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Gejordan Weekly Journal

  • #1,021
  • May 14, 2020 6:29pm May 14, 2020 6:29pm
Quoting gejordan
Likely the last of the week. About 40 pips total when I net out the 3 trades. Of course, it was a big one because I got the best entries with bigger size and broke even on the smallest size.. That's now about 240 pips for the week with nice return. Price made a new swing low two days ago on the new high. Price went and tried the high yesterday and was having no part of it (I exited there yesterday because it was enough. You can see some blue lines if you look close, that was the area I looked for price to go, but it doesn't have to get there to...
Thank you G. I was curious to know if a trade from 50 sma was still valid when it came down from the top. I see that you didnt take it and if I understand correctly, thats because of the action at the top and the theory you explained.However when the price broke the swing low on 1.0830, i thought the bias might not be bullish anymore and because of that I didnt take any trades yesterday.

When you say "Today starts and I see we still want to go up" and reading that along with the action at top and the swing low on 12th May, I see why its still valid to go long.

Thanks Again.
  • #1,022
  • May 14, 2020 7:19pm May 14, 2020 7:19pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Thank you G. I was curious to know if a trade from 50 sma was still valid when it came down from the top. I see that you didnt take it and if I understand correctly, thats because of the action at the top and the theory you explained.However when the price broke the swing low on 1.0830, i thought the bias might not be bullish anymore and because of that I didnt take any trades yesterday. When you say "Today starts and I see we still want to go up" and reading that along with the action at top and the swing low on 12th May, I see why its...
The reason I look each evening (EST US) when trading this way is so I can already have decisions made while I sleep. I was asked about less screen time trading so I am trying to honor that here.

When price came back to simple 50, I could have taken it, but why over trade? I ALREADY MADE GREAT PROFIT so now I can sit back and see where price goes and come up with an idea for the next day. That's what we are trying to achieve. I put this in caps to remind everyone, when you have a good day, you are allowed to stop and be happy instead of gearing up because you have a fresh shot of adrenaline from making a profit. It is truly amazing that we have to fight that urge. We traders have an amazing knack for derailing our own success.

It's not a theory, it's just a clue. As you should know, I am a big believer in paying attention to clues that repeat on a chart.

Now, why would 1.0830 be the swing? Work on the details of how I move swings. Go back to 945 and work it out. Good weekend homework. Below 1.0830 is not the end of the up move, but when it got below there you know there is a heck of a trade if you can get it from the bottom and a great chance it might get there. I never want to stop going long with good setups until my swing is broken.

WHICH brings us to... the broken swing. After I closed my trades today, price went below and stayed below for a couple of hours. Up move over for me. Might not really be over, but over for me. That leaves us with where to put the new swing to signal an up move may start again? I won't post a chart, but here will be an example of an aggressive swing and a conservative swing. I'll let you work it out and we can take a look tomorrow or on the weekend. The great thing for me as a trader trading this way... I get to not care about it and be done with the week, because, I had a great week.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,023
  • Edited 11:41am May 17, 2020 10:37am | Edited 11:41am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} The reason I look each evening (EST US) when trading this way is so I can already have decisions made while I sleep. I was asked about less screen time trading so I am trying to honor that here. When price came back to simple 50, I could have taken it, but why over trade? I ALREADY MADE GREAT PROFIT so now I can sit back and see where price goes and come up with an idea for the next day. That's what we are trying to achieve. I put this in caps to remind everyone, when you have a good day, you are allowed to stop and be happy instead of gearing...
Hi G,

The price has already broken the aggressive swing to the upside and stayed above. There was an idea #3 trade around where price retraced to 50 MA with a stop below white arrow. The price has not yet held above the conservative swing.

A break and hold below the 1.0774 swing low will be indicative of further push down.

I hope I have identified the swings correctly.
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  • #1,024
  • Edited 5:09pm May 17, 2020 4:55pm | Edited 5:09pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, The price has already broken the aggressive swing to the upside and stayed above. There was an idea #3 trade around where price retraced to 50 MA with a stop below white arrow. The price has not yet held above the conservative swing. A break and hold below the 1.0774 swing low will be indicative of further push down. I hope I have identified the swings correctly. {image}
Almost.

First... NO BIAS this week. I want to go with the move. But this has issues as of right now so it's a week where I have some choices to make. More on that in a minute.

Now, for your picture Rearden... I would move the aggressive line down a notch to the wick to the right. It was that push down that closed below and stayed below. Your conservative is up at the highest swing. That's the highest point between the last low and the new low.

Now, you don't always have an aggressive and a conservative swing, sometimes there is just one clear swing. An aggressive swing exists because we had one or two failed attempts to break a location sometimes followed by a successful attempt. Having an aggressive swing is useful when we have a bias change from week to week and the move matches the bias. Since we have No bias this week, I'll give that less consideration. Now, if you still want to trade aggressive swings, that's fine, just know that there is a better chance that we might fail. It's aggressive for a reason. Size accordingly.

If I am ever confused by a chart, I just step back and wait for a clear move and go from there.

So this week, I could actually think we are in an up move because of the break of the aggressive swing. I could also say we are in a down move because the conservative swing up at 1.0895 hasn't been broken. What to do? Ultimately, make your own choices. As always, there are many options. Take a idea #2 or #3 long based on the break of the aggressive swing. Do an idea #1 short if your system says go short. Do an idea #1 long if your system says long. Make that decision on the stop you would have to put in place. Stand aside and do nothing until the picture clears. Preserving capital is a strategy. Just be consistent week after week.

It might be annoying that price has us in this position, but it's good. This has been pretty easy trading the last couple of months, we don't want to get used to it, this week is more like the week to week reality of trading.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,025
  • May 18, 2020 9:17am May 18, 2020 9:17am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Almost. First... NO BIAS this week. I want to go with the move. But this has issues as of right now so it's a week where I have some choices to make. More on that in a minute. Now, for your picture Rearden... I would move the aggressive line down a notch to the wick to the right. It was that push down that closed below and stayed below. Your conservative is up at the highest swing. That's the highest point between the last low and the new low. Now, you don't always have an aggressive and a conservative swing, sometimes there is just one...
Thanks G for the feed back related to the chart that I posted. It brings more clarity for my thought process and helps to make a consistent thinking process.

I went through the charts from post 945 during weekend a couple of times along with the charts in the MT4 platform trying to map the locations to higher time frames and the overall location and also based on post 1009. 1. how do you move the swings.2. Different scenarios when aggressive swings worked. 3. My past trades etc. Below are my observations.

1. I observed that the aggressive swings mostly works from good location(like higher time frame swing highs/lows) which are locations of high probability.

2. From what I observed with regards to my analysis, its not based on a consistent process. I have an overall idea of the concepts of trading but when it comes to analysis and taking the trades, its not based on a consistent approach. I quickly change my analysis based on recent trades. Looking at the trades, there are a number of other mistakes that I am doing. Those are typical trader mistakes and different versions of it. Most of them are related to trying not to miss a trade and eventually missing it or losing by wrong chart reads.

3. I also observed scenarios where I am only noticing actions that support my bias until its too late.

Thank you.
  • #1,026
  • May 18, 2020 10:27am May 18, 2020 10:27am
Good Start to the week. I closed these at an average of 55 each, so 110 for the start of the week. Idea #2 and Idea #3 in action.

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They both went to my ultimate target as I typed this post, so I left 60 pips on the table!!!! So, I have a choice, get mad and stupid or come back at the end of day and see what things look like. Don't get mad and stupid. If you made money.. YOU MADE MONEY. That's good. Period.

I've put on a current obnoxious white line to show where the change in direction would have to occur at this moment on this no bias week.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,027
  • May 18, 2020 10:53am May 18, 2020 10:53am
[quote=Rearden;12947436]
1. I observed that the aggressive swings mostly works from good location(like higher time frame swing highs/lows) which are locations of high probability. - Correct, they will be as good as you are at correctly identifying the swings and not letting your Evil Trading Brain convince you of things that just aren't there.

2. From what I observed with regards to my analysis, its not based on a consistent process. I have an overall idea of the concepts of trading but when it comes to analysis and taking the trades, its not based on a consistent approach. I quickly change my analysis based on recent trades. Looking at the trades, there are a number of other mistakes that I am doing. Those are typical trader mistakes and different versions of it. Most of them are related to trying not to miss a trade and eventually missing it or losing by wrong chart reads. - Correct, the first step is saying it out loud and then you can start addressing it. And don't beat yourself up over it. FF is filled almost exclusively with this type of trader. Be the exception.

3. I also observed scenarios where I am only noticing actions that support my bias until its too late. Correct - see the chart, take the loss, improve.

Thank you. - Welcome

Look, anyone that happened by here could have been doing exactly what I've been doing and be up massively over these last couple of months. You did better than most, you jumped in. But you still got in your own way. Others, were too lazy to try. Maybe a couple said, I don't know this guy, let me see if this works. But they should be on board and posting by now. And maybe one or two that said don't know him moving on.

I told a couple of people ofline who approached me back in Post 945 days, to view the thread, see what I tell them to do, and see if they can do it. You tied the best of them. There is more to trading than entering, even when I tell you on Sunday what I will be doing and how I will be doing it, exactly. A lot gets in the way. I used to have that thread with the steps, most of the reasons were in full view there.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,028
  • May 19, 2020 7:25am May 19, 2020 7:25am
Price has moved up again, also moving up our swing. So, nice situation to consider here. It is now doubtful for an idea #2 or #3 long because those entries now sit below the swing and if price hits there and stays, we would then be in a down move. Could do idea #1 longs if your system fires long, but only while price remains above the new swing.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,029
  • May 20, 2020 6:41am May 20, 2020 6:41am
Retrace on this one. Woke up to 33 pips. It may continue up, but I just wanted to capture the range.

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Be bullish on you.
  • #1,030
  • May 21, 2020 6:27am May 21, 2020 6:27am
Hi G

I attempted one trade today. Initially my Buy limit was at 1.0950 and then later i moved it up to 55. I missed it by one or two pip
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  • #1,031
  • May 21, 2020 6:37am May 21, 2020 6:37am
Quoting Rearden
Hi G I attempted one trade today. Initially my Buy limit was at 1.0950 and then later i moved it up to 55. I missed it by one or two pip {image}
Same here, mine was even a few pips lower. Oh, well. Sit back and see what happens. Push or change direction.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,032
  • Edited 7:05am May 22, 2020 6:07am | Edited 7:05am
My White line was at 1.0937 and placed a PO to SELL after it broke to the downside and held. Its Friday and so I will remove my PO today and reassess next week. I didn't consider the orange line as aggressive low because the price didn't break and held above the previous high( upper white line).

G Quick question please.
I placed a Pending order for Buy when the price quickly came down yesterday for an Idea#2 or Idea #3 trade. But I cancelled the PO due to the HTF location and also the buyers not showing any interest to take the price up(LH) today morning. May I know if you consider that as a valid area for an Idea #2 or Idea #3 trade?
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  • #1,033
  • May 22, 2020 7:38am May 22, 2020 7:38am
Quoting Rearden
My White line was at 1.0937 and placed a PO to SELL after it broke to the downside and held. I think I have to probably wait for next week for the market to take me in. So I will remove my PO today and reassess next week. I didn't consider the orange line as aggressive low because the price didn't break and held above the previous high(white line). G Quick question please. I placed a Pending order for Buy when the price quickly came down yesterday for an Idea#2 or Idea #3 trade. But I cancelled the PO due to the location and also the buyers not...
Trades had already happened, both retrace and simple50, when you miss them, it doesn't mean they didn't happen... it means you missed them, come back tomorrow.

At that point, I am not going to jump in on an idea #2 or idea #3. So that leaves idea #1, idea #1 is really for people who trade with signals/arrows/etc. I threw it out there on Post 945, idea #1, so if someone stopped by they could just look at my bias and maybe it would help their system perform better.

So, idea #1, when that big drop happened, and landed right on your white line, you could go long, but it would need to be at that moment. At that moment you have the lowest risk possible from your white line. Now, we'd want to use some common sense because we just failed at the top again... which also happened to be 1.10 level. Price moved 30 pips back up off that drop. I'd hope you'd have taken profit or gone to break even if you took a trade on a drop to your line with two failures at a meaningful level above. Not a time to be greedy.

Now, at the point you put in orders long, here is the scenario. You are coming into Friday with a move that happened, another move that happened and failure above. Just the sound of that isn't promising, is it? The great thing about making your money early in the week, is that there is no pressure to miss on late Thursday or Friday. For me, I get to just let it play out and come back next week. I took three very basic trades and made 140 pips or something for the week.

Keep challenging yourself, the issues you have identified with your trading brain, and stop trying to make things happen late in the week. Stop trying to be too precise early in the week and stop giving human characteristics to things you don't know. You are on the right track and doing the work. Keep at it and think simple.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,034
  • May 22, 2020 8:18am May 22, 2020 8:18am

Price has turned down as Rearden commented. My trading is done for the week. Be back next week. 140 pips for the week. Around 100 easy ones left on the table. Plenty of opportunity was available. Holiday on Monday. I'll have a bias Sunday and then have to wait and see what I'll want to do around the bank holiday.


Here is your weekend mental homework.


We are dumb money, we don't know why or who is doing what, ever! Don't let your mind be fooled by people who claim to have worked somewhere or try to speak as if they have some professional experience or anything else. They do this to compensate for their own defects and their own uncertainty and to get self worth through a following. On this site, it is nothing more than their ETB (evil trading brain) trying to manage the stress of trading.


WE ARE ALL DUMB MONEY. The sooner you accept that, the easier trading will become. I take pride in being dumb money. I let smart people, governments, and those in the know with large resources do the things that cause price to move which in turn creates a chart. I just watch the chart and look for places for my dumb ass to take low risk trades and pull off a living. Go check out other threads and use that mindset. Ask yourself if the thread starter realizes if they are dumb money or not. Are they trying to explain why the market is moving, market makers, complex math and on and on. Do they keep changing their rules or adding indicators or trendlines. These are all signs that they don't realize they are dumb money.

Are the people following, just doing so blindly, are they trying to say what they do works better, are they failing at doing what the starter said to do because their own ETB gets in the way.


The more you study and learn to see the ETB in others, the more aware you'll become of it in yourself.

Be bullish on you.
  • #1,035
  • Edited 11:47am May 22, 2020 11:26am | Edited 11:47am
What smart money expects dumb money to do.
I have been teaching my oldest to trade. She is 12. She is a year in to doing this and should know better. ETB at work.
She does idea #2 and idea #3 trading.
She gave human characteristics to a candle and abandoned what the chart had been telling us. I had to step in to just get her to close it.
Look familiar to any of your trading? Looks a heckuva lot like my early days trading.
Attached Image


On a positive note. This is her account growth, so she does more right than wrong. There is hope for you, too.
She took her $400 and went to $780. This year the $780 is to $1120. Beats a savings account.
Note the roller coaster in the first half. This is her ETB at work. AND also a tougher market. This current market is easy trading and is reflected in the second part of the curve - straight up.

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Be bullish on you.
  • #1,036
  • May 22, 2020 8:36pm May 22, 2020 8:36pm
Quoting gejordan
What smart money expects dumb money to do. I have been teaching my oldest to trade. She is 12. She is a year in to doing this and should know better. ETB at work. She does idea #2 and idea #3 trading. She gave human characteristics to a candle and abandoned what the chart had been telling us. I had to step in to just get her to close it. Look familiar to any of your trading? Looks a heckuva lot like my early days trading. {image} On a positive note. This is her account growth, so she does more right than wrong. There is hope for you, too. She took...
This is Amazing. Thank you for sharing.

"when you miss them, it doesn't mean they didn't happen... it means you missed them, come back tomorrow."

Yes. This makes a lot of sense. I believe I will get better at this as I start reading the charts better and understand the context. As you said in an earlier post.. WHY entering a trade is more important than the HOW.

If the answer to WHY is no longer a convincing case, then the whole HOW part doesn't come in to picture. Improving my chart reads will help in understanding the WHY part better or if WHY has already happend and its time to wait.


"and stop giving human characteristics to things you don't know. "

I was going to ask you if you could explain on this a bit more because this is precisely the comment (Stop giving human characteristics to chart movement and interpret in your own version #post 787) you gave me 2 or 3 years back and then you posted post 1034 and 1035 which explains it well. Thank you.
  • #1,037
  • May 24, 2020 5:03pm May 24, 2020 5:03pm
No Bias this week. Follow the move. Currently in a down move. Holiday tomorrow in US. Have some options.

If trading in front of Holiday, go a bit smaller than usual.
Could wait until end of day Monday or Tuesday and see where we are.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,038
  • May 26, 2020 6:41am May 26, 2020 6:41am
I took a 15 Pip loss today.

Price got came down and held below my aggressive and conservative white lines. I went short when price retraced back (idea#2).

Looking at it again, i think this is similar to the price action on May 7th to 12th and price broke the high at blue line and I should have went long(but this was in hindsight).

I think mis read the charts.
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  • #1,039
  • May 26, 2020 8:52am May 26, 2020 8:52am
Yes, your white line and yellow line don't really represent anything on the then current move down. Your blue line is absolutely correct. You could've made it more aggressive by moving it down lower on the high of the last down push that went below and stayed below. That is the type of place and thing I would do on an up bias week.

The blue line was broken and stayed above a few bars before you entered.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,040
  • Edited 4:55pm May 26, 2020 4:37pm | Edited 4:55pm
Ok, so we have another situation. We are in a No Bias week, so we want to follow the move. So, where do we say the swing is that will serve as our guide that the up move is over?

1.0889 is the easy answer (white line at bottom of picture). Price broke above the last swing down and stayed above where my pink arrow points. The low of the valley between the "break above and stay above" and the last high is the obvious spot.

But what about the move up. We had a number of one bar pullbacks on that move. So should we count the bottom of each of those as a new swing? Ultimately, my answer is that it's up to you. How aggressive do you want to be and are you willing to take a loss giving something a try?

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Let's look at that move up.
1 - one bar pullback, a new possible low

2, 3, 4 - price pushes above and stays above the high of candle prior to 1, so you could make the low of 2 the new swing

5 - one bar pullback, bar 4 is the high

6 - price pushes higher, but...
7 - doesn't stay above.
8 and 9 - push higher than 4, and stay above. So, low of 5 is the low and high of 9 the high

10 - one bar pullback
11-14 price never gets above and stays above high of 9, so low of 5 remains the low.

14,15 two bar pullback.

So, all of this analysis gives us the low of bar 5 as the current swing low if we evaluate like this. BUT, why are we doing it like this? Are we looking at 1.0889 and thinking... ahh man, price will never get back there. Let me find a higher swing so I might have a better chance of taking a trade?

It's nearly 100 pips to get down there, let me find a way to trade. I need to trade, I need to make money, I'm out of work, I need cash. I don't wanna go back to work, I want to do this, I want to trade. I lost a ton last month cause I couldn't admit I was wrong, I gotta get it back, I need a trade.


Well, that's not what we want happening in our brain.

I prefer at least two candles to give me something I consider a pullback, more candles, better. A nice U shape in a longer pullback is fantastic.

So, right now is a time and type of place where you have to get control of yourself. There is nothing wrong with looking at 5 and saying to yourself that is a reasonable area to try and enter nearby. Might not work out, that will be ok, that's the risk. I won't go crazy if I lose their because I understand the risk.

Or, you say to yourself, probably not going to be a trade for me because I want to use 1.0889 - and I'm ok with that.

Or, think about this, what if spot 5 is the swing and you are waiting for 1.0889 and it comes slamming down there and you go long and it's a miserable failure. You ok with that?

My point is... you can prepare your mind right now for ALL of the outcomes and keep your trading mental health.

What if price goes up here and makes new highs and stays higher... well, that is another type of miss. BUT, it also means our swing will get moved up.

Just know why you are trading and that there are all kinds of outcomes and all of those outcomes are ok.

I added a pink line where the pivot is. I put in a box to show an area where price could enter and I could try long with a more reasonable risk. But I would do this knowing that I can be totally wrong and get stopped, price could continue up and create new circumstances and I will have to reset. I know if I close below and stay below 5, wrong trade for now. I might get stopped and the lower swing is right and then it takes off without me. If I get entry and it moves up... I can remember to not be greedy as this was aggressive and not what I would typically do.

Again, the point... I know what's going on, not only on the chart, but inside me before I trade.

I think I am sitting at 550+ pips or something for the month. Doing easy things. Do the easy things so the hard things don't mean so much. But if you do the easy things, don't be the person who does stupid things and ends the month at 50 pips after being at 550. Trading forex is an exercise in understanding your flaws and the tricks you play on yourself as you deal with inner demons.

It's so much easier for me to not trade today than it is for someone struggling. I appreciate I have done well more than I sit here chomping to do more. Know yourself first. Control yourself.
Be bullish on you.
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