Trading with Luke

Standard range plays. The market spends most of its time ranging, not breaking out

After closing my long GBP/USD yesterday, I waited for retrace to get in.

I saw a sizeable bearish candle form on the hourly, so I entered right at the open of the next hourly candle, with SL 12 pips, just below the low of the bearish candle.
I posted about it yesterday on the Cable Update thread.

Here's the initial entry with chart I posted yesterday...

...and how it has developed so far

Took a small short on the EUR/GBP. I am shorting as price approaches the top of what I believe may be an uptrend exhaustion candle on the 4-hour chart. Posted about that candle in the Cable Update thread earlier today

4hr chart I posted earlier


And view of my trade on the 15min chart

Stop loss is very small, just a few pips above the high of 0.8960, the high of said 4-hour candle

This is what the EUR/GBP gamble looks like on the current 4-hour chart

Hello again.

I just closed my long GBP.USD trade for 70 pips profit.

I am still short EUR.GBP

Hello everyone.

Got stopped on my EURGBP short today , so -14 pips on this one

However, this is still a good potential R/R so not abandoning the thought of a short yet.

EUR/USD is also looking interesting for a range play short on the dailies

New short on the EURGBP

Goodnight from me and good luck!

Hello!

Earlier today, I closed 2 GBP longs that I had taken yesterday, one at 1.2190 and one smaller a bit higher. The price rose for a bit but then stalled, so I raised stop loss to between the two positions. During the night and over to London open, the price slid more and took me out. Lost 16 pips overall here.

I also entered a FTSE long now, as the price has retraced 50% of its last leg up and I am betting it will want to take out the top of the bearish engulfing of April 29, so this might be the place from which to start rising again in order to achieve that.

Update on my EUR/GBP shorts. Not much action here yet, either way

Well yesterday London and NY were closed for a public holiday, so there was predictably little action.

The trading week in essence began today, so I guess it's time for an update on my

Long FTSE 100
Long GBP/USD and
Short EUR/GBP positions from last week.

First, the EUR/GBP shorts. Not much movement yet, but hopefully the price will continue to decline as I speculated

Updated 4-hour EUR/GBP chart

Next, my FTSE 100 LONG gamble, which as I posted on post #49 on this thread, I entered into as the price bounced off the 50% retracement level of the prior leg up.

My target is the high of the "bearish engulfing" daily candle of April 29, which I suspected was a bear trap and posted about this elsewhere in this forum a few days ago

Price is now approaching target

Third and final update, my GBP/USD LONG gamble, which I took on 22 May as the price was crawling around 1.2170 and posted about it on the "Cable Update" thread at the time.

Original entry



and

update

The reason for the GBP/USD gamble is this view of what the market possibly had in mind for Cable on the dailies.

I posted this first on the Cable Update thread, on 11th May

Daily chart on 11th May:

Hello again

Well, I just added a short EUR/USD gamble. I was watching price after it posted a big bullish engulfing candle on the hourly charts 4 hours earlier. Which, as I have said before, is a signal of potential exhaustion of an uptrend, when it appears after an already established bull run like this.

Also, on the daily chart, the price has reached once again the top of its multi-week range. The market ranges most of the time. So you want to assume that the range will HOLD rather than BREAK. You therefore want to

- SELL near the top of the range
- BUY near the bottom of the range
- AVOID buying OR selling when in the middle of the range (that's no-man's land)

or DO NOTHING if you don't like trading ranges

Since I am already long GBP/USD and short EUR/GBP, this EUR/USD short is basically an attempt to add to my EUR/GBP short, but synthetically

What I see happening is the EUR/GBP continuing to be driven down for now, by alternative phases of EUR/USD diving and GBP/USD rising

For now.

I have for now exited these GBP/USD long trades for around 165 pips profit.

Still short EUR/GBP and EUR/USD, and still long FTSE100

I know I said I don't particularly like to trade the USDCAD


But some opportunities are too good to not try and take.

new Trade: LONG USD/CAD
4-hour chart attached

Morning/afternoon!

Time to update on speculative positions.

EUR/GBP shorts

This morning bit after London open I was been stopped out of my EUR/GBP short when price spiked about 0.8918. I expected that rise when I saw price action on other pairs yesterday evening, but anyway I kept this on as it's a less volatile pair and I thought EUR would decline more aggresively, ragging this pair with it. As i is, this trade left me with an average of only just over 50 pips profit per position. Much less than I was aiming for. But I may re-enter short later

FTSE Long speculative position , taken @5898 on May 22nd, closed @ 6142 for 244 pips profit.

My target was the green line, which is prior daily candle high as mentioned before, but watching the price live and the movements of currency pairs, I decided to close it manually and move on, as it was nearly at target anyway. As I had mentioned on post #52, this was merely a long play off the 50% fib retracement level, as I was expecting price to reach for that April 29 high, and the 50% fib retracement of a prior uptrend, plus, more importantly, the TIME AND DAY of the week when it happened , made me want to try long at that level.

I am still

short EUR/USD
long USD/CAD

Will probably avoid USD/JPY and Cable for the next few days. Well, maybe not the USD/JPY, but I need to see better levels to take a position there.

Good luck!