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Gejordan Weekly Journal

  • #1,001
  • May 5, 2020 9:36am May 5, 2020 9:36am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Nice trades. I saw the first trade you took as it was happening and was thinking to myself ....is that a break of 50 and retest? I was hesitating because of 2 reasons. 1. I had this idea that price has to travel some distance away from 50 after the break and then come back and retest. 2. Price is consolidating around the previous low(my lines) and will it act as support and go up ..? in that case my stop should be above the last Friday high..... so i skipped the trade. Thank you for the confirmation of that trade.
In the first one you are putting a concept into this type of trading that really doesn't have anything to do with it. The simple50 doesn't mean anything. It's a possible option to use to enter trades, that's it.

I like your second reason much better. Using your swing it didn't get below and stay below at that point. Later it did and you took a trade.

Confirmation of my trade is based only on what I have talked about since post 945. Price broke my swing, which means it may go lower. I want to go lower as stated Sunday. It got below the simple 50 and came back to it. I get involved.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,002
  • May 6, 2020 7:05pm May 6, 2020 7:05pm
No trades for yesterday.

I didn't get a chance to get in to the trade once it broke my lower line.

However,i see that there was significant swing low, higher (upper line) which provide an entry later during asian session....i didnt spot it on time.
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  • #1,003
  • May 6, 2020 7:47pm May 6, 2020 7:47pm
Quoting Rearden
No trades for yesterday. I didn't get a chance to get in to the trade once it broke my lower line. However,i see that there was significant swing low, higher (upper line) which provide an entry later during asian session....i didnt spot it on time. {image}
Some days I don't get a trade, don't force it. You've made 50 pips this week, it might be all you get this week, price might just run. Who knows.

Here is a pic, with how things stood at the end of the week and how they stand today, using consistent process.
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Entering week, I wanted to go down. I had two swings I could've used to determine its time to trade an idea #2 or #3 type trade. I called the top one aggressive, but it's really just the swing, the lower is just more conservative. Price came down and broke, so I Simple50 trade and retrace to pivot (both ideas) shown.

Now today I had an entry set higher (simple 50 big) and a retrace set lower (pivot - smaller)… neither hit. Oh well.

The current swing to tell me the move down is over sits at the obnoxious white line. Price can go all the way up there and it would be normal. For a more aggressive approach, the wick by the word Pivot could be used instead of the white line. But, I don't want to go long so the wick by the pivot is essentially just a point of reminder to not be greedy if I would get a short near the obnoxious white line.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,004
  • May 7, 2020 4:01pm May 7, 2020 4:01pm
Where price is now represents getting above and staying above the last swing, so my week is over. Good week, we'll see what price does tomorrow and then give it a look Sunday and pick it up again next week.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,005
  • May 7, 2020 8:22pm May 7, 2020 8:22pm
Here is a pic of the end of the down move for this style of trading.
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Price went below and stayed below the white line (pink arrow pointing to the area). At this point, my new top of the range is at the pink line above. At the end of the day, price went above and stayed above, so down move over for now as it pertains to idea #2 and idea #3 trades. News tomorrow, so price could certainly make a wild enough swing to re-engage, but I had a good week, so no need to spend time on Forex tomorrow.

This doesn't mean price won't move down just because it went above that swing, but I want to follow a consistent method for deciding to trade. And right now, the story is over for idea #2 and idea #3 trades in a week where I want to be short and price just warned me of something different.

Note: Yes, I did take the short from the pivot today down to S1, just forgot to pull it on there before I took the pic. 30 pips.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,006
  • May 8, 2020 10:52am May 8, 2020 10:52am
hi G,

If I may ask,(may be a beginner question). How do you determine a weekly bias? is it from a weekly chart? i have been looking at the weekly chart and found that it is ranging for past few weeks. Last week was bullish. So i thought it may retrace to somewhere middle of the last weekly candle and go up. It didn't do this. I understand when you say"we do not know where price will go and we are looking for a low risk opportunity with a consistent process. But what are the things that you normally look to determine whether the bias of a week is bullish or bearish.
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  • #1,007
  • Edited 8:06pm May 8, 2020 3:42pm | Edited 8:06pm
Quoting Rearden
hi G, If I may ask,(may be a beginner question). How do you determine a weekly bias? is it from a weekly chart? i have been looking at the weekly chart and found that it is ranging for past few weeks. Last week was bullish. So i thought it may retrace to somewhere middle of the last weekly candle and go up. It didn't do this. I understand when you say"we do not know where price will go and we are looking for a low risk opportunity with a consistent process. But what are the things that you normally look to determine whether the bias of a week is...

Been waiting on that question. It is "THE SECRET"!!!!! Why wasn't it asked on day one? But in reality, it is no secret and is ultimately not even needed if you can overcome the ETB and not start overtrading. If you can maintain awareness and not get lost in the desire to trade, you don't need it. BUT... hardly anyone can do this.


Let me unpack all of this.


For this, I use bias based on looking at the chart, sorry, I wish it was mechanical. I ask... where do I see the biggest value. Meaning... most of the time, I want to do the opposite of what I think everyone else wants to do. Sometimes this is clear, sometimes it's not. I've gotten fairly good at it. But I started out as unsuccessful as anyone over a decade ago and got better.


Does this mean you're screwed? Maybe. And Probably. Unless you can train yourself to be out of the ordinary. Most can't. Hell, I've tried for almost a decade to help others get out of there way just on this site and only need a couple of fingers to count the successes. In reality, the greatest service I have probably provided is to help so many decide not to trade - My biggest success of all. I always blame myself for being a bad teacher and try to come back with better ideas and methods to help. But, just maybe, it isn't me. That's a possibility, too.


I want you to honestly think about how hard it's been to do just what I suggested from post 945. I think we are on week 4 or 5 and I laid out exactly the direction I want to trade, ideas of where to trade from, and made a bunch of money. How hard has it been for you to get out of your way and do it? There are a number of reasons its hard, and a number of reasons its prudent to not listen to me if you are new to me, but thinking about this gives you examples of what you have to overcome in your mind to make money at this. Who will you trust, why can't you trust what you see, why can't you make the trade, would you trust me if I charged you, etc. Price is moving too "fast" up or down, but support is here, but resistance is there, but it's May and Jupiter is in alignment with the great Fartoosky. Why didn't you ask me about bias on day one, 7, 14, 21, etc. Hopefully you get my point.


How can you derive bias? Just like the trade entry ideas from post 945, there are any number of ways. You mentioned weekly candles. Ok, go pull up a weekly, stick a MACD on it and if the histogram is below zero on the weekly, only go short on the hourly, if it is above, only go long. In this example, the histogram crossed below on May, 20 2018. So, starting May 27, 2018 you could have said I only want to trade short and I only want to go short on idea #2 and idea #3 trades. Go back as far as you can on the hourly and enter each week saying you only want to go short. Follow swings and take the shorts. Go actually do it. I know you will Rearden, so I am challenging everyone else. Looks pretty good. Now, introduce reality. What happens all those weeks there were no entries? What happens when you got bored? What happens if you got stopped? What happens when you change the rules of what a swing is because man you want to trade. Those things you will not know unless you actually do it live and see how you react. Rearden, you've traded, list out all the ways you've sabotaged yourself over the years.


Bias idea #2 - Put a 52simple on a weekly, if its moving up, look long, down, look short. Flat, no bias follow the move. Same exercise. Rearden, I remember you mentioning market wizards... some of them might say look at the economy and the effect on the dollar. Supposedly, we are in a financial crisis again and everyone is going to want dollars. Should strengthen the dollar. Always go short EU until that resolves.


That's not what these tools were made for, and fundamentals are tough, but they are as good as ideas as any to make your brain feel better about what it needs to do next... the real #^$%, the scariest and most exhilarating thing... enter a trade in a smart manner.


Now, imagine you had no bias. ever. How would you trade? We aren't going to answer that, but I think trading like this will ultimately answer that. You don't get to move past post 945 trading until you master it. First with me, then on your own. Of course, if you master it, you won't want to do anything else.



Be bullish on you.
  • #1,008
  • May 9, 2020 2:23am May 9, 2020 2:23am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Been waiting on that question. It is "THE SECRET"!!!!! Why wasn't it asked on day one? But in reality, it is no secret and is ultimately not even needed if you can overcome the ETB and not start overtrading. If you can maintain awareness and not get lost in the desire to trade, you don't need it. BUT... hardly anyone can do this. Let me unpack all of this. For this, I use bias based on looking at the chart, sorry, I wish it was mechanical. I ask... where do I see the biggest value. Meaning... most of the time, I want to do the opposite of...
Hi G,
Thanks for this great post. And especially this"Now, introduce reality. What happens all those weeks there were no entries? What happens when you got bored? What happens if you got stopped? What happens when you change the rules of what a swing is because man you want to trade. Those things you will not know unless you actually do it live and see how you react."

I was thinking about some of the points you mentioned above for past two days since i saw your chart on the two trades on May 6 on post 1003 especially me forcing the trade by bringing down the PO. What happens when entries are not there.... what happens when we get stopped out.....and most importantly when I miss trades....
I think i am changing the process based on the recent trades (how I identify a swing, how do I manage the next trade if my last trade runs a lot after I exit etc.

I think i have to read this post few more times and think about it. I am quite caught up with a few things today so didnt get much time for watching the past charts. I just managed to do exercise #1(MACD) for 2 months from May 2018. To avoid hindsight analysis, I used the F12 key to do a step by step analysis. These are the charts. White swings, arrows, and stop sign indicate swings identified and ended up positive...Red are the negative ones..... I did this for shorts only.
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  • #1,009
  • May 9, 2020 9:21am May 9, 2020 9:21am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Hi G, Thanks for this great post. And especially this"Now, introduce reality. What happens all those weeks there were no entries? What happens when you got bored? What happens if you got stopped? What happens when you change the rules of what a swing is because man you want to trade. Those things you will not know unless you actually do it live and see how you react." I was thinking about some of the points you mentioned above for past two days since i saw your chart on the two trades on May 6 on post 1003 especially me forcing the trade...
Awesome for doing the work. Awesome for thinking about what I mentioned. I would encourage you to WRITE on a piece of paper the takeaways you come up with from self examination and start addressing them. You won't solve them immediately, but you will be aware of them and then it becomes more likely you intervene when bad habits occur.

As for the charts, please don't post them all, you can if you want, but I'd rather you do them and summarize your thoughts and lessons learned. I want to try and keep as little distance between here and post 945 mainly with live trading and discussion.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,010
  • May 10, 2020 4:10pm May 10, 2020 4:10pm
Bias for the week.. UP. I wanna be long.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,011
  • May 12, 2020 9:03am May 12, 2020 9:03am
Took some drawdown on the simple50 and the first retrace location, but everything turned out right. There were some clues to the drawdown, so I went small on the early positions and big on the bigger retrace. Nothing disrupted our desire to be long.

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We want to be long. The white line is our swing low when price made it above and stayed above our first pink line. We then came back down and we needed to break the next pink line and stay above to move our swing up. I circled the area to show it made it above, but did not stay above. This is a good hint that price might go back down and test the lows. This is a good reminder to be risk aware when position sizing up top at that simple50 and on a retrace. I then put two big orders down lower, anticipating a bigger retrace. One hit, the other didn't. The upper positions averaged 50 pips each. The lower position was good for 75pips or so.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,012
  • Edited 6:01pm May 12, 2020 5:45pm | Edited 6:01pm
Quoting gejordan
Took some drawdown on the simple50 and the first retrace location, but everything turned out right. There were some clues to the drawdown, so I went small on the early positions and big on the bigger retrace. Nothing disrupted our desire to be long. {image} We want to be long. The white line is our swing low when price made it above and stayed above our first pink line. We then came back down and we needed to break the next pink line and stay above to move our swing up. I circled the area to show it made it above, but did not stay above. This is...

This is an excellent post. It shows the things I have to improve. One of the recurring pattern i saw while doing the exercise in post 1007 is the description you have mentioned about the circle area. "This is a good hint that price might go back down and test the lows. " But I didnt do this "This is a good reminder to be risk aware when position sizing up top at that simple50 and on a retrace"

After this trade, I placed two PO(Second PO was initially at 1.0810 . Then I had self doubt thinking if I am chasing the price and also thought the risk is higher there and then I moved it lower expecting a sudden spike lower which MAY take me in...) . It didnt take me in. But quite honestly, I should have realised that the retraced has already happened as explained in post 981 and then entered on market at 1.0793. When price was at 1.0793 I thought let it clear 1.0800 BRN and stay above and come back...lol.

Also, my stop for the first trade was based on the wick at white arrow. But that is a location where the price would naturally go. I should have kept it lower adjusting my position sizing just as you did.

Again G, Thank you for showing your trades. It gives confidence and also pointers for improvements.
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  • #1,013
  • Edited 6:42pm May 12, 2020 6:20pm | Edited 6:42pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} This is an excellent post. It shows the things i have to improve. One of the recurring pattern i saw while doing the exercise in post 1007 is the description you have mentioned about the circle area. "This is a good hint that price might go back down and test the lows. " But I didnt do this "This is a good reminder to be risk aware when position sizing up top at that simple50 and on a retrace" After this I placed two PO(Second PO was initially at 1.0810 . Then I had self doubt thinking if I am chasing the price and also thought the risk...
No problem. Just read exactly what I write, try not to edit it with your filter. I know this is difficult. Been there.

Yes, if you still wanted to be long, there was no reason to exit unless you read the chart wrong or are sized beyond your comfort. Also, that white arrow area is not significant. It's a pause on the way to the eventual high that turned the action up. More significant would be the pullback after the high was made, but still it didn't become the swing because it didn't get above and stay above.

We are trading swings here on an hourly based on a plan we put together on Sunday and check at the beginning and end of day.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,014
  • May 12, 2020 6:46pm May 12, 2020 6:46pm
Get out of here Mikepip. Before you get sucked back in. (sorry, couldn't help it)
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,015
  • May 12, 2020 6:57pm May 12, 2020 6:57pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} This is an excellent post. It shows the things I have to improve. One of the recurring pattern i saw while doing the exercise in post 1007 is the description you have mentioned about the circle area. "This is a good hint that price might go back down and test the lows. " But I didnt do this "This is a good reminder to be risk aware when position sizing up top at that simple50 and on a retrace" After this trade, I placed two PO(Second PO was initially at 1.0810 . Then I had self doubt thinking if I am chasing the price and also thought the...
Also, go back to posts 958 and 959... You got lucky there but almost had the same thing happen. Check out where I got entry and where you had your stop. Thankfully that one clipped me and didn't clip you and worked out for both of us... but generally the same idea with just a slightly different twist.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,016
  • May 12, 2020 7:26pm May 12, 2020 7:26pm
Quoting gejordan
Get out of here Mikepip. Before you get sucked back in. (sorry, couldn't help it)
Haha you got me!
  • #1,017
  • May 13, 2020 7:43am May 13, 2020 7:43am
I'm going ahead and closing out this one. 40 pips idea #2 trade. (retrace) I think that's 200pips or so for the week.
My idea #3 (simple50) trade was missed by half a pip as you can see, bummer.

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Notice we went above and stayed above and we didn't get the big drawdown before the move like yesterday. It's not always like this, but note the differences and pay attention in this type of market and then note if it holds up as markets inevitably tighten again in the near future.
Be bullish on you.
  • #1,018
  • May 13, 2020 8:56am May 13, 2020 8:56am
Quoting gejordan
I'm going ahead and closing out this one. 40 pips idea #2 trade. (retrace) I think that's 200pips or so for the week. My idea #3 (simple50) trade was missed by half a pip as you can see, bummer. {image} Notice we went above and stayed above and we didn't get the big drawdown before the move like yesterday. It's not always like this, but note the differences and pay attention in this type of market and then note if it holds up as markets inevitably tighten again in the near future.
i was waiting for a deeper retrace to 1.0820 area and missed the trade.
  • #1,019
  • May 13, 2020 6:33pm May 13, 2020 6:33pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Also, go back to posts 958 and 959... You got lucky there but almost had the same thing happen. Check out where I got entry and where you had your stop. Thankfully that one clipped me and didn't clip you and worked out for both of us... but generally the same idea with just a slightly different twist.
I missed this post.

Yes, I see this. I got lucky by few pip on that trade. Worked then and caught me this time. SL should have been beyond the main High/low by few pips.
  • #1,020
  • May 14, 2020 10:33am May 14, 2020 10:33am
Likely the last of the week. About 40 pips total when I net out the 3 trades. Of course, it was a big one because I got the best entries with bigger size and broke even on the smallest size.. That's now about 240 pips for the week with nice return.

Price made a new swing low two days ago on the new high. Price went and tried the high yesterday and was having no part of it (I exited there yesterday because it was enough. You can see some blue lines if you look close, that was the area I looked for price to go, but it doesn't have to get there to make money. If I look at the top of the swing and feel good about the money made then I don't have to sit there and see if it hits my target so I can say I am right. Profit over Ego)

Because I exited, I could then see how far it would retrace with no need to enter again yesterday. Today starts and I see we still want to go up, we have pulled back quite a bit and i have a theory, because of the action at the top, that we might get down to the swing low or near it. So I place an entry below yesterday low, one deeper down and one just for a stop run of the swing. All together would have been an acceptable loss for me. Got profit. Took it here because I honestly don't know which way we'll swing from here... we could go up again or we could go after the lows. I don't need to find out. I made money and grew my account.

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Be bullish on you.
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