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WTI Crude Oil (TRENDSURFING - with the help of the model)

  • #221
  • Apr 20, 2020 5:48am Apr 20, 2020 5:48am
Wow... price dropping... Will wait a few more days (to see/estimate possible trend; hoping for the UP) and will then re-active TE 2020 with the goals you voted most for... 100% Return, 20% DD (Annual).
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #222
  • Apr 20, 2020 4:18pm Apr 20, 2020 4:18pm
Quoting auricforecas
Wow... price dropping... Will wait a few more days (to see/estimate possible trend; hoping for the UP) and will then re-active TE 2020 with the goals you voted most for... 100% Return, 20% DD (Annual).
I'm more conservative I voted 50% return with 10% drawdown WTI definitively broke the $20 support today dropping by $2.65 or 13% to $17.10. The next support level should be at $15 with $20 being the new resistance. I think that the trend will continue downward.
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  • #223
  • Apr 20, 2020 4:21pm Apr 20, 2020 4:21pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} I'm more conservative I voted 50% return with 10% drawdown WTI definitively broke the $20 support today dropping by $2.65 or 13% to $17.10. The next support level should be at $15 with $20 being the new resistance. I think that the trend will continue downward. {image}
I wanted to jump in the WTI today but it is a total mess... I mean negative oil futures and all... can you imagine...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #224
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:11pm Apr 21, 2020 3:11pm
Ok definitely not trading until this settles at least a bit... This rolling coaster, to the ground (and beyond) and then back... is more risky than going into a casino and betting all on number 7 ;D Well yeah, there can be a lot of money to be made on this, but not at my current strategy, of this thread, trend-surfing... But we do need trend for that... at least somewhat, estimated... So better to wait now and keep the profits than to overtrade/gamble them away...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #225
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:28pm Apr 21, 2020 4:28pm
Quoting auricforecas
Ok definitely not trading until this settles at least a bit... This rolling coaster, to the ground (and beyond) and then back... is more risky than going into a casino and betting all on number 7 ;D Well yeah, there can be a lot of money to be made on this, but not at my current strategy, of this thread, trend-surfing... But we do need trend for that... at least somewhat, estimated... So better to wait now and keep the profits than to overtrade/gamble them away...
With WTI May future contracts going down $40.76 to minus $22.49 it surely looks like worse than going to the casino Forbes reported that the USO ETF was responsible for the oil price crash in this article:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcoll.../#21bd69a524e8
  • #226
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:43pm Apr 21, 2020 4:43pm
WTI lost 25% of its value today or $4.28. I was totally wrong about $15 being the new support level. The way I see it now support for WTI doesn't exist.
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  • #227
  • Apr 22, 2020 5:27am Apr 22, 2020 5:27am
Quoting Hutch
WTI lost 25% of its value today or $4.28. I was totally wrong about $15 being the new support level. The way I see it now support for WTI doesn't exist. {image}
You are not alone in this, trust me... I fully admit that I didn't see that coming... I would have never believed it a few months ago... I mean we are talking about historic lows!
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #228
  • Apr 22, 2020 4:20pm Apr 22, 2020 4:20pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} You are not alone in this, trust me... I fully admit that I didn't see that coming... I would have never believed it a few months ago... I mean we are talking about historic lows!
These low prices haven't been seen this century President Trump's stating that he will bail out oil companies had an effect since nearly all the US oil firms closed higher today and WTI gained $0.68 or 5%. Gaining 5% after losing 25% the previous day doesn't mean much. It looks like the oil firms' trust in the president's bail out is not that great.
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  • #229
  • Apr 23, 2020 2:32am Apr 23, 2020 2:32am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} These low prices haven't been seen this century President Trump's stating that he will bail out oil companies had an effect since nearly all the US oil firms closed higher today and WTI gained $0.68 or 5%. Gaining 5% after losing 25% the previous day doesn't mean much. It looks like the oil firms' trust in the president's bail out is not that great. {image}
Well and also let's not forget the "SEA Party"... He mentioned "the other thing" also, not just the bailout but also shooting "the oil" out of water
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #230
  • Apr 23, 2020 4:10pm Apr 23, 2020 4:10pm
WTI went up $0.66 or 5% today but it's still a long way to recover the 25% lost on Tuesday. The trading range was 208 points so it was still good for trading
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  • #231
  • Apr 24, 2020 1:29am Apr 24, 2020 1:29am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Well and also let's not forget the "SEA Party"... He mentioned "the other thing" also, not just the bailout but also shooting "the oil" out of water
Bail out the oil companies = production remains the same = oil price down
  • #232
  • Apr 24, 2020 3:28am Apr 24, 2020 3:28am
Quoting Jr123
{quote} Bail out the oil companies = production remains the same = oil price down
Interesting. In the big picture it might not be the best solution, in my book at least, but it seems that will be beyond the term... Also, If bailing out with DEBT that would also increase GDP... So even better news, at least short-term... But the question is what the end-bill will be and who will pay for it... I guess that will the the others guy problem

So.. just when I was looking forward to BUY it.. another swing... I really do not know how to position my WTI trades atm, honestly... I will give it another week max.. and will then decide which trend (if any) to surf on... OR might just skip the market until this mess resolves... Maybe will look into some other ENERGY market, much more stable maybe... https://www.energyexch.com/market Gold/WTI has been crazy
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #233
  • Apr 24, 2020 4:15pm Apr 24, 2020 4:15pm
Lots of trading opportunities today. Although WTI lost only $0.25 from yesterday's close the range from low to high was $1.39 WTI is unlikely to recover soon.
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  • #234
  • Apr 27, 2020 4:07pm Apr 27, 2020 4:07pm
No recovery today WTI went down by $1.71 or 12% but there were many trading opportunities since the range from low to high was $2.28
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  • #235
  • Apr 28, 2020 7:57am Apr 28, 2020 7:57am
No more making money selling WTI short. Oh well ...
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  • #236
  • Apr 28, 2020 10:01am Apr 28, 2020 10:01am
Quoting Hutch
No more making money selling WTI short. Oh well ... {image}
What the hell! Just as I was looking forward to say.. "f. it" and let`s join the crowd... Man... Anyway, will see if others brokers follow... Or they did already?
Maybe I must check the emails So far I do not remember such notice...

But the plan remains, will wait for the next week to see what the horizons will show...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #237
  • Apr 28, 2020 4:24pm Apr 28, 2020 4:24pm
WTI has gone down by $0.13 today did we reach the bottom?
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  • #238
  • Apr 29, 2020 12:31am Apr 29, 2020 12:31am
Quoting Hutch
WTI has gone down by $0.13 today did we reach the bottom? {image}
I do not know man, honestly But I am looking for WTI buy right now, but not for long, like .24 price difference would be enough...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #239
  • Apr 29, 2020 2:09am Apr 29, 2020 2:09am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} I do not know man, honestly But I am looking for WTI buy right now, but not for long, like .24 price difference would be enough...
Took much more price difference (0.54) because it went into a dive before it went up.. But still good overall... Timestamps of entry/exit, here.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #240
  • Apr 29, 2020 4:11pm Apr 29, 2020 4:11pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Took much more price difference (0.54) because it went into a dive before it went up.. But still good overall... Timestamps of entry/exit, here.
WTI up $0.93 or 8% today. Maybe yesterday's bottom of $12 will hold
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