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  • #8,241
  • May 20, 2020 10:01am May 20, 2020 10:01am
Quoting tonny47
{quote} lol, honestly dont get how oil reacts to news. i suppose the run up prior to announcement was pricing in the better inventory number
it’s all manipulated. They use news as a cover to move it however they want
  • #8,242
  • May 20, 2020 10:05am May 20, 2020 10:05am
Quoting Cools81
{quote} Spike Up. Instos have bought. They aint gonna run there own stops so to speak. Not before taking profit at 36.
looks like they want to clear the longs. I will be waiting to buy the dip
  • #8,243
  • May 20, 2020 10:53am May 20, 2020 10:53am
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} it’s all manipulated. They use news as a cover to move it however they want
Heh, interesting view... It is a question of egg and a chicken maybe... Like in Hedge Funds for example, they (regulators) are constantly trying to find out what came first... the "inside" info or the "research" Because if someone is "too lucky" in trading, he is considered statistical anomaly, outlier etc... So they are trying to find out if there was research behind it... But they are also trying to find out if the research happened before or after... But also, in trading, it is all about disclosure... If you disclose it before, it's all good... I find below clip very informative... It is general analogy for all trading... I believe... So news are important

Inserted Video
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #8,244
  • May 20, 2020 1:53pm May 20, 2020 1:53pm
Quoting konradmkkd
{quote} Good news with disappointing movement, can someone explain what happened? Why market reacted bearish (dropped about 50 pips) after -5M in Oil Inventories?
It could've been that gasoline and distillate inventories both rose. The disappointment in gasoline demand likely triggered the move lower but when sentiment prevailed, oil prices started appreciating. The report in general was definitely supportive of crude.

That's what makes this series of releases difficult to trade. There's three numbers and crude inventories doesn't always offset the the other inventory data.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #8,245
  • May 20, 2020 1:56pm May 20, 2020 1:56pm
US stocks are showing signs of a late day rally. If so, I'd expect the risk-on trading environment to push WTI back above earlier session highs.

Heavy volume came in around 30 mins ago on CME CL. Seeing some upside price pressures at the moment.
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EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #8,246
  • May 20, 2020 1:57pm May 20, 2020 1:57pm
distasteful Wednesday.
I mentioned yesterday, I stop trading usually with EU close.
Jim traded to the pit close hour.
I would be better off if i continued, but my attention spin isn't a long runner.

Me minus 1k
JimB2468 +500
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  • #8,247
  • May 20, 2020 2:46pm May 20, 2020 2:46pm
Crude futures are right there at today's session highs. It's too late in the date to expect much, but it's looking strong.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #8,248
  • May 20, 2020 4:13pm May 20, 2020 4:13pm
It was a good trading day with WTI going up by $1.45 or 6%
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  • #8,249
  • May 20, 2020 4:14pm May 20, 2020 4:14pm
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} It could've been that gasoline and distillate inventories both rose. The disappointment in gasoline demand likely triggered the move lower but when sentiment prevailed, oil prices started appreciating. The report in general was definitely supportive of crude. That's what makes this series of releases difficult to trade. There's three numbers and crude inventories doesn't always offset the the other inventory data.
basically that's correct. Crude stocks in Cushing are lower but gasoline stocks are higher which could mean that demand has not picked up as some might thought. So basically good and bad news or uncertainty.

from my broker:

Today's DOE report follows a similar trend as the API report. A clear drop
oil stocks. It is, however, worth paying attention to the details of the report and digging into
data even more because they show very interesting things. First of all - production
may be much lower, and secondly (unfortunately negatively for bulls), demand may be
lower than assumed.
Inventories fell by almost 5 million brk with an expectation of growth of 1.15 million brk and
with a previous decline of 0.7 million brk. Stocks in Cushing fell by almost 5.6
million brk per day. As you can see, there are no worries about falling prices below 0. On the other hand
despite expectations, gasoline inventories clearly increased at 2.83 million brk. Harder
distillate stock increases. With all this, gasoline production has dropped.
In the DOE report itself, the so-called "adjustment factor". Second week
in a row it shows about -1 min brk per day. This means that the oil supply could be smaller
it is 0. Interestingly, the markets speculate that Trump had announced that the century
next week the United States will announce huge production cuts.
  • #8,250
  • May 21, 2020 12:26am May 21, 2020 12:26am
#BRENT / Weekly, H4 & H1
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  • #8,251
  • May 21, 2020 3:01am May 21, 2020 3:01am
Alot of ideas there's on a significant retrace down
  • #8,252
  • May 21, 2020 5:47am May 21, 2020 5:47am
It is amazing how WTI keeps rising, maybe that would be the winning/stable market to shave profits from (its rise)... I will most probably put some re-deposit next week... Betting on (steady) rise. UP
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #8,253
  • May 21, 2020 7:57am May 21, 2020 7:57am
This is my point of view using a magical line. Timeframe H4, still can go up until R2 level 35.05 and the others side is pivotal line 32.92. Good lucks

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  • #8,254
  • May 21, 2020 7:57am May 21, 2020 7:57am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} my next play is targeting 32 price on July. so i am staying calm and collecting some calls targeting that price.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #8,255
  • May 21, 2020 8:23am May 21, 2020 8:23am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote}
Looks like the word retrace doesn't exist anymore in the oil market
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #8,256
  • May 21, 2020 8:27am May 21, 2020 8:27am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Looks like the word retrace doesn't exist anymore in the oil market
imho oil has been very much into supply and demand.

what people tend to forget is

markets is a forward looking mechanism

so now as we keep opening economy will probably form a range
i would think you can see a spike up to 40 but will be probably meet will sellers.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #8,257
  • May 21, 2020 8:30am May 21, 2020 8:30am
WTI continues it’s gradual rise. The trend is up. As I’ve been saying keep it simple and buy. Don’t get stuck in a short because we are coming from historic lows that we may never revisit again in our lifetime
  • #8,258
  • May 21, 2020 8:54am May 21, 2020 8:54am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} imho oil has been very much into supply and demand. what people tend to forget is markets is a forward looking mechanism so now as we keep opening economy will probably form a range i would think you can see a spike up to 40 but will be probably meet will sellers.
Commodity market is totally supply/demand, true

I agree with 40 dollars, even though it can head way higher, depending how's the world economies are doing

Technically, if it goes below 33,20...its can head to 29,xx

Else, 41/42 dollars could be next
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #8,259
  • May 21, 2020 9:04am May 21, 2020 9:04am
Quoting Ayax.TSS
#BRENT / Weekly, H4 & H1 {image}{image}{image}{image}
brent in 0 dollars, hahahaha, you are a good comedian you should go to the theater
  • #8,260
  • May 21, 2020 10:25am May 21, 2020 10:25am
Quoting Kwame Freder
WTI continues it’s gradual rise. The trend is up. As I’ve been saying keep it simple and buy. Don’t get stuck in a short because we are coming from historic lows that we may never revisit again in our lifetime

100% correct. Seems lots of traders take short term approach to this oil market. TO each his own, but I believe it would be wise to Buy any dips( daily chart) once price is below $50/ barrel. You can bet big. No need to leverage. Rinse and repeat.

You can also always buy a little right now in case a reaction doesn't happen any time soon. Just be mindful of the cost of swaps if you eventually bought at the top. Anyways, the swaps can be mitigated buy scaling in as price comes down. profits from ensuing rallies will make up for costs.

Technicals are at Historic lows.

The fundamentals are on the buy side as countries unwind from lockdown, producing countries agree to oil production cuts and the biggest and most meaningful fundamental of all is that most oil producing countries can't sustain a price below $50/barrel.

If the producing governments worldwide want to increase the price of oil, they will find a way to do it.

Oil will be going up.

I have longs on brent, took some off. We'll see how the rest goes.
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