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$ For The week of 10/30-With Trade Ideas

  • #21
  • Edited 1:41am Oct 31, 2006 1:26am | Edited 1:41am
First off, the USD Positive view is my own opinion. I am not forcing it upon reader to accept it as is.

Secondly, we got ISM and Consumer Confidence all showing better expectations. but of course it is too early to tell.

How about NFP this friday. NO WAY can you get any number LOWER than 50k - read my NFP historic chart and analysis on history if you havent done so.

Anyways... I wont use GBPUSD @ 1.8960s to support my opinion.

Quote
Is it because you want the $ to rally?
I personally have LONG GBPUSD positions and am not wanting USD to rally.
Heck I wanted USD to fall to 1.9100 so I can short it at that higher number.

Quote
so I'm curious if somehow you have a magical 8 ball or what? [img]images/smilies/smile.gif[/img]

Bahh.. Everybody knows I use a coin toss not the magic ball
  • #22
  • Oct 31, 2006 1:48am Oct 31, 2006 1:48am
Good Response BK

I too am thinking +$ as week progresses
  • #23
  • Oct 31, 2006 2:05am Oct 31, 2006 2:05am
I am kind of waiting for the big reversal to join a nice run down on cable. But as housing news was bound to be GBP+ this morning, I was not too hopeful.
Then we had UK house prices come out higher than forecast - not much but still higher - and cable goes down 30 pips! I really do not understand why!

I guess I am just a newbe trying to learn how to read the markets and these kind of contradicting moves are a little frustrating.

In terms of a possible downtrend having started, we had a H4 TL break and also a short signal acc to Bago method, but I am not convinced by the D1 pattern (someone detected a rising star, but for me that candle is not convincing)

Does anyone more experienced have an idea what's going on here?

Thx!
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #24
  • Oct 31, 2006 2:16am Oct 31, 2006 2:16am
Quoting Geldmeister
I am kind of waiting for the big reversal to join a nice run down on cable. But as housing news was bound to be GBP+ this morning, I was not too hopeful.
Then we had UK house prices come out higher than forecast - not much but still higher - and cable goes down 30 pips! I really do not understand why!

I guess I am just a newbe trying to learn how to read the markets and these kind of contradicting moves are a little frustrating.

In terms of a possible downtrend having started, we had a H4 TL break and also a short signal acc to Bago method, but I am not convinced by the D1 pattern (someone detected a rising star, but for me that candle is not convincing)

Does anyone more experienced have an idea what's going on here?

Thx!
Perhaps I can help. The reason why you saw it move down 30 pips isn't because of the reaction to the news... it was the usual morning fakeout.

Every morning, around 7-8AM London time, the market will take off. Like clockwork, it reverses. This is because smart money is sucking in traders so that they can reverse on them, hit their stops, and create liquidity for the real move, which in this case, is bullish.

This happens very reliably. Not every time, but enough that you can develop a system for it...

Remember -- forex trading is all about liquidity. It's all about sucking in the dumb money to make big money for the smart traders... That's how banks and institutions work.

If I'm a bank, I'm gonna push the market down just enough to start getting people to go with me... because I know, psychologically, that even if people hang on, at some point they'll turn around and run in that direction... that's when I reverse it on them and hit them hard, triggering their stops, which then adds more liquidity for my clients who are wanting to put on the actual trade size that moves the market hard and fast...

Hope this helps.
Mr. Trend
  • #25
  • Oct 31, 2006 2:38am Oct 31, 2006 2:38am
Quoting BurgerKing
First off, the USD Positive view is my own opinion. I am not forcing it upon reader to accept it as is.

Secondly, we got ISM and Consumer Confidence all showing better expectations. but of course it is too early to tell.

How about NFP this friday. NO WAY can you get any number LOWER than 50k - read my NFP historic chart and analysis on history if you havent done so.

Anyways... I wont use GBPUSD @ 1.8960s to support my opinion.


I personally have LONG GBPUSD positions and am not wanting USD to rally.
Heck I wanted USD to fall to 1.9100 so I can short it at that higher number.



Bahh.. Everybody knows I use a coin toss not the magic ball
BK, thanks a lot for not getting offensive or anything, and I apologize again if I come off a bit rude or anything. I just find a lot of predicting going on and I try to get people to realize that they can't predict... they spend so much time on these forums trying to be right, and they end up draining their account.

I'm a bit too passionate about my business, I suppose. But regardless, thanks for the insight on your thought process... it's interesting for me to see different views...
Mr. Trend
  • #26
  • Oct 31, 2006 3:09am Oct 31, 2006 3:09am
your reply was very helpful and even better illustrated by the actual moves over past hour!
I guess what you told me was not entirely new to me, but as we all know it's quite a learning curve and in the beginning a new trader's mind sometimes forgets about one aspect whilst focused on others.
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #27
  • Oct 31, 2006 8:44am Oct 31, 2006 8:44am
Interesting moves on majors today during european session.
I was really paying close attention to GBP/USD lately. Do you guys think that the $ bearishness is starting to fade or is it just some profit taking - after the large 200 pips run - which drove this pair down at the start of the session?

I'm personally clean handed now, waiting for BoE gov King's speech less than one hour from now.
I will also watch $ numbers due in few minutes for some insights.
  • #28
  • Oct 31, 2006 8:47am Oct 31, 2006 8:47am
This is so TRUE Trend- I make a living trading "this" for 2 hours each early morning.

Quoting Mr Trend
Perhaps I can help. The reason why you saw it move down 30 pips isn't because of the reaction to the news... it was the usual morning fakeout.

Every morning, around 7-8AM London time, the market will take off. Like clockwork, it reverses. This is because smart money is sucking in traders so that they can reverse on them, hit their stops, and create liquidity for the real move, which in this case, is bullish.

This happens very reliably. Not every time, but enough that you can develop a system for it...

Remember -- forex trading is all about liquidity. It's all about sucking in the dumb money to make big money for the smart traders... That's how banks and institutions work.

If I'm a bank, I'm gonna push the market down just enough to start getting people to go with me... because I know, psychologically, that even if people hang on, at some point they'll turn around and run in that direction... that's when I reverse it on them and hit them hard, triggering their stops, which then adds more liquidity for my clients who are wanting to put on the actual trade size that moves the market hard and fast...

Hope this helps.
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #29
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:11am Oct 31, 2006 9:11am
Finally! some real trading.

Hope everyone hit this deal hard.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #30
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:13am Oct 31, 2006 9:13am
I've been waiting for GBP to react all night. It's time for some chedda'...
Mr. Trend
  • #31
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:31am Oct 31, 2006 9:31am
big explosive move bull flag nice setup it was just building up the whole time... ouch ...
  • #32
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:31am Oct 31, 2006 9:31am
i see 9150 as a target zone here...
  • #33
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:32am Oct 31, 2006 9:32am
Quoting enoc2g
i see 9150 as a target zone here...
Well, my conservative PT was 9090... I'm now moving to my aggressive target of 9195...
Mr. Trend
  • #34
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:33am Oct 31, 2006 9:33am
I think im gonna buy the fib retracements on this until we get some really bullish usd fundamentals.
  • #35
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:35am Oct 31, 2006 9:35am
I wonder how far it will drop can it keep going straight up? lol and where will it meet resistance? this thing can go to 2000 level !!! back in 1992 thats where it was ... then it dropped like a stone when they messed with the interest rates..
  • #36
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:35am Oct 31, 2006 9:35am
Quoting Mr Trend
Well, my conservative PT was 9090... I'm now moving to my aggressive target of 9195...
Another great call Mr. Trend.
U R gettin soooooo paid.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #37
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:35am Oct 31, 2006 9:35am
lol all usd bears head for cover...
  • #38
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:36am Oct 31, 2006 9:36am
i saw 9070 as a realistic target... nice move.. all along we had bullish patterns flags ect forming very interesting.
  • #39
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:38am Oct 31, 2006 9:38am
we just broke thru a major daily resistance TL on the daily chart.. this thing has major momentum now... expanding my targets.
  • #40
  • Oct 31, 2006 9:40am Oct 31, 2006 9:40am
Quoting enoc2g
lol all usd bears head for cover...
man .9099 ghost got in dollor posative on 3 currencies when they slowed down............ not good.....
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
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