The Bucking Bronco

Squared 870

Now it will be interesting.

-5

Strong level... difficult to follow from here.

Please elaborate a bit further this standpoint. interesting idea...

This is enough.
Mine is an invitation.
It is a starting point for personal meditation and investigation.

Study and practice. "Scientia est potentia."

Happy 1st of May - International Labour Day... The day of the workers, so strange in this strange 2020.
I think of the failures that this "development model" produces on man and nature.
I think of the possible labour conflicts that could arise in this post-virus.
I have already said: I am somewhat pessimistic. I really hope I'm wrong.

I'll wait up to short again!

Nice one. First entry 24.013.

Dr. Frans Osinga summarizes Boyd’s initial thoughts on the importance and distinction of Orientation:

"To survive and grow within a complex, ever changing world of conflict,
it is necessary to have insight and vision, focus and direction.
To that end, Boyd posits, we must effectively and efficiently orient ourselves;
that is, we must quickly and accurately develop mental images, or schema,
to help comprehend and cope with the vast array of threatening and non-threatening events we face."

Boyd contented that in competitive situation, be it combat, sports or debate,
the opponent with the relatively quicker loop will, at times, have a more relevant picture of the unfolding situation
because he or she is shaping it rather than being forced to adapt to it..

This mismatch in orientation can provide a fleeting opportunity for the quicker side to continue to act to exploit the effects of the first move,
before the slower side understands what is happening.

If the quicker side can maintain this mismatch,
the slower side will become increasingly disconnected from the environment
and their actions will become increasingly unrelated to the actual situation.
They will be driven solely by perception.

As this process continues, the relatively slower side continues to generate increasingly irrelevant observations,
leading to more disconnected decisions, and so forth.
The relatively slower side’s loop will fold back in on itself as confusion and disorder increase;
generating an internally focused close loop.

If this mismatch is combined with menacing pressure of a life or death situation,
the relatively slower side’s loop quickly degenerates into chaos, panic, and ultimate collapse.

Anything familiar?
Can a Fighter Pilot help us to trade correctly?
We are talking about Mental Models.

DAX Ger30. H1. Last close.

Dow - US30 H1. Yesterday. We had a new Breakdown attempt.

Market decided to force and anticipate the completion of the original Wedges that were forming.
First, the inclination was bend to the right.
Then, the March's Gaps were not filled completely leaving the action unfinished.

No predictions, here. We'll see. Be prepared.
Let the others (and the crystalballing analysts) use their beloved, useless, annoying "should, would, could"!
Wait for the next move on the chart to react.

First.
I call it the Tower of Babel of Trading.
It is typical of Forex Factory: the same words are used but different things are meant.
This is why it is impossible to understand each other.
This is the result of completely amateurism in the Trading field: everyone can do it even if they know nothing.
Example.
What is the true meaning (seriously and technically) of the expressions "Buy the Dips" and "Sell the rips" (aka sell the rallies)?

Buy the dips, or on the dips, is to take advantage of a pullback, or temporarily lower prices,
in order to purchase an instrument in a market that is rising.
A dip is a small move downward in prices that have been STEADILY RISING. So, in a confirmed Uptrend!

In a confirmed Downtrend, a market that is declining, we talk about "Sell the Rips" o "Sell the Rallies."

It is clear? That is the correct terminology and its correct usage.

On the contrary to buy in a Downtrend (or sell a Uptrend) – that's it against the market - is called "Averaging down":
an investing strategy in which a trader purchases additional quantity of a previously initiated investment after the price has dropped further.
It is a manoeuvrer made to decrease the average price (cost basis) at which the investor purchased the instrument HOPING in its future rise.
The main idea behind the strategy of averaging down, is that if prices rise, they don't have to rise as far for the investor to be showing a profit on their position. (If, on the other hand, the price of the asset falls, the losses will be amplified.)

As I said, I'm against any type of simplification and vulgarisation.
At least, please, let's use the right words. Trading is a serious profession.

I'm against averaging down.
("Averaging down" and "buying and selling simultaneously on the same instrument" is what I called “rummaging through the rubbish”!)
If you bought a rising trend and it dips below key support, it would be a bad idea to average down;
you would be more prudent to cut losses and (maybe) go short instead.

As Paul Tudor Jones perfectly synthesised: Losers (people incapable to correctly follow a trend) average losers.
But nevertheless, on Forex Factory, very few will understand what I'm talking about.

Second.
I am - on these pages of mine - theorising and practising a completely different "System of Thought"!

Aim:
to understand how the mind evolves an interior mental orientation
that permits individuals to cope with changing external conditions (i.e., with a changing environment)
How to take correct decisions and take actions.

Problem:
all observations of the external world are filtered through the cognitive apparatus of the observer
Therefore observations cannot be separated from the various interior mental processes of each observer
(are you seeing what "Is"... or "What you want to see"?)

Implication:
any description of a complex reality can be viewed through a variety of mental concepts that individuals & groups use to represent observed reality
(i.e., the multitude of different perspectives which make up one’s mental orientation. - Knowledge + beliefs + individual characteristics)

Recall the Goal:
Increase one’s capacity for independent action in a competitive environment
(with limited Skills & Resources)

Remember:
We are trying to overcome any form of subjectivism.
The OODA Loop is an unpredictable evolutionary Phenomenon that is always prone to chaos.
Rules and objects must be clear and perfectly defined.
We are interested only in pure facts: the behaviour of prices on chart through space and time.
As per Livermore and Gann's lesson, we want to eliminate any sort of personal "opinion".
Finalised training is the key.

"To learn about the market, ask the market - only then can you become a detestable market demon." - Honma Munehisa, Fountain of Gold (1755)
Technical applications of this principle can be explicitly find in Sun Tzu, Livermore and fti's teaching.

We have already discussed the matter: "Probing Method" and "Wise use of Scouts."

Objectivity and Flexibility. Dance as "Let yourself be moved by the music..." - Bill Williams