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Gejordan Weekly Journal

  • #961
  • Apr 16, 2020 8:26pm Apr 16, 2020 8:26pm
Quoting gejordan
Let's close out the week. On Sunday, Post 951, I said it was a No Bias week. Which simply means I follow the move until the move changes. I gave some options for swings that would indicate a change in direction and price ended up blowing through all of the swings, so no matter which swing I picked, price told me it was likely to go in a new direction. {image} After the early week trade going in the original direction and grabbing 50 pips, price changed and I went back...
HI G,

Your stop for this trade was below 1.0767 at the bottom of the range?
  • #962
  • Apr 17, 2020 11:27am Apr 17, 2020 11:27am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} HI G, Your stop for this trade was below 1.0767 at the bottom of the range?
Yes, which is why entering a day earlier at the bottom or from the Simple50 were much better.

As an experienced trader, you know you either have to sweat it out or reduce position size so you aren't sweating it if you are wrong.
Be bullish on you.
  • #963
  • Apr 17, 2020 12:02pm Apr 17, 2020 12:02pm
Quoting Rearden
Practice from Post 945. When time permits, Comments welcome. Thank you. {image} {image} {image} {image}
I about missed this post... glad I didn't, way to do the work.

Week of 23rd - Good, had a couple more hits of the Simple 50 after the first one. Your simple50 also was the area of good idea2 entries. Notice to the left of your first #3 arrow how you had some smaller swing lows to gauge risk with.

week of 16th - don't like the long.. why? I don't really consider it a break of the bigger swing high on the 12th. The rest looks good. Took patience that week to get in those shorts. Patience is our word trading like this.

week of 9th - looks good

Week of 2nd - good and notice you have a defined swing to the left of the idea #2 where your idea #3 entry happened that gave this a point from which to set risk if you didn't want it to be all the way down.
Be bullish on you.
  • #964
  • Apr 17, 2020 1:57pm Apr 17, 2020 1:57pm
Here is my last trade of the week. I rarely do these, but I knew i'd be trading today so I did. Placed it before bed... Idea #2 trade with a simple50 entry higher. I closed the simple 50 when I took profit on the idea #2, but price actually ended up going up there. I'd close it now if I had taken it. 42 pips.

The two white lines are the original white line and then another just to show the further movement down and enter on retrace

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 63 KB


Another good week.
Be bullish on you.
  • #965
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:39pm Apr 17, 2020 9:39pm
Thank you very much for the comments G. Very helpful. Also, noted on the position sizing comment.

For me, I put a PO yesterday, but it didn't trigger. the entry order was too high. Now looking back at the chart, I think there was a entry around 1.0870 area with Stop above 1.0916. I could have entered a smaller amount first and then a second one higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 965.JPG Size: 237 KB
  • #966
  • Apr 18, 2020 8:46am Apr 18, 2020 8:46am
Quoting Rearden
Thank you very much for the comments G. Very helpful. Also, noted on the position sizing comment. For me, I put a PO yesterday, but it didn't trigger. the entry order was too high. Now looking back at the chart, I think there was a entry around 1.0870 area with Stop above 1.0916. I could have entered a smaller amount first and then a second one higher. {image}
Looks like you put it where I did. Sometimes they aren't hit. (and me opening a trade on Friday trading like this only happens when I am trying to make a point. I was just showing more entry examples. I usually accomplish what I need before Friday or I am closing out on Friday or I just didn't get a trade for the week).

Keep in mind Rearden, I am showing different trade entry ideas to make the point of there being different ways to decide to enter a trade. WHY I enter a trade is more important than an exact how.

The point that I want those who might read this to get about this type of trading is do what the chart is showing to improve your odds.

Don't get hyper focused on missing trades, where the exact correct place might be, etc., Don't let the desire to be in a trade lead you down the path that leads to bad decisions. (I've said a version of that a few times over the years). Price will change direction and taking a loss will be inevitable. The bigger idea here is to just try and put the odds in my favor.
Be bullish on you.
  • #967
  • Edited 5:41pm Apr 19, 2020 5:27pm | Edited 5:41pm
Posts 945 explains the "ideas". Posts 945 and 951 show how I use the info. Everything in between are these ideas in action. Be daring, do the practice exercise in post 945.

Bias This Week - North. I want to trade up.

White lines are more and less aggressive swings to signal a change in direction. If price moves down first, below the current lows and stays, we'll need to reset those lines.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 63 KB
Be bullish on you.
  • #968
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:03pm Apr 21, 2020 3:03pm
Quoting gejordan
Posts 945 explains the "ideas". Posts 945 and 951 show how I use the info. Everything in between are these ideas in action. Be daring, do the practice exercise in post 945. Bias This Week - North. I want to trade up. White lines are more and less aggressive swings to signal a change in direction. If price moves down first, below the current lows and stays, we'll need to reset those lines. {image}
No signal yet for idea#2 or idea #3. I did an idea #1 from the bottom of the range trading the range. Keep being patient and we'll see if price goes anywhere tonight/tomorrow.
Be bullish on you.
  • #969
  • Edited Apr 22, 2020 6:03am Apr 21, 2020 10:05pm | Edited Apr 22, 2020 6:03am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} No signal yet for idea#2 or idea #3. I did an idea #1 from the bottom of the range trading the range. Keep being patient and we'll see if price goes anywhere tonight/tomorrow.
I was waiting for a Edge to middle( from the bottom of 17th April upswing) trade too. But I missed this as the price was consolidating around the previous lows yesterday just before the huge candle and I thought it may break to the downside.
  • #970
  • Edited 10:58am Apr 22, 2020 10:39am | Edited 10:58am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} I was waiting for a Edge to middle( from the bottom of 17th April upswing) trade too. But I missed this as the price was consolidating around the previous lows yesterday just before the huge candle and I thought it may break to the downside.
Reminder, the one I mentioned was an idea #1 trade, which means you have a signal or system that you might be trading and want to incorporate my market direction ideas. I mentioned it because it would fit my criteria for a very low risk high reward idea #1 trade.

All... be careful with idea #1 trades and don't let them become a green light for overtrading or to go on tilt. It's ok to go a week without a trade if an idea #2 or #3 doesn't happen.

This aside, Rearden, I would encourage you to remember we never know which way it will go, we just want to take our best guess with acceptable risk. If you agree with me that there is value in trading North this week, you take it when it gets down there. If you take a loss, you learn something.

It's down there again right now, here is the difference, I took the first one and grabbed just under 50 pips. If I try and take it now and it doesn't work, I've already covered that trade. You take it now and it doesn't work, you are down and ticked off. I have less pressure to give it a go again, I'm happy, I'm up. You feel more pressure and uncertainty because you missed it last time. That's how we invite the evil trading brain in. Even worse, you don't take it and it goes up again... That's how the real mind meltdown begins.

All I know is that I think there is more value in price going up this week, but it might never go up. Hasn't shown us it wants to yet. BUT, I consistently approach my trading like this week after week, month after month, and year after year. Because of this, my account grows.

Hope this helps and gives you some thoughts.
Be bullish on you.
  • #971
  • Apr 22, 2020 11:17am Apr 22, 2020 11:17am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Reminder, the one I mentioned was an idea #1 trade, which means you have a signal or system that you might be trading and want to incorporate my market direction ideas. I mentioned it because it would fit my criteria for a very low risk high reward idea #1 trade. All... be careful with idea #1 trades and don't let them become a green light for overtrading or to go on tilt. It's ok to go a week without a trade if an idea #2 or #3 doesn't happen. This aside, Rearden, I would encourage you to remember we never know which way it will go, we...

Hi G,

You were spot on with the below sentence

"You feel more pressure and uncertainty because you missed it last time. That's how we invite the evil trading brain in. Even worse, you don't take it and it goes up again... That's how the real mind meltdown begins."

Seeing the price come down, I had all the thoughts you described above and put a BUY PO. Then I came back to the computer and saw the bearish strength compared to bulls and removed the PO.

Now the scenario left is "Even worse, you don't take it and it goes up again...".

When i removed the PO, I had really thought about it and I am ok missing this trade if it goes up again.

Thank you very much for the very insightful post. Its very helpful.

PS: Please ignore the white lines, i was thinking of a possible area for a short if it breaks the low and hold below the current swing and then come back again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #972
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:50am Apr 23, 2020 5:50am
Good morning or whatever wherever you are.

Price has moved lower and stayed lower, so I will adjust down the location of the swing I would need broken to think long. The small box on the left was the last low, the small box on the right actually show some small moves that moved lower and stayed lower and now price has pushed even lower so the big white line is coming down from the beginning of week picture in post 967. It would take some big movement today to allow for a long idea #2 or #3 trade this week.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 53 KB
Be bullish on you.
  • #973
  • Apr 24, 2020 12:08am Apr 24, 2020 12:08am
Even though the weekly Bias is bullish there was a Idea#3 type trade to the short side. I didnt take it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #974
  • Apr 24, 2020 5:12pm Apr 24, 2020 5:12pm
Here is an Idea #2 and/or Idea #3 entry for today as price finally moved above and stayed above the last swing (aggressive) signaling time to try long, I placed an entry at the pivot/simple50 area. Unfortunately it did all of this at about the last moment it could for the week. The push down created a new swing at the white line. More conservative view of swing would have been higher and no long signal.

Would have to be an active trader to take this, those looking to trade around a job wouldn't have had this and no big deal if you didn't. As I mentioned, I don't usually take these and did so here just to show more examples to study.

Be back next week for more. 20 pips on idea #2 and #3 trades for the week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 49 KB
Be bullish on you.
  • #975
  • Apr 24, 2020 6:19pm Apr 24, 2020 6:19pm
Quoting Rearden
Even though the weekly Bias is bullish there was a Idea#3 type trade to the short side. I didnt take it. {image}
Yes, a most excellent location for a short if you wanted to keep following the previous week's move until it exhausted. Or if you had a short bias for the week. Shorts from consolidation top to start the week and short idea #2/3 later in week.

But, make sure to train your brain in the truth... go back to March 29... I wanted to be long the week before, then that week I wanted to go down. Imagine taking the Simple 50 long out of the gate on the 29th... what happened? Stopped Out.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 49 KB
Be bullish on you.
  • #976
  • Apr 26, 2020 5:09pm Apr 26, 2020 5:09pm
Bias this week - UP. I will go long when possible.
Post 945 and 951 to see what that means. Other posts between there and here to practice it and see it in action.

A more aggressive swing has already been broken for longs, a more conservative swing is a bit higher. I'll leave it at that so you can practice finding them.
Be bullish on you.
  • #977
  • Apr 26, 2020 6:58pm Apr 26, 2020 6:58pm
Quoting gejordan
Bias this week - UP. I will go long when possible. Post 945 and 951 to see what that means. Other posts between there and here to practice it and see it in action. A more aggressive swing has already been broken for longs, a more conservative swing is a bit higher. I'll leave it at that so you can practice finding them.
Thanks G.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #978
  • Apr 28, 2020 6:13am Apr 28, 2020 6:13am
Quoting gejordan
Bias this week - UP. I will go long when possible. Post 945 and 951 to see what that means. Other posts between there and here to practice it and see it in action. A more aggressive swing has already been broken for longs, a more conservative swing is a bit higher. I'll leave it at that so you can practice finding them.
Idea #1, #2, and #3 all finding 50-70 pip movement this morning.
Be bullish on you.
  • #979
  • Apr 28, 2020 7:20am Apr 28, 2020 7:20am
Here is the pic. Price already took out the aggressive swing (showed by Rearden post 977) to start the week. You can see I put in an entry around the area I did the small trade on Friday (didn't make it back down there). Price then pushed and took out the conservative swing (again post 977) and stayed above the price for a few hours. Then it retraced down to the pivot area for an idea #2 and also hit the simple50 for an idea #3. Looks like I entered below simple50, but this is where the simple50 was when I stopped watching charts. Did all of this while I did other things... With a plan I had in place Sunday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 57 KB


Idea #2 - 50ish pips
Idea #3 - 70ish pips

Puts me at 700-ish pips for April doing these (or something like that). The volatility is key. Might be 100 in less volatility. Includes a 20 pip week last week(not counting my idea #1). Didn't let the 20 pip week make me mad and do stupid things to "make up for it"... take what the chart gives me by doing what it is telling me.
Be bullish on you.
  • #980
  • Apr 28, 2020 9:28am Apr 28, 2020 9:28am
great trades. I put a Pending order today right after the 1000 am candle (I was expecting a retrace) . It didnt trigger.
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