WTI Weekly Analysis | Forex Factory

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WTI Weekly Analysis

  • #1
  • First Post: May 17, 2020 4:04am May 17, 2020 4:04am
Hi all, Will like to start a thread to share my analysis on crude oil .
Stay tune
We don't trade against the market ,we trade against discipline.
  • #2
  • May 17, 2020 4:06am May 17, 2020 4:06am
This week we have seen that crude oil has creep up all the way from the previous negative price to the current $29. Will this move sustain? Or there are bound to be a retracement?
Lets take a look at the following chart and see what could possibly be happening for next week.
Looking at H4 Chart on WTI. Prices of crude oil doesn't show any weakness and could potentially going up higher. However, in D1, there post a huge resistance for this make or break.

  1. Price is now at Rec 1 . Which is a potential break or no break zone.
  2. Any price that retrace back below, it will good to short with high profit to loss ratio.
  3. Path 1 and Path 2 could be potential play out in the current situation.
  4. IMO , it could be on track for path 2 once breakdown and target at 18.75 before any meaningful rebounce

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 185 KB
We don't trade against the market ,we trade against discipline.
  • #3
  • May 17, 2020 9:38am May 17, 2020 9:38am
how can i do with my broker Tickmil, the price only 10 usd ??? nothing change for 3 weeks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Tickmill MT4 Client Terminal17may20.png Size: 69 KB
  • #4
  • May 17, 2020 1:05pm May 17, 2020 1:05pm
Hi , Can you please tell me the price area of the resistance on the D1 chart ? I cannot see any key resistance areas. Do you mean the current price? maybe it will bounce down?
  • #5
  • May 18, 2020 8:31pm May 18, 2020 8:31pm
Quoting dartboardio
Hi , Can you please tell me the price area of the resistance on the D1 chart ? I cannot see any key resistance areas. Do you mean the current price? maybe it will bounce down?
The price is formed by Moving average and have breached by yesterday candle at 31.15 but may resist down due to the strong resistance by daily chart and full round number 30.

The setup are still valid, and can short at a higher price instead with target.



Sorry, my broker has recently changed liquidity provider and price might look different from what is you see but consistent pricing with my original chart.

This chart is as of current
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 88 KB
We don't trade against the market ,we trade against discipline.
  • #6
  • May 18, 2020 8:32pm May 18, 2020 8:32pm
Quoting vinhloc
how can i do with my broker Tickmil, the price only 10 usd ??? nothing change for 3 weeks {image}
It looks different from current contract for June. i can't advise on that as i am not familiar with tickmill and which contract they are using for WTI.
We don't trade against the market ,we trade against discipline.
  • #7
  • May 20, 2020 1:22am May 20, 2020 1:22am
Quoting Kabuki
This week we have seen that crude oil has creep up all the way from the previous negative price to the current $29. Will this move sustain? Or there are bound to be a retracement? Lets take a look at the following chart and see what could possibly be happening for next week. Looking at H4 Chart on WTI. Prices of crude oil doesn't show any weakness and could potentially going up higher. However, in D1, there post a huge resistance for this make or break. Price is now at Rec 1 . Which is a potential break or no break zone. Any price that retrace back...
Guess it is still going up but it is "resting" atm Have you adjusted the paths to this or do you still stand behind them?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #8
  • May 20, 2020 7:37am May 20, 2020 7:37am
For early bird, it might be good to short after the oil inventory with tight SL. The analysis doesn't change with the fact that $30 is the key resistance and D1 barely break in terms of trend.
We don't trade against the market ,we trade against discipline.
  • #9
  • Last Post: May 24, 2020 10:22pm May 24, 2020 10:22pm
Quoting Kabuki
For early bird, it might be good to short after the oil inventory with tight SL. The analysis doesn't change with the fact that $30 is the key resistance and D1 barely break in terms of trend.
Well I won't comment on the first part since it is known now (the outcome), but I will on the second... I would not advise tight SLs in WTI, for the considerable future because it is very unpredictable and one get WIPED even if he/she gets the prices right... Just my 2 b.. man
Can you afford to take that chance?
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