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The Fibonacci channel projections (FCP)

  • #841
  • May 9, 2020 4:54am May 9, 2020 4:54am
Quoting benjamintoh8
Thanks Inthebox for your response, I have also done up EU as shown... did i draw correctly? I feel that the Channel 1 is in play now and might go to the TP as shown by the arrows before price comes down to put Channel 2 into play. {image}
work needs to be done on channel point 3.

analyze to trade trend or counter trend. probably counter trend gets one third or quarter of trend target.
good old trend is higher high higher low.
if in doubt on your reference chart, go one or two higher up chart.
d1 tells me in range. h4 tells me in range and in triangle. coming to apex for breakout.
price above h4 yellow dotted trend line, i shall buy only.
h1 watch out for downward sloping channel to buy.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #842
  • May 9, 2020 5:33pm May 9, 2020 5:33pm
Hi there,

May I ask which option between A and C is most convenient or even correct?

Following creation rules for FCP, we should find the Highest Low (or bottom preceding the last maximum peak) for point 1, from there point 2 and then 3. And this is draw on figure A.

I've found several examples where different Highest Lows are used and they does not preceed the maximum peak. Figure C


Figure B is just the middle point scenario between A and C, where a trigger candle is not present and we must correct our channel.

Thanks in advance.

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  • #843
  • May 9, 2020 8:45pm May 9, 2020 8:45pm
Quoting Okydok
Hi there, May I ask which option between A and C is most convenient or even correct? Following creation rules for FCP, we should find the Highest Low (or bottom preceding the last maximum peak) for point 1, from there point 2 and then 3. And this is draw on figure A. I've found several examples where different Highest Lows are used and they does not preceed the maximum peak. Figure C Figure B is just the middle point scenario between A and C, where a trigger candle is not present and we must correct our channel. Thanks in advance. {image}
channel needs to be redrawn (or not redrawn) as new fractals are created.
so it would depend on the time you are at the computer (represented by vertical yellow line)

A - present no set up.
B - channel shifted and entry after retrace (assuming your style is to wait for retrace)
C - channel need not be redrawn as at that point in time there was already retrace coming at B.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #844
  • May 10, 2020 3:45am May 10, 2020 3:45am
Can someone help me confirm if I have the right channel? Thanks.
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  • #845
  • May 10, 2020 3:59am May 10, 2020 3:59am
Quoting GPipz
Can someone help me confirm if I have the right channel? Thanks. {image}
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  • #846
  • May 10, 2020 4:48am May 10, 2020 4:48am
Thanks for your answer Inthebox,

Quoting Inthebox
{quote} channel needs to be redrawn (or not redrawn) as new fractals are created. {image}
In this case our point 1 now always will be the " Highest Low (or bottom preceding the last maximum peak)" and that was my initial concern trying to find a mechanical way to draw FCPs.

Based on fractals (assuming we are talking about Bill Williams Fractals) the FCP should be as follows:

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  • #847
  • May 10, 2020 5:09am May 10, 2020 5:09am
Quoting Okydok
Have a question to most experienced users...Which one of options below is the correct one? The channel created on A is wider but looks more balanced than B. {image}
In addition to what Inthebox said. Always pay attention to what did the price before the channel. In option "A" you include in the channel the area of pure upward movement. In this case, the probability of reaching the target projection levels is greatly reduced.
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Quoting Okydok
Hi there, May I ask which option between A and C is most convenient or even correct? Following creation rules for FCP, we should find the Highest Low (or bottom preceding the last maximum peak) for point 1, from there point 2 and then 3. And this is draw on figure A. I've found several examples where different Highest Lows are used and they does not preceed the maximum peak. Figure C Figure B is just the middle point scenario between A and C, where a trigger candle is not present and we must correct our channel. Thanks in advance. {image}
Inthebox said everything correctly. In my opinion, the best setting is option B. Two tops are approximately at the same level, in such cases we ignore the insignificant difference between the tops levels.
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sorry, I replaced the chart with a more accurate one.
  • #848
  • Edited 7:29am May 10, 2020 6:17am | Edited 7:29am
Quoting Okydok
Thanks for your answer Inthebox, {quote} In this case our point 1 now always will be the " Highest Low (or bottom preceding the last maximum peak)" and that was my initial concern trying to find a mechanical way to draw FCPs. Based on fractals (assuming we are talking about Bill Williams Fractals) the FCP should be as follows: {image}
in my opinion trading is not an exact science. can be mechanical but cannot be 100% mechanical.
what i try to illustrate with the following chart is that one has to consider the context of what is happening in the surrounding.
if i had drawn trend line B without consideration to trend line A, then all my entries will be getting a worst price than using trend line A.

likewise if two point 1 is ambiguous/not clear due to the levels made not much difference, then the basis is that i compare the present and previous, and take the one that can give me a better price.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #849
  • May 10, 2020 11:26am May 10, 2020 11:26am
AudNzd H1 and M15
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Forex Patient (One Trade, Once Daily)
  • #850
  • May 10, 2020 12:29pm May 10, 2020 12:29pm
Quoting afransami
AudNzd H1 and M15 {image} {image}
Hello.
Sorry, but this is not FCP...
  • #851
  • May 11, 2020 4:55am May 11, 2020 4:55am
Quoting Okydok
...
As you can see, the FСP model worked successfully.
TP2 reached. Forecast afransami did not come true.
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  • #852
  • May 11, 2020 11:23pm May 11, 2020 11:23pm
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #853
  • May 12, 2020 3:03am May 12, 2020 3:03am
ga result
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #854
  • May 12, 2020 4:00am May 12, 2020 4:00am
gj
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  • #855
  • May 12, 2020 6:46am May 12, 2020 6:46am
Hello Seysin, Thank you for sharing your method. From backtesting in hindsight it looks very good entry method for my approach. That said i use it only on M5 TF on predetermined key levels.
Now i start to forward test on some positions to explore more. My targets also not always agrees with your method, but i need much more testing to see which target approach works better for me.

After first seeing this approach i started to see this setups everywhere on every TF. I think it's important not to get lost in the bushes and observe this pattern on significant levels. Well at least for me as FCP is everywhere.

Heres one Deal i made today. UC. My exit obviously too early, i will adapt with time.
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Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
  • #856
  • May 12, 2020 8:32am May 12, 2020 8:32am
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #857
  • May 12, 2020 9:25am May 12, 2020 9:25am
Gold in play
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Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.
  • #858
  • May 12, 2020 9:50am May 12, 2020 9:50am
Quoting Inthebox
{image}
gj result
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #859
  • May 12, 2020 9:58am May 12, 2020 9:58am
Quoting His4XDUdenes
Hello Seysin, Thank you for sharing your method. From backtesting in hindsight it looks very good entry method for my approach. That said i use it only on M5 TF on predetermined key levels. Now i start to forward test on some positions to explore more. My targets also not always agrees with your method, but i need much more testing to see which target approach works better for me. After first seeing this approach i started to see this setups everywhere on every TF. I think it's important not to get lost in the bushes and observe this pattern on...
Hello. I am glad that you use the FCP and see the potential for yourself in this. This is really a very simple and effective method. Now in my trade I do not use anything else. Follow the top-down analysis HTF to LTF, consider the strong levels of S/R and the opening of the day. And that’s all. You always get your pips.
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  • #860
  • May 13, 2020 12:51am May 13, 2020 12:51am
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
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