Road To Nowhere

Subscribed. Good luck with your new endeavor. I always loved reading yours posts in TAF. Wish you all the best dbrown.

Keep it up buddy you can do it

looks like market is unanimously bullish dollar. wonder if she will remain that way during the new york trading session.

entered scout long on usdjpy just feeling flow.

No attack strategies at the moment as usdjpy is in sellers zone on daily charts (marked in red box). Im expecting topping action in this zone and if i see it I will follow her down. One must always stay with the NOW flow though. Although this is what I expect to happen here I must not be biased...I go where she goes
another reason for my expectations is the hourly has extended far passed the 50ma and eventually will revert to the mean. I think this is a good zone for that to happen. but for now she trends up...7ks are bullish dollar. It would be foolish to begin selling here. so just buy scouts for now with no attack strategies in play yet. we dont want to attack "walled cities" (sun tsu).

notice the 7ks ....changing of the guards?


starting to move bearish dollar together with increasing speed...usd jpy lagging behind



closed buy scout +10 pips.

darn missed a 15 pip run up...should left scout in. always best to stay with the flow

sell scout at daily sellers area. US is about to close so Ill probably have to wait for Japan to come on before anything shows

hey phil,

thanks for stopping by. I hope your trading is going well. This pandemic has definitely made things a little more difficult(at least for me) as my "feel" is all over the place at the moment. haven't felt in sync very much. would love to see how your long term trade strategy is going .Im looking into developing longer term strategy of my own as I have other obligations and can only trade a few days during the week. Im currently reading your thread from the beginning and finding lots of good info.

anyways, trade well and stop by often.

adding on to usdjpy short trade...small scout positions only.

red box is where I expect market makers test zone if momentum keeps up

closing all here due to time constraints. unable to babysit +22pips

Hi Dustin

the main USD pairs are trading sideways in the daily charts up to now, maybe this is why you are having trouble with the 'feel', as soon as a lower trend emerges it quickly changes in the hourly, try marking the daily range and trading off near the tops/bottom until things change, just a thought that may help. you may want to keep an eye on USDX while trading the USD pairs, i find it helps.

the longer the term the trade is over the more we open ourselves up to some unexpected moves from world events and news, maybe better to wait/look for a momentum bar in the hourly direction then drop down to find possible entries in the lower frames for the time you have, longer term trading should really only be done with F/cap you can allow for riskier things, in my experience, shorter term trading is more profitable in the long run, so from minutes to a few days max trades. i am currently finishing up my longer term trades as i have other things going on and have found it difficult to trade while these others things are being done that need my attention, the CV19 thing has interrupted/set back this other thing i am doing and so i am taking a break from trading while just concluding the last of my trades only.

once i post my last trade on that open account i am showing, i will likely just post some analysis now and again to keep my hand in, but it looks like i will not be trading full time again until next year now.

feel free to ask/discuss things/charts with me here or at my place, it just may take a longer to get a reply though as not at computer much now. good luck my friend.

regards

Phil.

phil,

thank you for the suggestion of scoping out the range plays on the daily. On the last chart I posted I have drawn the range on the daily for EurUSD and was the reason for my last trade with the usdjpy. I think you turned me on to the usdx a while ago in one of our conversations. I almost never trade without it on my screen now. So thank you

As for the longer term trading I was thinking more of trades lasting a couple days. due to my obligations during the day I can't be at my computer screen most days of the week but i would be able to check in frequently each day. More like trading hourly movements. I know we have discussed this a little bit before. I have been reading your thread from the beginning and it seems this is how you were doing some trades at the start? by mostly trading the hourly moves. My question would be how often/ long would you leave them unattended
like this trade starting here---->https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...40#post7364540

i guess im trying to figure if they can be babysat from afar

Hi Dustin

2014 in that link my friend, market was very different then, we had big moves very often both ways, that volatility made it easier and we could use 'time' more efficiently back then, now markets are slow, apart from the virus thing recently shaking things up but now we are in a range again, the slower the market the harder it is to trade longer term as this adds the risk of getting caught up in an 'event' much greater which in turn increases 'risk', then it will mean you will have to cut the loss or take forever to do a recovery, this is why I say trading shorter term creates better profits in my experience, if you have limited time it is better to use bigger trades to create the profit rather than hold longer with smaller trades I have found, biggest issue for most is they sit at the desk and 'must' find a trade, this is not the way to go unless you trading very short term only, I have done this and I am not suited to constantly taking a few pips here and there, some are very good at it because it suits their personality and gels well with their way of trading, for me I like to ride the bigger moves but that is just me and what suits and gels with me, protecting your trades as the market move to the next level is good but you have lots of b/e trades doing this over the longer you hold. Best is to try it in demo, you will trade differently to me and everyone else, sure there will some similarities but those differences will create something totally different in the results.

Track the highs and lows in the hourly, use the daily as bar by bar analysis and find trades in the highs and lows and hips and lops in the direction of the high frame analysis, easier said than done at times but think logically about the current move in each frame and how they may relate to each other, ask yourself when you sit in front of the charts ' am I in a fit state to trade' before you start, if you find yourself not in sync or think you may not be fit to trade today then walk away, this is why I am walking away for a while, I have other things on my mind and I am not 'fit' to trade until these other things are sorted, do what is 'best outcome' for your account - not what you want to do...AOW.

Regards

Phil.

thank you for the suggestion. I will stick to shorter term trades. Also, i think the amount of capital in this account is not sufficient enough for longer term/ higher pips moves trading. So probably best for me to be in and out.

After reading from the start of your thread I am trying to take a more cautious approach by stalking moves that are higher probability by analyzing daily and hourly then moving in to find best entries.

trade from yesterday i forgot to post...capitalizing on the duck hunt facilitated by yesterdays speech from fed chairman powell.



removed all here.

Todays trading not going so hot right now...

got caught out in a duck hunt and killed scouts here ... eurjpy

my reasoning behind the above trade shown here ---daily trend down and stalled out, h1 showed H + S pattern, I missed this trade yesterday while I was trading EUR
so I tried to get in on the move south today

I havent posted here in a while due to time restrictions. I havent been able to trade much due to other obligations. I have been thinking about going longer term by trading the 1 hour trend that way I can still trade during this busy time. This would mean leaving my trades unattended for periods of time (not recommended by fti) but others have found success doing the longer term thing. I have been contemplating this for a bit now and now Im thinking if I were to trade this way I may need to add more to my account to allow for bigger swings and other strategies. Also I am thinking about introducing a second account so that I can use hedging as a strategy since i live in the US and hedging is not allowed on the same account. It might get confusing trying to keep track of both accounts here so Im still deciding if thats what I want to do. It would be nice to have that as an option just in case it is needed. Even though I may attempt longer term trades i will still trade shorter term when I have free time to do so

scouting short the EURUSD for a longer term trade following the 1h. the upwards daily trend has stalled and the 1h trend is now down so sent scout out south.



I am free to trade short term today and it looks like the 7k is bearish dollar at the moment so I may trade another pair to absorb some of the drawdown on the euro. we will see

havent had much time to post to this journal. Been swamped with work with few days to trade here and there. Also, my style has changed and it is harder to take screen shots of each trade as my new style is a lot quicker in tempo now. Here's where Im at now... trading 5 minute up trend in rescue.

closed all positions on the last bar because this last up leg was really weak so I wanted to reduce exposure in case of reversal.