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The Swamp

  • #64,641
  • May 21, 2020 5:13am May 21, 2020 5:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} looking again the original entry 0948/58... the 4h candle stop is below 0952... Since pa hasn't made an aggressive move higher. 0949 may be wanted,, some close support 0948.. I hate for it to stop someone out, then rise 2 pips later. .. possible entry 0949.. the last 4h candle bullish.. lc was higher.. usually indicating a test near high, yesterday came within 7 pips. atm, the last 4h and day indicated rise. I may be wrong if 0949 was needed.
i think we are making to much of it annoying short term range. 950/960 S to 970/980 - levels still on but if we go like this. will just have fake breaks
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #64,642
  • May 21, 2020 5:13am May 21, 2020 5:13am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i got this forth june-jully (15 days if i'm correct) OI interesting for 1.1 and 1.11 calls strike {image}
where do we get this options data/chain for fx, indexes?
  • #64,643
  • May 21, 2020 5:15am May 21, 2020 5:15am
1 minute chart. Right on the boundary. Could go either way
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  • #64,644
  • May 21, 2020 5:17am May 21, 2020 5:17am
If this weeks candle closes without a bottom wick on the EURUSD, i'll be shocked. hasn't. ever. happened.
"it's ok to lose, just don't fail"
  • #64,645
  • May 21, 2020 5:18am May 21, 2020 5:18am
Swiss H1 just reversed uptrend.. Eur may follow soon.
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  • #64,646
  • May 21, 2020 5:18am May 21, 2020 5:18am
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} You really know your stuff
you also have the lowest read on oil rigs. last 30 years.

could have some short term crazy moves. also fear of june expiration is behind.
but we did have a big rally
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #64,647
  • May 21, 2020 5:19am May 21, 2020 5:19am
Quoting falgun196
{quote} where do we get this options data/chain for fx, indexes?
i was posting the option chain for jully contract.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #64,648
  • May 21, 2020 5:24am May 21, 2020 5:24am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 1h close decent i want like another 4h close above this level or at least 1h close above 1.225 ? 1.23 .... still has room to drop maybe just consolidating. but i just want to get the jackpot. so i may lose some money before also they are daily talking about negative rates - talking down GU and yesterday had the 1st auction on negative yield.
GU

we do have some R's above 1.24
but so far decent PA with new hod
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #64,649
  • May 21, 2020 5:25am May 21, 2020 5:25am
I used to trade oil - and used various models looking at the main drivers that I could see
On Bloomberg I think they have an app where you can see the number of oil containers at sea.
Atm- I am sticking with Cable
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #64,650
  • May 21, 2020 5:31am May 21, 2020 5:31am
Quoting matthewpeter
If this weeks candle closes without a bottom wick on the EURUSD, i'll be shocked. hasn't. ever. happened.
i see 5 that look simuliar,
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #64,651
  • May 21, 2020 5:32am May 21, 2020 5:32am
nap time.. hopfully it will rise b4 lc..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #64,652
  • May 21, 2020 5:34am May 21, 2020 5:34am
Quoting Boulder
Swiss H1 just reversed uptrend.. Eur may follow soon. {image}
hourly ranging not above 0968, means bears just collecting more friends to sell for the wanted retrace which refuse to appear.
im sure in the down move before up move like gator's bunny in his mission before it crash down to sleep.
  • #64,653
  • May 21, 2020 5:35am May 21, 2020 5:35am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} hourly ranging not above 0982, means bears just collecting more friends to sell for the wanted retrace which refuse to appear. im sure in the down move before up move like gator's bunny in his mission before it crash down to sleep.
lol...he is going to nap ,,,

I am going to wait to do any trade...not want to get caught by either direction
  • #64,654
  • May 21, 2020 5:39am May 21, 2020 5:39am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} lol...he is going to nap ,,, I am going to wait to do any trade...not want to get caught by either direction
alerts gonna ruin his nap
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #64,655
  • May 21, 2020 5:41am May 21, 2020 5:41am
This is the best way to trade GU. Boulder style.
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  • #64,656
  • May 21, 2020 5:42am May 21, 2020 5:42am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} you also have the lowest read on oil rigs. last 30 years. could have some short term crazy moves. also fear of june expiration is behind. but we did have a big rally {image}
demand isn't what it was before. Everyone thinks prices will remain. Unemployment rates rise. Companies get labor cheaper. Cheaper labor spend less $. The byproduct is less buying of all products. Prices will be forced to re-set. Oil may be low a long time. Those offline wells may not be needed for a while. as soon as price rises, u.s. will produce.. that won't help price. the middle class lost savings and stock retirement. They have to work more years. In a saturated job market... There is no sunshine for a long time. The sky did fall. If a magic pill was taken today to fix corona. That middle class damage is already done. It gets worse with time.

Revolution in Iran and Russia (other oil dictators) chances are up a few notches. Cheap oil hurts Saudis social system as well as others in ME.


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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #64,657
  • May 21, 2020 5:52am May 21, 2020 5:52am
Quoting Maroc-Ismail
* I am putting my money where my mouth is. Long @1,0959.
+ 30
  • #64,658
  • May 21, 2020 5:57am May 21, 2020 5:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} demand isn't what it was before. Everyone thinks prices will remain. Unemployment rates rise. Companies get labor cheaper. Cheaper labor spend less $. The byproduct is less buying of all products. Prices will be forced to re-set. Oil may be low a long time. Those offline wells may not be needed for a while. as soon as price rises, u.s. will produce.. that won't help price. the middle class lost savings and stock retirement. They have to work more years. In a saturated job market... There is no sunshine for a long time. The sky did fall....
Gator, you are right again on that LC closed higher...
next to print 0996 /8... not sure I want to short it,,,only 44 adr if it reaches there
  • #64,659
  • May 21, 2020 5:58am May 21, 2020 5:58am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} demand isn't what it was before. Everyone thinks prices will remain. Unemployment rates rise. Companies get labor cheaper. Cheaper labor spend less $. The byproduct is less buying of all products. Prices will be forced to re-set. Oil may be low a long time. Those offline wells may not be needed for a while. as soon as price rises, u.s. will produce.. that won't help price. the middle class lost savings and stock retirement. They have to work more years. In a saturated job market... There is no sunshine for a long time. The sky did fall....

i would say it really depends on corona and economy opening.
and all this delay on production cut and shutting down oil rigs could have a short term move opposed to the negative one on may contract

i would not be surprised to see $40 on august contract. we already made much of the move.
airlines still down on traffic. they didn't even started. and on September and October we are already pretty stable
jully/august contract could see some distortion. until supply starts to pick up so i agree on the long term.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #64,660
  • May 21, 2020 5:59am May 21, 2020 5:59am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} demand isn't what it was before. Everyone thinks prices will remain. Unemployment rates rise. Companies get labor cheaper. Cheaper labor spend less $. The byproduct is less buying of all products. Prices will be forced to re-set. Oil may be low a long time. Those offline wells may not be needed for a while. as soon as price rises, u.s. will produce.. that won't help price. the middle class lost savings and stock retirement. They have to work more years. In a saturated job market... There is no sunshine for a long time. The sky did fall....
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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