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vsa with Malcolm

  • #33,101
  • May 22, 2020 11:05am May 22, 2020 11:05am
Hi, All. I am a new member and avid follower/ learner of Wckoffian/ VSA.
Yes I would agree that Ryanair is in accumulation phase after SC in March. It also had multiple tests post SC and looks like poised for markup anytime soon!
  • #33,102
  • May 22, 2020 11:10am May 22, 2020 11:10am
Hi, I was also looking at below chart (NSE BankNifty) today and found few interesting bars towards the closing of the market. Any comments on Bars 1-5?
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  • #33,103
  • May 22, 2020 3:00pm May 22, 2020 3:00pm
market hitting supply zone
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background of GBPUSD
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i went in early after fib zone rejection without waiting for SOW and confirmation after high volumes. so a little bit wait could have given at least 3%/R whatever you take as risk
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  • #33,104
  • May 22, 2020 9:00pm May 22, 2020 9:00pm
Quoting PALearn
Hi, I was also looking at below chart (NSE BankNifty) today and found few interesting bars towards the closing of the market. Any comments on Bars 1-5? {image}
Why don't you tell us what you think is going on?
  • #33,105
  • May 22, 2020 9:15pm May 22, 2020 9:15pm
Quoting attique08
market hitting supply zone {image} {image} background of GBPUSD {image} i went in early after fib zone rejection without waiting for SOW and confirmation after high volumes. so a little bit wait could have given at least 3%/R whatever you take as risk {image}
Do whatever you think is best for your trading, but I think your RR is moving in the wrong direction.
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  • #33,106
  • May 22, 2020 11:59pm May 22, 2020 11:59pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Do whatever you think is best for your trading, but I think your RR is moving in the wrong direction. {image}
I'll agree without an iota of doubt. Just didn't want to keep any position opened at weekend.
  • #33,107
  • May 23, 2020 4:38am May 23, 2020 4:38am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Why don't you tell us what you think is going on?
Hi - please see below my comments on the chart - happy to learn through members comments/ analysis -

The graph has been in accumulation phase post SC in March 2020. After a brief rally - Bar 1 is formed, which looks like a No Supply bar (on low volume) and we can also consider it as NR2.
Bar 2 - market tries to rally up again on low volume but was engulfed by a 2bar Reversal through Bar 3. There was no follow up (in Bar 4), which means Bar 3 was a Shakeout Bar.
Bar 5 - a nice UP bar on above average volume which led to Bar 6 (EOM).
  • #33,108
  • May 24, 2020 1:00am May 24, 2020 1:00am
Quoting PALearn
{quote} Hi - please see below my comments on the chart - happy to learn through members comments/ analysis - The graph has been in accumulation phase post SC in March 2020. After a brief rally - Bar 1 is formed, which looks like a No Supply bar (on low volume) and we can also consider it as NR2. Bar 2 - market tries to rally up again on low volume but was engulfed by a 2bar Reversal through Bar 3. There was no follow up (in Bar 4), which means Bar 3 was a Shakeout Bar. Bar 5 - a nice UP bar on above average volume which led to Bar 6 (EOM).
Bar 1 - You called this bar a No Supply bar, which a no supply bar is a narrow range down bar and low volume. This bar looks like its closes level with the previous close, so it's not a no supply.

Bar 2 and 3 does kind of look like a 2 bar reversal, but look at that spike of volume that came in on bar 3, its a huge increase in volume. Which we know that when you see a big influx of volume on a down bar you have to be very careful of buyers.

Bar 4 is a hidden test. Hidden tests are hard to see because the close up, but the bottom tail of bar 4 tried to drop below the close of bar 3, but couldn't.

The thing that sticks out to me in Bar A, Bar A has the biggest increase in volume on the chart, we have to see this bar. The next bar from A closes down so we know that sellers are present on Bar A. But look at Bar B, Bar B tries to push through the low of Bar A, but it does this on decreasing volume and the next bar after Bar B closes up. This tells us that sellers are not interested.

Its a hard setup to see, but entry could have been made on Bar 4 after we've seen that sellers weren't interested on Bar B.
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  • #33,109
  • May 24, 2020 4:18am May 24, 2020 4:18am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Bar 1 - You called this bar a No Supply bar, which a no supply bar is a narrow range down bar and low volume. This bar looks like its closes level with the previous close, so it's not a no supply. Bar 2 and 3 does kind of look like a 2 bar reversal, but look at that spike of volume that came in on bar 3, its a huge increase in volume. Which we know that when you see a big influx of volume on a down bar you have to be very careful of buyers. Bar 4 is a hidden test. Hidden tests are hard to see because the close up, but the bottom tail of...
Thanks Anotan for your analysis. It's indeed really helpful; esp. the background conditions (Bar A and B). Yes, even I took a trade on Bar 5 but exited quickly.
  • #33,110
  • May 24, 2020 9:02am May 24, 2020 9:02am
Quoting PALearn
Hi, I was also looking at below chart (NSE BankNifty) today and found few interesting bars towards the closing of the market. Any comments on Bars 1-5? {image}
can I also share my thought on the chart?

from only the data available to the left, my view wouldve been bearish and not bullish. Weakness everywhere in the background.

Saying that, bar 6 is the best entry (long) on the chart if it wasnt market close.

-Market made a LL with increasing volume.
-Bar A, a buying climax, all this volume, failed to break resistance nor hold the level it attempted to break, achieved nothing.
-As price reacts to B, EoM down w sustained volume, active selling, breaks 2 levels of structure. This occurs right after weakness (BC). Importantly, wiped out the entire bar A and look how quick it did so.
-At this point i would be looking for a weak rally to resistance to go short. why? BC at resistance, active selling at resistance, the above action tells us supply is still active in the market.
-Because of above (weakness), Bar 1 and 2, should be interpreted as no demand bars.
-Bar 3: a textbook 2 bar top reversal both in price action, and volume. We would expect to see downside follow through the next bar.
-Bar 6 is a classic BUEC setup, excellent context and structure to go long, why? Three bouts of strength

X) wave B was unable to test support (strength)
Y) disconfirmed weakness via bar 3 (strength)
Z) as market rallies, volume increases

However, we don't know any of X nor Y until bar C prints. The view was still bearish all the way until this bar has printed. The bar itself is a breakout / SoS bar, that breaks two levels of resistance, with increasing volume during the rally. Compare the rally of wave A and C
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  • #33,111
  • May 24, 2020 1:00pm May 24, 2020 1:00pm
This is in response to a DM I received. I can't add a picture to a DM, so I'm making this post.

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The Relative Volume indicator is from Tradeguider. However, the color scheme is not.

You can replicate the background with a Bollinger Bands. You might start with a moving average of 20 periods and the first set of bands at 1.5 standard deviations and the second set at 2.5.

As for the colors:

(1) BLUE: Volume on this interval is greater than the volume on the previous interval. Volume is increasing.

(2) RED: Volume on this interval is less than the volume on the previous interval. Volume is decreasing.

(3) PINK: Volume on this interval is less than the volume on the previous two intervals.

(4) BLACK: Volume on this interval is greater than all the volume of the previous 19 intervals. Highest volume in 20 intervals. Climatic volume.

(5) YELLOW: Volume on this interval is less than all the volume of the previous 19 intervals. Lowest volume in 20 intervals. Minimal professional activity.

(6) GREY (not shown): Volume on this interval is equal to the volume on the previous interval.

I can't program for MT4 or MT5. A former participant of this thread did program a volume indicator with these parameters called "HiddenGAP volume". But as I said, I did not create it, nor can I speak to its accuracy.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,112
  • May 24, 2020 9:23pm May 24, 2020 9:23pm
today is holiday in UK and USA, i dont think we will see a big movement today. So I will make it holiday for trading too.
enjoy your time with family.
  • #33,113
  • May 24, 2020 11:14pm May 24, 2020 11:14pm
Quoting HiddenGap
. A former participant of this thread did program a volume indicator with these parameters called "HiddenGAP volume". But as I said, I did not create it, nor can I speak to its accuracy.
I always wondered if you wrote the HiddenGap volume indicator.
  • #33,114
  • May 24, 2020 11:30pm May 24, 2020 11:30pm
As a healthy debate.

I'm not a fan of the relative volume indicator. If you look at HiddenGap's post the indicator has you focused on the high volume up bar. It draws your focus away from Bar A. The volume on Bar A has a nice increase of volume from the previous bar, plus the previous bar is a no supply like bar showing a lack of selling.

So on Bar A its like the switch was turned from Off to On! Mark off the close and we see a rejection of the trigger number at Bar B, a 2 bar reversal at Bar C and finally an easy to see hidden test on Bar D.
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  • #33,115
  • May 25, 2020 11:46am May 25, 2020 11:46am
Quoting Anotan
If you look at HiddenGap's post the indicator has you focused on the high volume up bar.
First of all, it does not have you focused on the high volume UP bar. It has you focused on the high volume bar.

Secondly, I would argue that 99.9% of traders are better off starting with a Climatic Volume bar. These bars are the most obvious and show the largest amount of professional activity.

We can define Climatic volume in a few ways:

(1) The volume bar is BLACK.

(2) The volume bar is into the pink/salmon area of the histogram.

(3) The volume bar is both (1) and (2).

Thirdly, I would argue that 99.9% of traders are better off using a Low Volume bar as their entry signal bar.

We can define Low volume bar in a few ways:

(1) The volume bar is less than average

(2) The volume bar is PINK.

(3) The volume bar is YELLOW.

Fourthly, awsome analysis.

But what you showed only makes the point that at the highest levels, you still need to read the volume.

I do not see A as high volume. It is less than average. In fact, it is less than the volume two intervals prior. However, it is a down bar on increasing volume that closes near its low with the next interval UP. There must have been some Demand on that bar for the next interval to close up. Not only did it close up but it took out the high. So we know there are some trapped traders (shorts) at this point. I would actually consider this to be a 2 bar reversal.

While B is not high volume, it is increasing volume on an interval with a decreasing range from the previous bar. This is a Squat or EvR. Moreover, this interval closes DOWN and does not confirm the Trap Up Move.

I do not see C as a 2BR, but here's what I do see. The volume on the engulfing interval is above average, but more importantly, it higher than the volume on each of the last 5 dark intervals. In fact, it's the highest volume in the last 9 intervals. So while the color may not tell you the volume is notable, the math does.

Big "ups" to you, if you would have entered after the Hidden Test. I did not. I have found that starting with Climatic volume and ending with Low volume works best for me. Of course there are some exceptions. (take a look below)

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,116
  • May 25, 2020 2:21pm May 25, 2020 2:21pm
Quoting iddqd87
{quote} can I also share my thought on the chart? from only the data available to the left, my view wouldve been bearish and not bullish. Weakness everywhere in the background. Saying that, bar 6 is the best entry (long) on the chart if it wasnt market close. -Market made a LL with increasing volume. -Bar A, a buying climax, all this volume, failed to break resistance nor hold the level it attempted to break, achieved nothing. -As price reacts to B, EoM down w sustained volume, active selling, breaks 2 levels of structure. This occurs right after...
Hi, I would not say that Bar A is buying climax as I said earlier that market is in accumulation phase (even in MTF). Also, once you say there is BC - then BUEC set up will not form.
It will be interesting to see if market comes to test Bar 3 again as it was a high volume down bar.
  • #33,117
  • May 25, 2020 3:57pm May 25, 2020 3:57pm
Quoting PALearn
{quote} Hi, I would not say that Bar A is buying climax as I said earlier that market is in accumulation phase (even in MTF). Also, once you say there is BC - then BUEC set up will not form. It will be interesting to see if market comes to test Bar 3 again as it was a high volume down bar.
This is not BC within traditional Wyckoff, where trend has to be long in the tooth with increasing angle of ascent / parabolic behavior, but rather a climatic action for this 5m TF.
The action of Bar 6 disconfirmed the potential BC via point X and Y. As in if one was trading the chart in real time that bar was a climatic action. It was only after Bar 6 has printed, did we know it was not, but more of a vertical absorption. Because like you said if it were a BC the market shouldnt have printed bar 6. i.e. what was portrayed as weakness earlier was actually strength. After all we are trading it in real time.
Feibel & GD have talked a lot about disconfirming buying / selling climax / climatic action in their material.

Or, my analysis was wrong and its ok.

Also, surely one can find a 5m BC in a larger accumulation or a 5m SC in a larger distribution. It simply means the market is not ready to go up yet and needs more time to accumulate at the low.
  • #33,118
  • May 26, 2020 4:07pm May 26, 2020 4:07pm
When elephants walk across your lawn, they leave footprints.

When the Smart Money enters the market aggressively, they leave footprints in the form of Ultra High to Climatic Volume.

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Accordingly, most traders who want to follow the Smart Money should begin by locating their presence by observing volume (they are active on every bar, but there's active and then there's ACTIVE).
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #33,119
  • May 26, 2020 9:15pm May 26, 2020 9:15pm
Quoting HiddenGap
When elephants walk across your lawn, they leave footprints. When the Smart Money enters the market aggressively, they leave footprints in the form of Ultra High to Climatic Volume. {image} {image} {image} Accordingly, most traders who want to follow the Smart Money should begin by locating their presence by observing volume (they are active on every bar, but there's active and then there's ACTIVE).
If you don't mind me asking.

Your NS/Test bars, do they need to be in a certain location relative to the climatic action/delta zone? Or are you satisfied if the bar meets your volume/spread requirements?
  • #33,120
  • May 27, 2020 1:46am May 27, 2020 1:46am
Hallo HiddenGap,

Appreciate your help and analysis, very informative. Am currently demoing a strategy i put together for trading Indices and Crude Oil and was looking to find out if you would use the marked Bars (Bars with Arrows) for drawing your Supply/Demand Delta Zones .. I draw the SDD Zones using the UHVol. Bars off the 30 - Mins TF but was wondering if am doing this right .. Demo seems to suggest am doing it right because the success rate is good .. Thanks

Quoting HiddenGap
When elephants walk across your lawn, they leave footprints. When the Smart Money enters the market aggressively, they leave footprints in the form of Ultra High to Climatic Volume. {image} {image} {image} Accordingly, most traders who want to follow the Smart Money should begin by locating their presence by observing volume (they are active on every bar, but there's active and then there's ACTIVE).
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