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The Fibonacci channel projections (FCP)

  • #641
  • Edited 7:58am Apr 26, 2020 2:44am | Edited 7:58am
Quoting tiestobob
{quote} Do you move your fibo grid from the break of the TL to the actual entry point or does it always stay at the break of the TL no matter what? I guess if it returns to 1.000 that answers my question but what about trigger 2?
assuming you got the correct point 1 and 2, fib 100 remains at the intersection of trend line and candle body closing above/below it.
trade entries will be price reactions at fib 100 and 78.2/75.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #642
  • Apr 26, 2020 9:28am Apr 26, 2020 9:28am
Quoting tiestobob
{quote} yes, it must be very very naive and stupid, so much that you even know it!
so i can see how the hieght of channel is used but i can not tell how to choose the parallel channel distances
  • #643
  • Edited 12:41pm Apr 26, 2020 12:12pm | Edited 12:41pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} assuming you got the correct point 1 and 2, fib 100 remains at the intersection of trend line and candle body closing above/below it. trade entries will be price reactions at fib 100 and 78.2/75.
Beautiful thanks for the clarification. And for reactions we look for candlestick patterns at these levels 100 & 75-78.6. What kind of experience did you gather from your entry points so far?

What is wrong with this setup? I mean, is it just a loss one or did some of the conditions not meet?

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  • #644
  • Edited 1:54pm Apr 26, 2020 12:48pm | Edited 1:54pm
Quoting tiestobob
{quote} Beautiful thanks for the clarification. And for reactions we look for candlestick patterns at these levels 100 & 75-78.6. What kind of experience did you gather from your entry points so far?
go to seysin's profile and click images. you will see how he entered trades (circled) at the 2 locations after a good closed candle (pin bar, engulf, etc)
as for me i do enter trades without candle closing or go to the m1 chart, as long as we are trading in the htf direction.

there was not enough information on the chart for a decision.
1. what was the higher time frame saying? higher high higher low?
2. based solely on the given chart, price was breaking out of a range. wait for retrace to buy at arrow. the 2nd, 3rd, 4th arrow if you arrived late at the computer.
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  • #645
  • Apr 26, 2020 2:07pm Apr 26, 2020 2:07pm
Quoting jamesbond00
{quote} so i can see how the hieght of channel is used but i can not tell how to choose the parallel channel distances
on choosing channel width.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post12897309
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #646
  • Apr 26, 2020 9:11pm Apr 26, 2020 9:11pm
this happened just now in GBPUSD . there was two thing i was unable to do .
1. i can not draw the channel so that means i am unable to have the width
2. the projection that we take is that a fibonacci retracement ?
3. also the channel is finonacci channel ?
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  • #647
  • Edited 11:26pm Apr 26, 2020 11:09pm | Edited 11:26pm
Quoting jamesbond00
this happened just now in GBPUSD . there was two thing i was unable to do . 1. i can not draw the channel so that means i am unable to have the width 2. the projection that we take is that a fibonacci retracement ? yes 3. also the channel is finonacci channel ? yes{image}
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12869181

use the h1 chart first to see direction, then use your own m5 chart to draw a new channel after the break out candle close of h1 chart.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #648
  • Edited 12:51am Apr 27, 2020 12:31am | Edited 12:51am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12869181 use the h1 chart first to see direction, then use your own m5 chart to draw a new channel after the break out candle close of h1 chart. {image} {image}
the previous h1 fib projection was drawn upside down.
now h1 fib projection both targets reached.

m5 trading would have lesser profits, but there were 2 trade opportunities.
the 2nd channel can be built at the white downward sloping line. all targets reached.
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  • #649
  • Apr 27, 2020 2:04am Apr 27, 2020 2:04am
Hi friends.
Gold M5 and waiting on EJ M15.
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  • #650
  • Apr 27, 2020 2:25am Apr 27, 2020 2:25am
ea. london open.
break down of previous day's range.
note big round number 1.68.
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  • #651
  • Apr 27, 2020 3:57am Apr 27, 2020 3:57am
london session.
gbp weakest in shorter time frame.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #652
  • Apr 27, 2020 7:10am Apr 27, 2020 7:10am
slow start for monday with news being non existent.
many pairs are in range with some in triangle situation.

new york session.
aud strong.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #653
  • Apr 27, 2020 8:17am Apr 27, 2020 8:17am
Quoting Inthebox
ea. london open. break down of previous day's range. note big round number 1.68. {image}
ea.
confluence of today's high low fib 23.8 and resistance with hidden divergence.
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  • #654
  • Apr 27, 2020 8:32am Apr 27, 2020 8:32am
Quoting Inthebox
new york session. aud strong. {image}
ga hidden divergence.
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #655
  • Apr 27, 2020 9:21am Apr 27, 2020 9:21am
Hello everyone!
XAU/USD Fresh example.
The model has movement potential.
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  • #656
  • Apr 27, 2020 9:35am Apr 27, 2020 9:35am
Quoting jamesbond00
this happened just now in GBPUSD . there was two thing i was unable to do . 1. i can not draw the channel so that means i am unable to have the width 2. the projection that we take is that a fibonacci retracement ? 3. also the channel is finonacci channel ?{image}
1 ) If your chart does not have the channel tool, you can use the trendline. You have already identified points 1 and 2 that define the TL. You are looking for point 3. In your case, it is the highest point above TL and also above the dotted resistance line. Measure from point 3 straight down to the intersection with TL. You will use this measure to draw your fibonacci retracement. 2) Yes, on my system it is called a fibonacci retracement. Some chart software may call it a different name.

When you draw the fib, make sure that 1.0 is intersecting with the place on TL where the breakout occurs. 0.0 is the measured distance below the TL (on your chart).

3) I don't have the fib channel tool on my charts, I only have the top and bottom channel lines. If I need a mid-point, I just draw it with a trendline tool.

If you watch Seysin32's videos, you will see that he draws a fibonacci retracement from point 3 down to the TL, inside the channel. Then, he moves the fib over to where the 1.0 lines is at the breakout. If you can do that on your chart, you won't need to measure from 3 to TL.
  • #657
  • Apr 27, 2020 2:18pm Apr 27, 2020 2:18pm
Friends, I changed the Fibo levels a bit. Take a look at the screenshot.
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As you can see, I added levels 0.236, 1.146, 1.382, 1.500 and 1.618. I will explain the meaning of the changes. Lines 1.146 - 1.618 allow us to see the reaction of prices to these levels before the price exits the channel. The rule is that if the price accurately responds to these levels, there is a high probability (but of course, this is not a guarantee) that it will also respond to other projection lines after exiting the channel. See how it works on the chart:
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Levels 1.146 and 0.236 are also members of the Fibo number sequence and are located behind TP1 and TP2. How it works. If the price has precisely reached the level of 0.236 instead of 0.382 (TP1), the probability that the price will reach the level of 1.146 instead of 0.000 (TP2) increases. It just means a shift in TP levels.
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These changes are not critical, you can use the levels that you use in your terminal and which work well for you. The main thing is that Trigger levels 1(2), TP1(2) remain unchanged.
  • #658
  • Apr 27, 2020 4:06pm Apr 27, 2020 4:06pm
I had just returned from my work. In the morning I was open another sell with SL ... and now I see TP2 hit.
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  • #659
  • Apr 27, 2020 4:36pm Apr 27, 2020 4:36pm
Interesting,
Thanks a lot for taking time and sharing your strategy.
What is the successful rate of this? From 10 trades how many would end up winners?
  • #660
  • Apr 27, 2020 10:14pm Apr 27, 2020 10:14pm
Quoting taksistalo
Interesting, Thanks a lot for taking time and sharing your strategy. What is the successful rate of this? From 10 trades how many would end up winners?
actually success rate is irrelevant.
because for expert it can be above 80%, to novice it can be 30%.
or put it in another way.
out of 100 people, how many will put through trades exactly like seysin?
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
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