Trading with Luke

Here is the bearish set up I mentioned earlier on the USD/CAD daily chart. However, it is in a bad position, with price now in the middle of a range formed in the past few days. I don't like entering longs or shorts in the middle of ranges. Also the price has already moved too far for me to enter now with acceptable risk.

Additionally, the USDCAD is a very volatile pair with a history of serious manipulation which is made easier by the pair's low liquidity in the markets. I don't like trading it and I won't speculate on it today either.

My AUD entry hasnt been triggered. However, AUD is beginning to decline tentatively and on the 1hour chart we have now bear trend signals. We also just had 2 bearish signals on the 4hour charts, which is indication that maybe the bears are beginning to gain the upper hand on higher time frames as well. Depending on how today closes, I may move my sell-stop entry point to below the low of today's candle, up from just below the low of yesterday's candle where it currently sits.

Will probably not post more till Sunday or Monday, so good luck to everyone and good profits!

Hello guys. Here's another trade I took last night, just before I went to bed and as the Asian session opened. I bought USD/JPY a few minutes after the open @ 106.64 anticipating a bullish breakout after May 6th, 7th and 8th gave us 3 bullish signals on the 4-hour chart, of which I posted on the USD/JPY thread last Friday.

After the first hour of Asian trading and as price was going my way, I set stop loss at 17 pips, just below the low of the hourly candle, and went to bed lol.

My target is just above 108s where there is a cluster of highs that I anticipate will be cleared before price moves down again. I do not think this is a big USD/JPY bull


Here's the 4-hour USD/JPY chart with the trade.

As for my AUD/USD set up, after Friday closed bullish, I simply moved my sell stop order to just below the low of Friday's close. If today is bullish as well, which I expect it will be, I will again move my sell stop order to just below today's close.

cheers

Short taken on the FTSE100 @5960

We are at the middle of the rising channel/bearish flag that has formed after the big drop. Sentiment seems to be changing in the markets.

Overall I expect stock markets to correct just shy of 50% from their peaks earlier this year. This would bring the FTSE to around 3900-4000 before this is over. I expected this correct when Dow approached 30k, but had no idea what on Earth would cause it. I thought it might be China political unrest, or some war, or big bank (Deutsche?) failing. I never imagined it would be a virus. But the correction was on the charts.

This is not the year 2020. It's actually 1921

rising channel/potential bearish flag on the FTSE daily , for bigger context

My AUD/USD has now been triggered, since price just dropped below Friday's low. So now I am also short AUD @ 0.6491

Morning everyone.

Closed my FTSE short from 5960 just now, for 53 pips profit. Opened long on FTSE now, as the 4Hour chart has produced a 3rd bullish signal in a row, suggesting the FTSE is wanting to rise more.

short term Chart on FTSE



My USDJPY longs are still active.

AUD/USD short stopped at break-even.

No other trades open atm

Here's the FTSE 4-hour chart with the three bullish bells in a row. The third one just triggered, which prompted my closing the short and reversing long.

These are bullish continuation signals

I should add the Dow has only produced 1 bullish bell on the 4-hourly, and the DAX has just produced a 2nd bullish bell on the 4hourly. So of the three, FTSE, DOW and DAX, the FTSE seems to be ahead on bullishness with its 3rd bullish bells, which is why I took the long on FTSE for now

Morning everyone. I am still long FTSE, USD/JPY.

I just added to my FTSE long, buying at 5905. That's because the 4-hour chart just printed a 4th bullish bell.

Here's the updated FTSE 4hour chart. I bought yesterday when the 3rd bullish bell printed, the market promptly rose by around 70 pips and then turned around and dropped below my entry price as the Dow plunged. But this morning, futures turned around again and the chart printed the 4th bullish bell. So we have 4 bullish continuation signals now over the last 6 days, hinting that the markets want to go higher.

Hello everyone.

Update on my speculative positions:

My FTSE trades (long) have been stopped out. They include the main position that I had entered at 5905, plus some small add-on longs later. The all got stopped when price crashed below 5868, where I had placed sl, just below the lows of the series of 4-hour bullish bell candles, which turned out to be invalidated by the drop.

Lost 37 pips on the main position and including the add-on losses, total is equivalent to 45 pips loss on the main position. The invalidation of a series of bullish 4hour bells is a powerful bearish signal, so one could enter the reverse position, but I dont like trading again the trend, and also I can't be on the computer constantly to monitor the markets these days due to personal life matters.

The price has been dropping for hours and is now trying to poke and stay below the rising channel's lower border. It might wait till NY open to decide what to do, whether to continue or reverse and respect the rising channel.

My bias is still bullish until I saw convincing break of the rising channel

Update on my other position, my long USD/JPY which I didnt post here but had posted in the USD/JPY thread. The price broke above the descending channel as I hoped, rose by about 100 pips and then it reversed and has since bounced off the break-out level. It is now deciding what to do. My trade is still in profit but only barely by now.

View of the Dow Jones, from which FTSE and other western markets are taking direction

Odds are still for a rebound IMO, as price yesterday revisited what had been the month's open and low, but has since stalled and not moved aggressively below it.

Dow still in a range

I entered another speculative long on the FTSE at 5714, with 35 pips stop loss. This is an attempt to speculate on the possibility that the rising channel will hold. Let's see

Update: Lost another 35 pips here as the market continues to move lower. So I suspected its mission was reach the out of hours FTSE lows of May 4th, which had happened during Asian hours. So I waited, moving down to the 1min chart. The low timeframe charts were showing signs of exhaustion.

Just minutes before US open, FTSE made its final push for the May 4rth low. At the same time, Dow had some unfinished business left. By yesterday, it had cleared all clusters of range lows, as I showed 2 posts above. All but one! That was cleared today, just as the Dow opened, it made a final push and cleared those lows as well.

That's when I bought Dow and FTSE again, for the third time.

Markets have turned after those objectives. My targets are still a bit hgher than the range of the past few weeks.

As for USD/JPY, I am still long there, but it hasn't moved up by much.

Overall, not been a positive week so far, but trades still active.

Good morning.

Last week I lost 80 pips in two trades where I was trying to catch what I believed was a bottom forming in the FTSE. In my third attempt I bought Dow and FTSE as they took out prior clusters of lows that had formed over the past few weeks, in a gamble that this was going to be at least an intermediate bottom, and indices will once again swing north towards the top of the range of the past few weeks.

So very similar play on both the Dow and FTSE. Just showing the Dow 4hour chart below. The FTSE trade chart is almost identical. Stop loss moved to a bit above break-even and will let these trades live or die on their merit

I also have the USD/JPY long still active, but it seems to be stalling its rise after what was perhaps another fakeout long. Stop loss moved to break-even on that trade as well. USD/JPY chart below

So I have no risk exposure atm and just looking to let these gambles play out

Bought some AUD/USD with 32 pips stop loss. I think AUD/USD is going to at least revisit 0.6550s area, and potentially go higher. However, it is not certain that the flush out of longs over the past few days concluded with last Friday. But that's my bet

about 6 hrs ago I went long GBP.USD and AUD/USD, posted the GBP/USD gamble on Cable Update thread.

On May 11th I had posted in that thread my suspicions for the market was up to. I attach the original 11May chart and its update as I see it, today

So currently I am:

Long FTSE and Dow from Friday's lows
Long USD/JPY for 8 days now
Long GBP and AUD

Hello.

I have now closed my Dow and FTSE long trades that I entered into last Friday per my earlier posts, on May 14th.

FTSE100 long @ 5635 closed @ 5970 for a profit of 335 pips
Dow Jones long @ 22,868 closed @ 24,422 for a profit of 1554 pips

Stop loss on the USD/JPY has been moved up to 107.20 (finally! It took it ages to budge) locking in 50 pips profit.

Also still long on GBP/USD and AUD/USD