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Gejordan Weekly Journal

  • #981
  • Apr 28, 2020 9:54am Apr 28, 2020 9:54am
Quoting Rearden
great trades. I put a Pending order today right after the 1000 am candle (I was expecting a retrace) . It didnt trigger.
In this type of trading, this is the retrace for entry.

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Be bullish on you.
  • #982
  • Apr 28, 2020 10:36am Apr 28, 2020 10:36am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} In this type of trading, this is the retrace for entry. {image}
Yes. Actually this makes a lot of sense. Break... Hold above... and then the retrace to a location with minimum risk as much as possible. Thank you for this.
  • #983
  • Apr 28, 2020 3:44pm Apr 28, 2020 3:44pm
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Yes. Actually this makes a lot of sense. Break... Hold above... and then the retrace to a location with minimum risk as much as possible. Thank you for this.
Exactly, you've watched me trade on a bunch of timeframes over the years, make sure your brain sorts those things out and doesn't default to older information.

On another note...
Keeping an eye on the swing low that will indicate up moves are over for the moment. This will likely dictate the rest of the week and if it breaks, I will need a new long signal before I re-engage. Fortunate to have taken profit this morning. You've now seen me take profit and price continued to run, and take profit and price came all the way back. There is no perfect management of this, just consistent decision making.
Be bullish on you.
  • #984
  • Apr 29, 2020 8:49am Apr 29, 2020 8:49am
Price came back to the simple50 and close to the low swing (white line). We want to trade up. This would fit any of the ideas. Can't get much lower risk than this. This might continue up, but I closed for another 40pips. 160 for the week.

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Be bullish on you.
  • #985
  • Apr 29, 2020 9:34am Apr 29, 2020 9:34am
nice trade.

1. I placed a PO Yesterday and missed it within one or 2 pips.... I am not sure why it didnt trigger.
2. trade 2 was very agressive. I placed a PO right below 50 SMA after it broke the aggressive swing(Second white arrow)... hold and came back towards it. It didnt trigger.
3. When price revisited that area i entered a trade and took some profits(15 pips) at the recent high and moved second to BE. This was very risky trade as its the second time visiting that area. so i was quick to take profit and move to BE.
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  • #986
  • Apr 29, 2020 10:01am Apr 29, 2020 10:01am
Quoting Rearden
nice trade. 1. I placed a PO Yesterday and missed it within one or 2 pips.... I am not sure why it didnt trigger. 2. trade 2 was very agressive. I placed a PO right below 50 SMA after it broke the aggressive swing(Second white arrow)... hold and came back towards it. It didnt trigger. 3. When price revisited that area i entered a trade and took some profits(15 pips) at the recent high and moved second to BE. This was very risky trade as its the second time visiting that area. so i was quick to take profit and move to BE. {image}
I had a second entry down there as well, also didn't trigger, missed by very little. Great place to be long from whether it works out or not.

Be careful with multiple tries, might lead to your mind becoming overactive and leading to evil-trading-brain habits down the road. (note for everyone: Ok, if you are day-trading, but the point of this series of posts is to get a feel of swing-like trading.)

The positive, you were going in the direction price was showing us.

If anyone else is having any success with these posts, be brave like Rearden, let me know, I like seeing what you do with it.
Be bullish on you.
  • #987
  • Edited 9:54am Apr 30, 2020 9:38am | Edited 9:54am
My last one for the week. This is a simple50 (idea #3), entry was the simple50 location at end of day yesterday. Good location also as we were getting some holding in that area from the day before. A bit bigger stop, so smaller position size, but another 50 pips. 210 for the week. 900+ for the month. Don't focus on the total, just focus on the process and being profitable.

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Lesson for the past couple of weeks... I wanted to be long both weeks, but last week, price didn't fully shift until the last day of the week. So, I may not have been able to trade an idea #2 or #3, but I could do some idea #1, but I know the limits until price fully shifts. But this week, I wanted to go long and it shifted at the end of last week, so I enter the week ready to rock.
Be bullish on you.
  • #988
  • Apr 30, 2020 10:22am Apr 30, 2020 10:22am
Quoting gejordan
My last one for the week. This is a simple50 (idea #3), entry was the simple50 location at end of day yesterday. Good location also as we were getting some holding in that area from the day before. A bit bigger stop, so smaller position size, but another 50 pips. 210 for the week. 900+ for the month. Don't focus on the total, just focus on the process and being profitable. {image} Lesson for the past couple of weeks... I wanted to be long both weeks, but last week, price didn't fully shift until the last day of the week. So, I may not have been...
Great lesson.

When it broke the 50 sma to the downside, i was a bit hesitant to pull the trigger. But looking back, I see that there was no clear break to downside. Price tested the previous swing low and went straight back up. Combining this with the weekly bias, your entry makes a lot of sense.
  • #989
  • Apr 30, 2020 10:35am Apr 30, 2020 10:35am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Great lesson. When it broke the 50 sma to the downside, i was a bit hesitant to pull the trigger. But looking back, I see that there was no clear break to downside. Price tested the previous swing low and went straight back up. Combining this with the weekly bias, your entry makes a lot of sense.
Going below the 50 doesn't mean the up move is over, going below the swing and staying below is the indicator that this may be happening. The simple50 is just an idea of where to enter.
Be bullish on you.
  • #990
  • Edited 4:21pm May 1, 2020 3:53pm | Edited 4:21pm
Big April, I'll start May next week. EU still in an up move. I'll take a look Sunday and see which way I want to go. This series starts on Post 945.

Trading is really no harder than this. We make it harder. If you aren't having success spend the weekend thinking about all the ways you make trading harder than it needs to be. Write them down! Then jot down an idea about how you can keep from doing those things. Try to put a few in action next week.

If you are new, write down why you don't think trading can be this simple. Go to the trading systems area. Spend the weekend in that zoo. Something in there look easier? Did they tell you Sunday what they were going to do and then tell you where and then it all worked out? Write it down.

Start fighting the evil trading brain now and keep it at bay or be played by it until the money runs out.

Some exercises for you...
*Week of August 18th, 2019 - I wanted to go long. Could I have done this? Did Price ever show me it wanted to go long? Does that week look familiar to a recent week?
*Week of August 25th, 2019 - I had no bias, so I follow the move. Was that possible?
*Week of Sep 1, 2019 - No bias, follow the move. Any trades? What was the direction? Did it change?
*Week of Sep 8, 2019 - No bias, follow the move. Was it possible? Did it change?
*Week of Sep 15, 2019 - bias Short, Could I have done this?

Do you have a system that could handle that swing of days? Does that look harder than what we had this past month? Do you even know how to look at that stretch and figure out anything? Write it down.

I know 99% that stop by here will never do this. I know you won't go back to post 945, read it, do the exercises and follow along the 44 posts back to here. But if you do, you might just know how to handle the next big crisis when volatility increases and price makes big directional swings. That was no 900 pip stretch (find 250 pips). But by seeing it during an easier time (now), you'll know how to handle it in less directional times. This increased range will pass and we'll be back to smaller moves with longer hold times... will you be able to handle it? Will you be jumpy, getting out when you should get in? You gotta start somewhere, somewhere simple. With simple concepts. Simple concepts with a low risk or a high chance of working out or both.
Be bullish on you.
  • #991
  • May 2, 2020 2:26am May 2, 2020 2:26am
Quoting gejordan
Big April, I'll start May next week. EU still in an up move. I'll take a look Sunday and see which way I want to go. This series starts on Post 945. Trading is really no harder than this. We make it harder. If you aren't having success spend the weekend thinking about all the ways you make trading harder than it needs to be. Write them down! Then jot down an idea about how you can keep from doing those things. Try to put a few in action next week. If you are new, write down why you don't think trading can be this simple. Go to the trading systems...
Thank you for the Post Ge

My attempt. Please comment if I got it right when time permits.
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  • #992
  • May 2, 2020 11:28am May 2, 2020 11:28am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Thank you for the Post Ge My attempt. Please comment if I got it right when time permits. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
I'll go pic by pic

First pic - Very good. Would just add the one answer that price never showed it wanted to be long. So, we wanted to be long and if we want to be long before price shows it, we better have low risk. Which you identified. You also showed shorts, which was the current move, but we wanted to be long? Can you handle not taking the shorts? Will it eat at you? Don't have to answer, but definitely have to consider. That's where the mind *#!# of trading is born. Dreaming of all the things we could've/should've done in hindsight but didn't do.. Well, there is a reason we didn't do it... and you have to remind your brain of that reason or the brain will develop its own plan and the evil trading brain cannot trade!

Pic 2 - look at it again, were we in an up or down move at the end of the week prior? When did we change direction, if ever?

Pic 3 - did price get above and stay above for a couple of hours your point #1? How about the approach with location #2? Notice your aggressive reads of this chart and the last? Does that say something about you?

Pic 4 - Keep it to this style from post 945 on. Your last idea to go long, why? Did we want to be long? (I mean it's a low risk spot regardless, but keep it to this style.) Your first long idea, excellent. We are long from the week before. Then, your short idea is good. But what about that stop... were you stopped out or were you able to get best entry from lowest risk conservative area? Then price went to target. If I went to sleep at the period separator that day, I wanted to be short. I could enter at the simple 50 with a bigger stop and at the top with bigger position and less stop. If I know news is coming, I could log on and manage, if I don't want to trade news, I could pass. Some things to review.

Pic 5 - I think you can move that white line up. But you still identified the down move. Now, we have a simple 50, an idea #2, and a near the top of range. What would you take? Would you take any, would you scared because price is moving up and you are entering down? Can you handle a 50 or 70 pip stop? Can you wait 3 days for price to get back to the bottom of the range? Then you went into the next week... it was a no bias week... so perfect look at following the move.
Be bullish on you.
  • #993
  • Edited 8:25am May 3, 2020 5:58am | Edited 8:25am
Pic 4 - Keep it to this style from post 945 on. Your last idea to go long, why? Did we want to be long? (I mean it's a low risk spot regardless, but keep it to this style.)
Your first long idea, excellent. We are long from the week before. Then, your short idea is good. But what about that stop... were you stopped out or were you able to get best entry from lowest risk conservative area? Then price went to target.

A: Yes. I didnt notice about the better entry at 100% retracement.. For this the price has to be atleast 10 pips above 1.1068 or above 1.1084 to be safest.

If I went to sleep at the period separator that day, I wanted to be short. I could enter at the simple 50 with a bigger stop and at the top with bigger position and less stop. If I know news is coming, I could log on and manage, if I don't want to trade news, I could pass. Some things to review
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  • #994
  • May 3, 2020 3:36pm May 3, 2020 3:36pm
Quoting Rearden
Pic 4 - Keep it to this style from post 945 on. Your last idea to go long, why? Did we want to be long? (I mean it's a low risk spot regardless, but keep it to this style.) Your first long idea, excellent. We are long from the week before. Then, your short idea is good. But what about that stop... were you stopped out or were you able to get best entry from lowest risk conservative area? Then price went to target. A: Yes. I didnt notice about the better entry at 100% retracement.. For this the price has to be atleast 10 pips above 1.1068 or above...
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1588404397

This was your pic 4 I was commenting on. The point I was trying to make was that you mentioned a long at the white arrow, but at that time we were looking to go short. The rest of my commentary was to hit the point of position sizing for various stop sizes. Don't gamble, trade.
Be bullish on you.
  • #995
  • May 3, 2020 4:00pm May 3, 2020 4:00pm
Quoting Rearden
Pic 4 - Keep it to this style from post 945 on. Your last idea to go long, why? Did we want to be long? (I mean it's a low risk spot regardless, but keep it to this style.) Your first long idea, excellent. We are long from the week before. Then, your short idea is good. But what about that stop... were you stopped out or were you able to get best entry from lowest risk conservative area? Then price went to target. A: Yes. I didnt notice about the better entry at 100% retracement.. For this the price has to be atleast 10 pips above 1.1068 or above...
Week of 18th - Yes, you are making the simple hard. We pushed lower and stayed lower on that last day of the week, making your white line the swing. It was broken on the explosion up and price stayed up. So we went into that next week in an up move

Week of 25th is the trickiest situation you will see. It's in the eye of the beholder if you believe we went higher and stayed higher at the top and opened the week breaking a swing low. The other option is the conservative option that we aren't moving down until the bottom of that big up move is broken. My real point here in asking about your aggressiveness is to make you think about conservative and aggressive reads of a chart and trading with low risk if you are aggressive. Listen to your instincts and re-assess/pass on a trade if needed.

Week of 1st - Good job and analysis

Week of 15th - You don't have to do the simple 50 there or the retrace if its too much stop or triggers the evil trading brain or causes stress. Just wait and see if you get the trade short with the lowest risk from the top. Your damned if you do, damned if you don't on these. You take the lower and stress out with big stop, you wait for the top trade and get mad if it doesn't make it there. As you know, this is the part of trading we have to manage the most. The mind $#%^ of our decisions and sometimes missed decisions. Then we have to have the patience to see we are still moving down so there is no real reason to exit unless it hits a target we are happy with. Then you have to know your current market situation to know if its reasonable to wait for 20 pips, 30 pips, 100 pips.

Good Job
Be bullish on you.
  • #996
  • May 3, 2020 4:04pm May 3, 2020 4:04pm
Since I am on here... I want to be short this week. Find your swing, adjust when needed, and you'll now what I'll be doing.
Be bullish on you.
  • #997
  • May 3, 2020 7:02pm May 3, 2020 7:02pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Week of 18th - Yes, you are making the simple hard. We pushed lower and stayed lower on that last day of the week, making your white line the swing. It was broken on the explosion up and price stayed up. So we went into that next week in an up move Week of 25th is the trickiest situation you will see. It's in the eye of the beholder if you believe we went higher and stayed higher at the top and opened the week breaking a swing low. The other option is the conservative option that we aren't moving down until the bottom of that big up move...
Thanks Ge for the in depth Analysis and advise.
  • #998
  • May 5, 2020 5:43am May 5, 2020 5:43am
Quoting gejordan
Since I am on here... I want to be short this week. Find your swing, adjust when needed, and you'll now what I'll be doing.
Caught a 50 pip idea #2 short. The higher one didnt trigger. But that is ok. Will be looking for shorts if it comes back to 1.09 area or if it breaks swing low, hold below and give a low risk entry
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  • #999
  • May 5, 2020 7:59am May 5, 2020 7:59am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Caught a 50 pip idea #2 short. The higher one didnt trigger. But that is ok. Will be looking for shorts if it comes back to 1.09 area or if it breaks swing low, hold below and give a low risk entry {image}
Awesome!

Here are my two... I had a higher swing (white line) and took a simple50 yesterday morning when I woke up and price was holding around it. Price went to target last night as I slept. 106 pips.

Then price broke the more conservative swing, as Rearden shows, and my entry at the pivot hit last night while I slept and closed it this morning. 73 pips. I also had a higher simple50 that did not trigger based on the conservative swing.

Great start to the month.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be bullish on you.
  • #1,000
  • May 5, 2020 8:56am May 5, 2020 8:56am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Awesome! Here are my two... I had a higher swing (white line) and took a simple50 yesterday morning when I woke up and price was holding around it. Price went to target last night as I slept. 106 pips. Then price broke the more conservative swing, as Rearden shows, and my entry at the pivot hit last night while I slept and closed it this morning. 73 pips. I also had a higher simple50 that did not trigger based on the conservative swing. Great start to the month. {image}
Nice trades.

I saw the first trade you took as it was happening and was thinking to myself ....is that a break of 50 and retest? I was hesitating because of 2 reasons.
1. I had this idea that price has to travel some distance away from 50 after the break and then come back and retest.
2. Price is consolidating around the previous low(my lines) and will it act as support and go up ..? in that case my stop should be above the last Friday high.....

so i skipped the trade.

Thank you for the confirmation of that trade.
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