSD, i have attached some of my thoughts on the chart below. In addition, to also note that when assessing zones, it is important to realise that the freshness, move away, removal of opposing zones etc, are all assessments of a zone that are very important especially when taken together. No singular one taken alone by itself is enough. Some are slightly more important than others for sure but none of them taken individually is the sole determining factor of a quality...
It's gonna sell,as a clear rejection is seen in that OB
  • #8,497
  • May 31, 2020 7:13am May 31, 2020 7:13am
Quoting D.B
{quote} Hey Obiech, I'll try to explain. First, we must make sure we understand what happens when a trendline is broken. A broken trendline indicates that the trend may change soon. Let's say the previous trend was a downtrend, if the trendline which was previously being respected is suddenly broken, it is fair to say that the bulls are now taking over the market; In supply/demand terminology, there are now more buy orders than there are sell orders present and these orders must be filled. Why would this make CP zones not tradable? This is because...


Thanks D.B
This explains a lot
I appreciate it
  • #8,498
  • May 31, 2020 7:25am May 31, 2020 7:25am
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello Teddy67 Welcome to T.I.O.F If i may, regarding your question on the EURUSD, i have attached some of my thoughts on the chart below. In addition, to also note that when assessing zones, it is important to realise that the freshness, move away, removal of opposing zones etc, are all assessments of a zone that are very important especially when taken together. No singular one taken alone by itself is enough. Some are slightly more important than others for sure but none of them taken individually is the sole determining factor of a quality...


Hey AKT
An observation please
it seems you don't consider zones that took out trendlines as a valid zone.
Please is there any reason why?

Here's a picture of my chart when considering zones that took at trendlines also.
Please correct me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200531-131948_MetaTrader 4.jpg Size: 525 KB
  • #8,499
  • May 31, 2020 10:54am May 31, 2020 10:54am
When trading the weekly, daily and 4hr tf

Please is this a vaild supply zone to consider as a weekly curve
The zone didn't achieve anything but it is on the weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20200531-165040_MetaTrader 4.jpg Size: 457 KB
  • #8,500
  • Edited 6:32pm May 31, 2020 5:24pm | Edited 6:32pm
Quoting Akt
{quote} Hello Teddy67 Welcome to T.I.O.F If i may, regarding your question on the EURUSD, i have attached some of my thoughts on the chart below. In addition, to also note that when assessing zones, it is important to realise that the freshness, move away, removal of opposing zones etc, are all assessments of a zone that are very important especially when taken together. No singular one taken alone by itself is enough. Some are slightly more important than others for sure but none of them taken individually is the sole determining factor of a quality...
Thank you AKT for the clarification.

I am still not clear on the curve identification. The curve identification is very important since that determines the location of the entry zone w.r.t to the curve.
So to identify curve, are we just looking for big moves away or we also look for zones that take out opposing zones?

Regards,
T
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