Random Trading EA with success

your EA is not closing trades in exact TP and SL , i mean closing in wrong tp / sl please solve this problem

Hi, the EA closes not at an exact value but "above" (TP) or "below" (SL). In an extreme volatile market situation it will certainly close pretty wrong.

To improve that I would recommend to insert TP and SL into the Orders using OrderModify().

I don't develop this EA any further as its just a proof of concept, not a professional EA for live accounts.

An MT5 EA of this creative masterpiece can be found here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...&goto=lastpost

I made a small modification to the code of the Expert Advisor so that the buying and selling operations were totally random.
The results obtained in backtesting reflect a zero sum market, with a mathematical expectation equal to zero for any benefit/risk ratio that is adopted since the hit/miss ratio is adjusted so that the result is always the same:

benefit/risk 1:1, implies a success/failure rate of 50% / 50%
mathematical expectation = (0.5 * 1) - (0.5 * 1) = 0

profit/risk 1.5: 1, implies a success/failure rate of 40% / 60%
mathematical expectation = (0.4 * 1.5) - (0.6 * 1) = 0

benefit/risk 4: 1, implies a success/failure rate of 20% / 80%
mathematical expectation = (0.2 * 4) - (0.8 * 1) = 0

This fact provides us with an excellent opportunity to achieve profitability, knowing that we can take advantage of the particularities that random events by nature present. I mean the following:

1. There is the same 50% probability of success or failure for an individual event
2. There is the same 50% probability of success or failure for two consecutive events with the same result
3. There is a 25% probability for three consecutive events with the same result, this implies that there is a 75% probability that the third event has the opposite result
4. There is a 12.5% probability for four consecutive events with the same result, this implies that there is an 87.5% probability that the fourth event has the opposite result
5. There is a 6% probability for five consecutive events with the same result, this implies that there is a 94% probability that the fifth event has the opposite result
6. There is a 3% probability for six consecutive events with the same result, this implies that there is a 97% probability that the sixth event has the opposite result
7. There is a 1% probability to seven consecutive events with the same result, this implies that there is a 99% probability that the seventh event has the opposite result
8. Seven consecutive events with the same result only occur once in 100 opportunities
9. If a martingale system is applied, increasing the volume in those events with the highest percentage of success, there is a high probability of achieving excellent profitability.

The only thing that is required is to design an Expert Advisor that is capable of identifying the sequences of events with the same result and placing orders with increasingly higher ratings as opportunities with a high percentage of success appear.

The snippet above is correct for all cases. If you introduce a random number generator to make trades then the trades are independent. Any calculation where odds change implies dependency, like the odds changing in blackjack when the deck is running out of cards.

The 50/50 odds will hold regardless of how many past successes or failures there have been. An example would be a fair coin flip where future flips don't depend on past flips at all.

Common sense tells us what you have just stated, but experimental results deny it. There is something in the nature of random numbers that can be checked with a simple excel sheet with generated random numbers, which allows us to see that just like the bunch of cards, a sample of 10,000 binary random numbers 0 and 1 show that their repetitions are always They are around 50/50, but as certain sample results are discarded, opportunities are running out and for the 50/50 equation to be met, the counterpart of results must be given in those that have not yet been discarded . You can also detect streaks of consecutive repetitions of these numbers that when plotted are displayed as trends.

For example, if we have a scenario in which we win 5 out of 10, and we have lost in the first 5 events, we can dare to say that we have a greater probability of winning in the next 5 events.