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Bronco Capital's ABCD Harmonic Pattern Journal 94 replies

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The Bucking Bronco

  • #6,061
  • Edited 10:46pm May 22, 2020 10:34pm | Edited 10:46pm
Good morning to all the people that will use the weekend to study!

DAX H1 update.
Charts speak. Price rose sharply.
An essentially unabated climb off support has propelled the index through range resistance.
It was a powerful “show of strength” confirmed by the quality of the close.

About my entry of yesterday.
Trading to me it's all about clear Points of Reference and clear Mental Road Map.
If you can learn to follow the price action, you will be two steps ahead of the game because price is faster than any derivative indicator.
You may have heard the saying, “The only truth is the current PRICE.”
Your job as a trader will become ten times easier once you accept this.
This means ignoring news, opinions, and personal biases.
Watching price action can actually be very confusing if you go about it like a ship without her sails up in an ocean squall.
You will get tossed back and forth with no sense of direction and no sense of purpose.
So study (the right things) and fix your Rules and your Points of References.

And for the pleasure of the ignorants...
if the entry the other day was the result of an explicit lesson from W.D. Gann,
yesterday's entry is the result of an explicit lesson from both: W.D. Gann and Jesse Livermore. ROFL
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  • #6,062
  • May 22, 2020 10:37pm May 22, 2020 10:37pm
Quoting mag00
maybe... ... still in the second wave ...
Thanks mag00.
I am always very interested in your charts which I always find stimulating.
(even if on the maximum limit of my rule n°3 post n°1, I must say)
As you know, I don't count Elliott in detail. I don't even try. I am content with the basic structure when it hits my eyes hard.
Now...
For me the general answer to the riddle is visible in the simplicity of the D1.

P.S. I'm afraid to ask (for fear of the answer). ROFL
What do you mean by "Tex style"?
I know you are referring to the Italian comic series ... and in fact I see myself a bit like a "lone rider" ... but I'm curious to hear from you.
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  • #6,063
  • May 22, 2020 10:51pm May 22, 2020 10:51pm
Quoting Jupiter
About my entry of yesterday.
Part of studying price behaviour (and gaining experience as a trader) is gradually learning what actions to anticipate.
Then you must learn what the market’s most probable response or outcome should be.
It will always be easier to anticipate an event or response which happens 70% of the time than to be looking for that which happens only 30% of the time.
However, it can also be a profitable strategy to recognize when a given signal or expected response is failing.
Sometimes a failed signal can be more profitable than the normal expected response.
  • #6,064
  • Edited May 23, 2020 4:12am May 22, 2020 11:48pm | Edited May 23, 2020 4:12am
Quoting EddyL
Maybe tarot cards?
It's all about pre-planned sequences.
It's all about education, studies and preparation before and outside the Battlefield.
Watching for details...
in my trading, as in a cocktail, there is a percentage of Pure Reaction and a percentage of Anticipation of Probable Patterns Results.
The recipe is not fixed. The components are variable according to the general conditions.
But in any case it is the physical observation of the existence of an objective signal: Set-ups and Patterns (Western and Eastern).
  • #6,065
  • May 23, 2020 12:40am May 23, 2020 12:40am
Quoting Jupiter
The components are variable according to the general conditions..
Conditions are always imperfect!
You must allow yourself to fail. Allow for human limitations and incorrect choices.
Reserve compassion for yourself and your limitations.
But try to be better each day! Strive to be better.
  • #6,066
  • May 23, 2020 12:41am May 23, 2020 12:41am
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  • #6,067
  • Edited 1:03am May 23, 2020 12:50am | Edited 1:03am
Money (and Risk) Management:
Scale in and scale out of trades. That’s one aspect of money management on which I concentrate. I’m always scaling out of trades.
Put yourself in a win/win situation. Take some money off the board; take partial profits.
That way you can’t lose. If it then goes against you, at least you locked in something.
If it goes your way, you still have bullets to play with.
Don’t get greedy. Leave something on the table, it's OK! Trade always in control.
In this the capabilities and possibilities of my platform (partial closing of each, single position) help me every day in an immense way!

Finally, when a market closes against me, the odds suggest that it will go even further against me. So I get out.
I can always get back in the next candles at a better price (or turn to re-align with the new direction!)
That’s my rule.
I don’t view it as taking a loss – I’m just playing for better position!
I pay something for new info. And it works!

I'm copying from my notes on my Moleskines...
There is a lot of Linda Raschke in these words.
We have very different tactics but the same, identical mindset and culture! (And love for horses and music!)
I love this woman. It's not a secret.
  • #6,068
  • May 23, 2020 1:06am May 23, 2020 1:06am
Linda... Street Smart quote. Delicious perfection. Welcome to my Universe.
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  • #6,069
  • May 23, 2020 1:11am May 23, 2020 1:11am
I'm a lone rider on Forex Factory, but as you can see I'm in good, intellectual company.
With my feet (and head) firmly planted in the History of Trading.
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  • #6,070
  • May 23, 2020 5:06am May 23, 2020 5:06am
Quoting Jupiter
The Reversal Formation on my m1... my broker's data feed. Comment it. Study it. (It's a classic Vic Sperandeo Pattern but with a strong retest) Memorize it. I hate all the ignorants and arrogants in this business. I was too tired to follow down (the action was very slow). And, as usual I turned off. Damn... If I had my office with some young juniors and seniors, working 24/24! ROFL As I said many times: we, traders in slippers, we are just a bunch of miserables... against the most sophisticated and prepared brains on the planet. {image}
Yes, I saw that resistance and was aware of possible reversal. That was the reason I squared my long trade. Unfortunatelly I had to leave and thus I missed the short entry. And it was a beauty indeed. At least I was able to enter in retracement. And yes, there was a handbrake long possibility at the end of the move. I missed it.
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  • #6,071
  • Edited 6:58am May 23, 2020 5:44am | Edited 6:58am
Great job. So natural, absolutely not forced! I'm really touched by the work of these nice guys! Bravi!
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  • #6,072
  • May 23, 2020 5:51am May 23, 2020 5:51am
One better than the other... amazing!
I was 14 when I bought my first Beatles record!
I've been playing these songs all my life, I know each single note and voice... I know it's not easy to get a result like that.
Mine is pure envy and admiration!

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  • #6,073
  • May 23, 2020 6:16am May 23, 2020 6:16am
I'm killing the replay button. Can’t get enough of these guys. Wow.
As I said - with my usual "badness"... - if you listen with attention you'll discover all the little mistakes and imprecisions... LOL
but the general impression is full of power and life!
  • #6,074
  • May 23, 2020 6:37am May 23, 2020 6:37am
Quoting Jupiter
Money (and Risk) Management: Scale in and scale out of trades. That’s one aspect of money management on which I concentrate. I’m always scaling out of trades. Put yourself in a win/win situation. Take some money off the board; take partial profits. That way you can’t lose
First I was scared of losses. But with probing method it is much easier. If you are wrong - you are wrong. Small loss taken. If market will prove you right and you are at the beginning of the move, you have some pushes ahead to participate. Profits are (almost) unlimited.
  • #6,075
  • Edited 12:19pm May 23, 2020 11:42am | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} Thanks mag00. I am always very interested in your charts which I always find stimulating. (even if on the maximum limit of my rule n°3 post n°1, I must say) As you know, I don't count Elliott in detail. I don't even try. I am content with the basic structure when it hits my eyes hard. Now... For me the general answer to the riddle is visible in the simplicity of the D1. P.S. I'm afraid to ask (for fear of the answer). ROFL What do you mean by "Tex style"? I know you are referring to the Italian comic series ... and in fact I see myself a...
it is difficult to obtain it but ...
... the "correct" count is fundamental
(in the probabilistic prediction of Elliott)

Look,
how changing the count,
approximating it to the elliottian way,
also changes one's future perspective ...
(compared to the previous graphs)


P.S.
reading you, I focused on Te(x)'s skills (and powers)
Tex Willer - Wikipedia
(cavallerizzo, abile stratega, colt...o)
(It is a pleasure to read you in your decision-making thoughts:
I learn, now, move after move of your skill as a strategist ...)
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... panta rei ... (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535-475 BC)
  • #6,076
  • May 23, 2020 12:36pm May 23, 2020 12:36pm
Quoting ole3
...with probing method it is much easier...
Pure Jesse Livermore's style. You got it right.
  • #6,077
  • May 23, 2020 12:38pm May 23, 2020 12:38pm
Quoting mag00
It is a pleasure to read you in your decision-making thoughts...
I call it "Baby Elephant Walk". Pure Gann's approach.
  • #6,078
  • May 23, 2020 12:39pm May 23, 2020 12:39pm
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  • #6,079
  • May 23, 2020 10:40pm May 23, 2020 10:40pm
Quoting mag00
your skill as a strategist...
The Main Principle of Peak Performance is confidence in yourself, your methodology, and your ability to succeed.
Some people are naturally born confident.
Other people are able to translate success from another area in their life. Perhaps they were good in sports, music, or academics growing up.
And then there’s also the old-fashioned “hard work” way of getting confidence.
Begin by researching and developing different systems or methodologies.
Put in the hours of practice and verifications.
Tweak and modify the Method/Approach so as to make them your own.
Study the charts until you’ve memorized every significant swing high or low.
Self-confidence comes from developing a methodology that YOU believe in.

Read the tape.
Follow the Trend.

Success results from years of painstaking effort and absolute concentration...
It requires the devotion of one's whole time and attention...
You should have no other business or profession... "A MAN CANNOT SERVE TWO MASTERS"... and the Tape is a tyrant !!!
One cannot become a Tape Reader by giving "Mother Market" absent treatment.
He should spend a relevant amount of hours a a day at the screen...
and a lot of hours away from it, studying his mistakes and finding the "why" of his misunderstandings..

The Tape Reader evolves himself into a "trading machine"
which takes note of a situation, weighs it, decides upon a course and gives an order.
There is no acceleration of the pulse, no nervousness, no hopes or fears concerning his actions.
The result produces neither elation nor depression: there is calmness before, during and after the trade.

Richard Wyckoff: - "The Tape Reader is like a fine train... which travels smoothly and steadily along the tracks."
  • #6,080
  • May 23, 2020 10:48pm May 23, 2020 10:48pm
Linda Ratshcke:
"Stay involved in the process, the technique, the moment, and the proverbial here and now!
A trader must concentrate on the present price action of the market.
A good analogy is a professional tennis player who focuses only on the point at hand.
He’ll probably lose half the points he plays, but he doesn’t allow himself to worry about whether or not he’s down a set.
He must have confidence that by concentrating on the techniques he’s worked on in practice, the strengths in his game will prevail
and he will be able to outlast his opponent."

Try to think like that when you deploy yours scouts on the battlefield.
With a mindset like this it is (theoretically) possible to lose only some scouts and never lose one trade!
Try to think about it.

P.S.
About the Richard Dennis' "Tabula Rasa" concept.
That is interesting.
Whenever I abandon the "now" to do something I think smart ... she goes the other way!
That always confirms my idea.
Better to be living in the present, flexible and fluid.
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