3 Steps to Better Trading

So far AUDUSD is respecting the key area of resistance on the 8HR.


Price is still underneath the 200 SMA on the Daily.

USD is beginning to pick up strength against AUD, as shown on the following currency strength meter.

I am still bearish on this pair and waiting for a selling opportunity.

EURUSD is showing weakness at 1.095—a key psychological level. Compare yellow arrow with blue arrow to see a similar situation.

Price is still underneath the 200 SMA on the Daily.

EUR is still showing strength against USD according to the currency strength meter (be careful).

I am still bearish on this pair and cautiously looking for a selling opportunity.

You see that blue line with the arrow next to it? That is the Daily Open. I want to see price close below that.
EURUSD Current Daily Open Price: 1.0913
AUDUSD Current Daily Open Price: 0.6522


Note: I got the Daily Open idea from LauraT, on her excellent thread, Roadmap - A Way to Read Markets. You can find the Daily Open indicator HERE.

ATTENTION: I have updated the Daily Directional Bias rule.
The requirement to share a chart using an SMA to identify the Daily directional bias only applies to initial trading idea posts. If you have already clearly defined the Daily directional bias on a previous post, then you need not include it on posts where you share additional information related to that specific trading idea.

There are always going to be people who don't appreciate the hard work some do to make a difference in their lives. I just hope that what I have shared here has been helpful to some and appreciated. I wish you all success in your trading.

If you haven't figured it out yet, you will eventually learn that market makers will push prices to the limit—either to stop retail traders out or to get them to quit their trades prematurely. Then they will turn the tables and move in the opposite direction, the direction these people were initially trading in.

And by the time these poor souls figure out what is happening, they are still losing because they have been duped into trading the opposite direction of the market makers. It's a vicious cycle, and one of the main reasons why the majority of retail traders fail in the markets!

Market Makers are not in business to lose to retail traders but to take their money. Your money!

This is why it can't be stressed enough to trade in the direction of the Daily trend, to wait for confirmation before entering a trade, and to stick to YOUR plan.

You will hear of traders on here bragging about how they keep making pips scalping the market or by trading in both directions. But how many of these people do you see telling you about their losses? It's rare.

And if I could give it a good guess, I would say most of these boasters probably lose more money than they gain. Don't be fooled by red badges!

Now don't get me wrong, there are scalp traders and swing traders who are very good at what they do, but these are usually more experienced traders who have learned the hard lessons the market teaches. I assure you there are not many of this kind; they are few and far between.

So don't believe everything you hear, and don't be quick to think the success of others has come easy. There is no Holy Grail in trading. Those retail traders who are consistently profitable have worked hard to get to where they are and suffered many losses along the way. And they still lose from time to time. There is no such thing as 'the perfect trader!'

But here is the question you need to ask yourself each time you lose. How did that guy or gal on the other side of the trade get my money? In other words, reflect on what you did in that trade which caused you to lose your money, and think of how you could have done things differently. That's how you improve.

If someone else is trading successfully, then what's keeping you from sharing in that success? When you find the answer to this question, you will be one step closer to success.

But you won't find the answer as long as you think more of yourself as a trader than you should. Stop flexing those noob muscles. Set that ego aside and acknowledge your weaknesses. Educate yourself, and put what you have learned into practice. When you find something that works, stick to it. Look for ways to improve, but not so much that you lose a grip on what is working. As they say, 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it!'

And by the way, nobody says you have to be a scalp trader or a swing trader to be in a winning class of traders. You can still trade just as successfully by only trading in the direction of the Daily trend, waiting for confirmation before entering a trade, and sticking to YOUR plan (assuming your plan is a good one).

Back to EURUSD!

The Euro has been putting on a show of strength against USD lately! Can this go on much longer? It's quite possible! I have learned the hard way not to underestimate the power of Euro bulls.

Having said that, we are at a critical point. Price is very close to touching the 200 SMA on the Daily (yellow line). Moreover it has reached an important area of resistance at 1.10176 - 1.09790.

Weakness is beginning to show in the Euro, but like I said, Euro bulls should not be underestimated. They are full of surprises. But so is USD!

What I want to see at this point is a close on the Daily below 1.09172. This could change depending on what happens from here. But for now, that is the price. If price closes below it, then I will prepare to sell either by placing a market order or by getting in on a pullback or both. It all depends on how things look when or if that time comes.

EURUSD Daily Chart

One more update on EURUSD for now!

I forgot to mention an important point. Bearish Divergence is showing on the 4HR chart.

While this is certainly an early sign of a possible reversal, it's not a guarantee. But the fact that there is bearish divergence at a key area of resistance is a positive for bears. Do keep in mind, however, that it would be more powerful if the divergence were happening on the Daily.

But like I said in my previous post, I want to see price close below 1.09172. In other words, I'm not going to place a sell order just because I see bearish divergence on the 4HR chart. I need more confirmation.

My sell entry plan has not changed. I am still patiently waiting for a close below 1.09172 on EURUSD.

Many traders are getting trapped, because they are not waiting for confirmation!

Due to the dynamic nature of the market, it's critical that you monitor the Daily chart. The nice thing about the Daily chart is you only have to look at it once a day. What happens on the Daily should determine how you approach lower time frames. Don't lose sight of the bigger picture!

Remember what I said abut the market being dynamic? Entry and exit rules are subject to change because of this.

So I went ahead and placed a sell market order at 1.09657, because the candle body on the 4HR chart closed strong bearish below the prior candle and also closed below the daily open at 1.0976. In other words, I got in on a pullback.

The risk threshold for this trade is 1.10077. If a candle body closes above this price, then I will manually close the trade.

My target for this trade is 1.08906. Now it's possible I may take profit before then or let it run longer. It all depends on what happens. I determine these things based on changes in the price action. This stuff is not set in stone for me. I may even add to my position if market conditions warrant it.

EURUSD 4HR
That's my plan! If it works out, then good. If not, then there will be other opportunities. There is no such thing as a perfect trader. Please keep that in mind. I have to say this because there is always someone out there who likes to criticize people for failure. Hopefully, we won't see such behavior on this thread!

[quote=here2there;12945643]I am using two simple moving averages on the Daily, and the 8HR chart. 200 SMA (orange) 100 SMA (blue) Notice how price respects these moving averages.
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I use 200 , 100 SMA + weekly pvt

I also use weekly pivot. It's very helpful!

Hi H2T,

you have a very sound trading system.......if you continue what you are doing for sure you'll have more winning trades than losing......

just ignore the negative comments by people who want to distract you....... for sure they're still in search for a system to hang on.

200 sma is a very strong dynamic SR on any time time.....and depending on a time frame you are using you you need to adjust your SL and TP.

so goodluck my friend.....your on the right track.......

i will regularly visit this thread.....to get some piece of your mind....

thanks for the insight.

I agree with you, discipline should be part of each one of us - I believe that being disciplined, day by day too, ends up being the only way to achieve positive and successful results ...

I appreciate your kind words.

Unfortunately, just ignoring negative comments is difficult for me because of bad experiences I've had with bullies growing up.

I'm not talking about negative comments where people disagree with me. If people disagree, then it's their right to do so. I don't expect everyone to agree with me.

It's the hateful comments that get to me, comments from mean-spirited people whose apparent objective is to tear me down and turn others against me.

I just wanted to be helpful here, but I have not been treated right. And it seems certain people around here are able to be abusive towards others with impunity. Ignoring them won't correct the problem.

Don't get me wrong, there are some good people in this forum, but for the most part, I find this place to be toxic. So I think it is best to move on.

It's sad to see how a few bad apples can ruin things for everyone.

I wish you the best with your trading!

I hope you don't mean to close this thread......cause its too early to stop now.....and so few are coming which is good......and im planning to interact with you on our thoughts..

anyway here my opinion on EURUSD...hope the chart appears..

The bias on daily time frame is down....but its very hard to trade it based on daily so i go to lower time frame down to 1min...to get a good entry with a very minimum risk.....

looking on 4H time frame....if you place a supply and demand level....you notice that price is ranging for 7 weeks now...

when the price first broke down the 200sma then create the bottom it acts as a resistance when price start rising..the first top...did not touch the sma but very close...
when price goes down to the first bottom notice that it shoots nearly 50 pips to take out all the SLs ....then when it goes up again 200 sma resist it still not touching but close...

another stop hunting appears at the top. take note... the bars that breaks the 200.....

when price breaks down again this time the 200 resist 4 times before it gets broken last Monday.

The last price move on Friday notice its very close to the 200 but engulf up...if the price goes up, it might break the upper supply level and visit the 1.10500 level to create a bullish illusion then dump....this maybe very crazy idea but most likely to take out all the strong SL's before dumping it is most profitable for the big banks.

hope i explain my point......

using three time frame for minimum risk......using a higher time frame for bias.....

Although the Daily bias is bull but considering the distance of the 200 ma from the price counter trend is also possible....

On the 4H... price goes up to the 200 which is also close to my perceived supply zone...considered it as strong zone because of the size of the bar that breaks the 200ma. so when the price was hovering in the 200 4H i switch to the 1H i saw the red bar then i switch to 15min. 4 bar that topping up considered as M pattern of reversal, so i took an entry on the rejected bar....

i was hoping to get my target before the end of the day but unfortunately it did not so im planning to change my TP next week to the bottom... the demand zone....if the strong last up move is true then it might revisit the purple line before it continue to move down...

my SL for this trade is 35pips
took the entry between LO and NY then went to sleep.....

I'm getting back in forex after some years. I like this thread thanks for starting this.......simple is the only way to ride!

Hello. Please hang around as we were only just getting started. You method made so much sense and no matter where you go or what you do in this world there will always be negativity. These people have issue's in their lives that they need help with as well, They are Human and have had a bad experience to allow for them to be this way. So lets not give up on them either. We are all here to help each other through the good and the bad. What is good for you is bad for me and vice versa. So WE all need HELP either way!! Hang in there mate...And keep you chin up!!