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vsa with Malcolm

  • #33,021
  • Edited 6:02am May 13, 2020 5:49am | Edited 6:02am
A question for those trading intraday. Because of the fact that in my swing trading strategy, the setups don't appear so often and I have a lot of free time between them, I'm looking to build a high probability intraday strategy aiming for 1-2R, in fact it could be less then 1R if it has very high probability. So my questions are: how do you choose your trading levels, which setups do you think have the best probability of success, what time frames do you use for entries? Any tips are welcomed. Don't get me wrong, I'm not asking to share your strategies, like I did a few posts ago ))) I just need pieces of puzzle so I can work with on building the strategy. I think this should be interesting for many people because we are making it public.
  • #33,022
  • Edited 10:03am May 13, 2020 9:24am | Edited 10:03am
Quoting Blasterh22
A question for those trading intraday. Because of the fact that in my swing trading strategy, the setups don't appear so often and I have a lot of free time between them, I'm looking to build a high probability intraday strategy aiming for 1-2R, in fact it could be less then 1R if it has very high probability. So my questions are: how do you choose your trading levels, which setups do you think have the best probability of success, what time frames do you use for entries? Any tips are welcomed. Don't get me wrong, I'm not asking to share your strategies,...
maybe this might help
all trades from today, still running, banked half and stops at BE except on EU, that1 has the highest vol in a while off the highest price(new high ground) at resist, divergent etc, entered on 5m huge upthrust on high vol that was confirmed with a lower close. as for the rest, easy setups, fib retracements, high vol on 1 hr, check 5m to have high vol rejection of the highest price, enter on AR break or the first ND in case of sell. nothing to complicated. fake breaks(double tops with high vol rejection kinda like on EU) high probability trades or first fib retrace after confirmed weakness or strenght. 220 pips so far today, beautiful day hhaahaha.. was eyeing EURGBP to go long but would ve been 2 much exposure. could be done for the week.
cheers
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  • #33,023
  • May 14, 2020 5:38am May 14, 2020 5:38am
Quoting 1odi
{quote} maybe this might help all trades from today, still running, banked half and stops at BE except on EU, that1 has the highest vol in a while off the highest price(new high ground) at resist, divergent etc, entered on 5m huge upthrust on high vol that was confirmed with a lower close. as for the rest, easy setups, fib retracements, high vol on 1 hr, check 5m to have high vol rejection of the highest price, enter on AR break or the first ND in case of sell. nothing to complicated. fake breaks(double tops with high vol rejection kinda like on...
I found this guy Peter Fader, I'm sure many heard him, he's trading on m5 timeframe. I found that in his course he basically covers all this stuff you mentioned, his setups looks very similar with yours.
  • #33,024
  • May 14, 2020 6:13am May 14, 2020 6:13am
Quoting Blasterh22
{quote} I found this guy Peter Fader, I'm sure many heard him, he's trading on m5 timeframe. I found that in his course he basically covers all this stuff you mentioned, his setups looks very similar with yours.
yeah, i looked up his vids a while back when i was still trying to make sence of volume in regards to candles.i didn t bought the course, cos if u look up all his free stuff on utube, it s all u need right there.
  • #33,025
  • May 14, 2020 11:30am May 14, 2020 11:30am
not much action going on today except usdchf, literally just entered few minutes ago, browsing just before to close the mt4, since the volume kinda starts to die off
1hr chart, didn t quite reached the fib but it setup on the 50ema, background strenght(atleast imo), highest vol of today off 50 with bullish reaction to confirm buying, 5m when i looked the AR was already broken,(i wouldn t have entered on AR break on such a large candle) and luckily did the low vol test, textbook lol with the NS and a SOS(hammer). sl 9 pips, gooing for 2r and see from there if any weakness comes in etc.
cheers
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  • #33,026
  • May 15, 2020 7:13am May 15, 2020 7:13am
A simple setup I took today, but closed too soon tho.
Downtrend, retracement to 50% fibo, climatic volume confirmed on m5, ND.
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  • #33,027
  • May 15, 2020 7:20am May 15, 2020 7:20am
same as previous
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  • #33,028
  • May 15, 2020 7:22am May 15, 2020 7:22am
Quoting Blasterh22
A simple setup I took today, but closed too soon tho. Downtrend, retracement to 50% fibo, climatic volume confirmed on m5, ND. {image}
nice, i didn t took that 1cos the 1hr vol wasn t that high, and if it sets up inside the fib, i need to see vol kicking in, if theres low vol it could just continue as low vol might suggest no selling pressure. but that s not always the case, there are variation, and ur 5m setup was really nice, high vol of the highest point, nd and off u go.
i just took a pong yen continuation to that support and scalled out gradually looking at the vol
  • #33,029
  • May 15, 2020 7:35am May 15, 2020 7:35am
Quoting Blasterh22
same as previous {image}
u got this dude. all u need is clear dir with clear background, strenght or weakness, pullback to a fib or 50 as sometimes it will setup on 50 ema, volume kiccking in, confirmation, and 5m setup. be it AR break on low vol or low vol test or high vol quick rejection etc.
and the other setup that i really like is fake break, adds to the probability, be it inside the fib, or of a double top, bottom, or even fake break of previous s days low or high. repetition is key. atleast for me, i had trouble beeing patient and waiting for the setups to be confirmed, wait for candle to close, etc.. once i got that mastered, sky is the limit.. and i say that cos i can even risk a bit more on high probability stuff and in that way patience pays. i did backtested this type of market aproach before going live with it, cos u know, if u don t trust ur aproach ur toast, and i can tell u from my own experience it has high win rate, sometimes very little drawdaown and the upside is nice. Stops aren t huge and u know fast if ur wrong or not.(sample backtest over 500 trades).
  • #33,030
  • May 15, 2020 8:03am May 15, 2020 8:03am
Quoting 1odi
{quote} nice, i didn t took that 1cos the 1hr vol wasn t that high, and if it sets up inside the fib, i need to see vol kicking in, if theres low vol it could just continue as low vol might suggest no selling pressure. but that s not always the case, there are variation, and ur 5m setup was really nice, high vol of the highest point, nd and off u go. i just took a pong yen continuation to that support and scalled out gradually looking at the vol
yes I agree, the volume wasn't very high but when I saw that 5m volume on the highest point I decided to take it, tho I was out early, well it was my first trade on m5 so I wasn't very sure ))
  • #33,031
  • May 15, 2020 8:13am May 15, 2020 8:13am
Quoting 1odi
{quote} u got this dude. all u need is clear dir with clear background, strenght or weakness, pullback to a fib or 50 as sometimes it will setup on 50 ema, volume kiccking in, confirmation, and 5m setup. be it AR break on low vol or low vol test or high vol quick rejection etc. and the other setup that i really like is fake break, adds to the probability, be it inside the fib, or of a double top, bottom, or even fake break of previous s days low or high. repetition is key. atleast for me, i had trouble beeing patient and waiting for the setups to...
Nice, what risk reward are you aiming for, or it all depends on each trade, levels, and so on. Judging from my today's trades, which of course is too soon, I can see a "guaranteed" reward of 1R, this is not much, especially after my swing trades (7R on average), but with a high probability it can work out. By the way, what probability of successful trades you have?
  • #33,032
  • May 15, 2020 10:19am May 15, 2020 10:19am
Quoting Blasterh22
{quote} Nice, what risk reward are you aiming for, or it all depends on each trade, levels, and so on. Judging from my today's trades, which of course is too soon, I can see a "guaranteed" reward of 1R, this is not much, especially after my swing trades (7R on average), but with a high probability it can work out. By the way, what probability of successful trades you have?
first lol, there s no guarantee in trading, swing or intraday wise, but i m sure u meant it in a ironic way. i do not have a RR set, what i mean by that is i need to watch the chart, sometimes it looks great, breaks the AR on low vol and the next candle after that turns out climactic.. there s no knowing what it will happen. that beeing said, i try to make it a risk free trade as soon as possible, meaning set BE once i feel comfortable enough to not smuggle the trade and ussually bank some profit. if the trade goes markup stile, like just floating up or down on low vol, i don t even touch it, i mean i won t take profit untill late evening cos we know asia brings retracements etc, then set stop at BE and let it be. i had trades took on tuesday and closed out on friday, trailing the 14ema on the 1hr.
so i guess, if i manage ti turn a 5m entry into a swing trade, that would be ideal. if not i ll just take what the market gives at that moment in time.with the current uncertainty, i really don t feel comfortable swingging for the fences or holding over weekends.
as an example i just took 2 more trades, looking great, as soon as they started to move few pips into profit they hit climactic volume, so i banked half the profit on each and stop at BE. there s no point in letting a good trade turn into a loss just cos i want 2R risk reward. sometimes u ll catch 5 times or eeven 10 times the risk sometimes just 1 or 2,but around 3times ur risk is an average on ur winning trades, i m saying this with the SL placement in mind that shouldn t be as big as a 1hr or 4hr stop. i personally, can t trade set and forget,like to not look at the chart and just leave it there cos of RR, maybe the chart is saying something else, maybe the odds have changed, why take a full loss when i can trimm down my risk or whatever. anyways, these are the 2 charts i mentioned earlier.
PS> this is only my opinion and what i found easier to manage risk, still follow the bigger picture trend and being able to have a smaller stop with a potentially bigger reward. that doesn t mean it s for every1 as people are different. cheers
PS: forgot to mention, the probability is around 70% for on a month to month basis, sometimes higher sometimes lower, around that. i think could be higher but i need more years to practice more patience, get better at reading the charts etc.(we try to follow peple with deep pockets, so the odds should be high, righ?)
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  • #33,033
  • May 15, 2020 10:31am May 15, 2020 10:31am
This one went fast, was hoping for another leg down to get a better entry, but NS appeared after the break of AR and I took the entry. After that I saw the closing of 1h bar, increase in volume but no wick, strong up close and I decided to hold position
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  • #33,034
  • May 15, 2020 10:39am May 15, 2020 10:39am
nice 1, didn t saw that1)))
i was looking why i didn t catch usdcad, now i know. cos i wasn t looking to buy, was looking to sell cos of the climactic vol at the top yesterday. the 1hr background tends to play out more often then not, so it s best to follow that.
  • #33,035
  • May 15, 2020 10:44am May 15, 2020 10:44am
Quoting 1odi
{quote} first lol, there s no guarantee in trading, swing or intraday wise, but i m sure u meant it in a ironic way. i do not have a RR set, what i mean by that is i need to watch the chart, sometimes it looks great, breaks the AR on low vol and the next candle after that turns out climactic.. there s no knowing what it will happen. that beeing said, i try to make it a risk free trade as soon as possible, meaning set BE once i feel comfortable enough to not smuggle the trade and ussually bank some profit. if the trade goes markup stile, like just...
That's exactly how I manage my swings, I set big targets but as soon as I seen something I don't like I take the profit and say thanks )), as you said it, no point of making a winning trade a loosing one. Also with BE stuff and risk free I absolutely agree, the sooner the trade is risk free the better.
  • #33,036
  • May 15, 2020 10:52am May 15, 2020 10:52am
stress wise, banking some profit and setting BE can help mentally, atleast for me it does.gold was my favorite commodity all time, but since this corona crap i stopped trading it, wide spreads and wicks all over the place, volume as well... not what it used to be..hopefully that would turn to normal soon, cos on gold u have really nice oportunities to get a bang for ur buck.
  • #33,037
  • May 15, 2020 10:56am May 15, 2020 10:56am
Quoting 1odi
nice 1, didn t saw that1))) i was looking why i didn t catch usdcad, now i know. cos i wasn t looking to buy, was looking to sell cos of the climactic vol at the top yesterday. the 1hr background tends to play out more often then not, so it s best to follow that.
this is what I saw
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  • #33,038
  • May 15, 2020 11:02am May 15, 2020 11:02am
Quoting Blasterh22
{quote} this is what I saw {image}
i agree, it does look like going up, just need vol to confirm that, if i get for example highest vol in a while at a swing high, and medium vol on the pullback, i won t buy that curency anymore. talking from 1hr point of view, but that goes also for 4hr, daily and so forth. btw, what data feed u use for volume dude? (broker)
  • #33,039
  • May 15, 2020 11:07am May 15, 2020 11:07am
Quoting 1odi
{quote} i agree, it does look like going up, just need vol to confirm that, if i get for example highest vol in a while at a swing high, and medium vol on the pullback, i won t buy that curency anymore. talking from 1hr point of view, but that goes also for 4hr, daily and so forth. btw, what data feed u use for volume dude? (broker)
good point!
fxpro
I've just compared with yours, looks the same.
  • #33,040
  • May 15, 2020 11:15am May 15, 2020 11:15am
Quoting Blasterh22
{quote} good point! fxpro I've just compared with yours, looks the same.
good, i asked cos i keep pairing brokers volume feed, see which 1 is more accurate etc, so far fxcm is best imo. but u never know when that can change. also trading view very usefull for that as u can find quite a few brokers in there.
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