2020 - US$ to weaken, Pound Sterling & Euro to strengthen | Forex Factory

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2020 - US$ to weaken, Pound Sterling & Euro to strengthen

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 29, 2019 5:29am Dec 29, 2019 5:29am
My take on it going forward. How quickly these levels will be reached I cannot say, but the technical direction looks very sound to me. What does look highly likely is that we will continue to see accelerating dollar weakness against all major currencies.

May 2020 be a fantastic year's trading for all of us. and remember, that perseverance, patience and belief always pay off in the end.

Happy New Year!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: cable 2 week.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USD (DFB).png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY (DFB).png Size: 61 KB
  • #2
  • Dec 29, 2019 7:46am Dec 29, 2019 7:46am
Quoting cat
What does look highly likely is that we will continue to see accelerating dollar weakness against all major currencies. ..
What makes the dollar "highly likely" continue to accelerate weakness? 3 reasons would be great!
  • #3
  • Dec 29, 2019 8:23am Dec 29, 2019 8:23am
Quoting DojiSan
{quote} What makes the dollar "highly likely" continue to accelerate weakness? 3 reasons would be great!
Let me turn that back on you. What reasons do you have, if any, for thinking that the $ will be higher this time next year than it is now, bearing in mind that the dollar index peaked in Jan 2017, and despite rallying strongly in 2018 and less well in 2019, looks technically like it is now falling away from just below its 76.4% retrace. As for fundamental reasons, there are numerous opinions arguing from both sides, bullish and bearish for the dollar in 2020, and any internet search will give you any number of these. My analysis is on purely technical grounds, from my own experience, a far more reliable source than attempting to predict macro-economic policy/economic climate, with regard to the markets, because the markets are a visible reflection of these which is why they can be traded.
  • #4
  • Dec 29, 2019 9:03am Dec 29, 2019 9:03am
perfectly analyze
  • #5
  • Dec 29, 2019 11:17am Dec 29, 2019 11:17am
Quick reference back to the charts I posted above. They are all bi-weekly as you can see. The USD/JPY is interesting, as it shows a very nice potentially bearish moving average convergence pattern, with the 200sma beneath narrowing into the 100sma above. You'll notice how for all of 2019, these two moving averages have been acting as support and resistance, but as they are pulled closer together by the price action, the tendency is for the price to fall away once the 200sma below can no longer support the price. As the price falls, the smaller moving average, here being the 100sma, will be pulled beneath the larger one, and once the 200sma gets above the price, that will be an extremely bearish configuration.

Of course, these are long term time frames, so there well may be another upturn, but looking further forward, 2020 is definitely shaping up into being a potentially very bad year for the strength of the US Dollar, and I say potentially, because nothing is ever certain in this game, as we all know.
  • #6
  • Dec 29, 2019 6:42pm Dec 29, 2019 6:42pm
Quoting cat
.. but looking further forward, 2020 is definitely shaping up into being a potentially very bad year for the strength of the US Dollar...
Can you give some other reasons why you think that the dollar "is definitely shaping up into being a potentially very bad year" besides the moving average cross over? I would like to short it, but I need more convincing
  • #7
  • Dec 29, 2019 8:22pm Dec 29, 2019 8:22pm
Trump I think has been bullish for USD and I think he's highly likely to win 2020 ….. Can't see the Euro showing any real strength if Brexit goes ahead , this will also mean more risk of other states leaving and even more uncertainty for the Euro zone .
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #8
  • Dec 30, 2019 1:48am Dec 30, 2019 1:48am
Quoting headfake
Trump I think has been bullish for USD and I think he's highly likely to win 2020 ….. Can't see the Euro showing any real strength if Brexit goes ahead , this will also mean more risk of other states leaving and even more uncertainty for the Euro zone .
Forget about trump...Mr Bloomberg said he will do everything to prevent Trump from winning, even he has to spend all of his fortune.

He knows a fall in stocks & us dollar will make Trump look like an idiot. So lets see
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #9
  • Dec 30, 2019 3:14am Dec 30, 2019 3:14am
Quoting cat
{quote} Let me turn that back on you. What reasons do you have, if any, for thinking that the $ will be higher this time next year than it is now, bearing in mind that the dollar index peaked in Jan 2017, and despite rallying strongly in 2018 and less well in 2019, looks technically like it is now falling away from just below its 76.4% retrace. As for fundamental reasons, there are numerous opinions arguing from both sides, bullish and bearish for the dollar in 2020, and any internet search will give you any number of these. My analysis is on purely...
Fair enough to ask the question.
Let me see.. 3 reasons.

1. Flow of funds dictated by interest rate... flow to value (income ROI, Carry Trade)
2. Largest economies will always be last to fall. (Can the world afford a peg collapse). US and China economies are in twinned.
3. Human nature always push's the boundaries way too far... just look at the new highs being reached in equities... Dollar has yet to break highs set in Feb 85
Im not thinking Fibonacci was thinking about how mad the future was going to get... lol...

While Im open to change my view, I would like to see the FED to drop rates by 0.5% on each meeting for next few quarters.. Either way nothing tells me 2020 is soft dollar... but it is Dec 30th 2019..

Stay safe and open... to change when it occurs, we are all here for the profit. I don't trade position, so will be trading both directions as my method dictates, without any of the above effecting these entries.
Happy New Year to All..
  • #10
  • Dec 30, 2019 4:12am Dec 30, 2019 4:12am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Forget about trump...Mr Bloomberg said he will do everything to prevent Trump from winning, even he has to spend all of his fortune. He knows a fall in stocks & us dollar will make Trump look like an idiot. So lets see
I don't really care or get emotionally attached to politician's or parties , the democrats have shot themselves in both feet as far as the public are concerned ….but it's all theatre anyway … being an impartial observer allows one to be more objective with events rather than engaging in delusional thinking …
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #11
  • Dec 30, 2019 2:08pm Dec 30, 2019 2:08pm
Quoting DojiSan
{quote} Can you give some other reasons why you think that the dollar "is definitely shaping up into being a potentially very bad year" besides the moving average cross over? I would like to short it, but I need more convincing
Too many people want to find the holy grail which just isn't possible.
Cat has shared he’s own view, which on a technical level I have something very similar. People need to find their own way , so many ways to skin a cat, excuse the pun.
  • #12
  • Dec 30, 2019 4:38pm Dec 30, 2019 4:38pm
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Technically I would tend to view the strong rally after 2014 as extremely bullish and would normally expect another move higher of similar length (after a decent correction) . We've had the correction which finished at the beginning of 2018 and so expectation should be higher prices . Let's see and happy hunting .
Never said I was Batman,all I'm saying is you'll never see us together.
  • #13
  • Dec 30, 2019 7:56pm Dec 30, 2019 7:56pm
Quoting DojiSan
I would like to short it, but I need more convincing
//------

hey dojisan...... now you have me curious..... if you have the time, why would you like to short the the dollar..... thanks......h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #14
  • Dec 30, 2019 8:13pm Dec 30, 2019 8:13pm
simple view. usd ranging in 2019 and will be falling for most of 2020 coming out of range
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #15
  • Jan 2, 2020 3:23am Jan 2, 2020 3:23am
Hello everyone.

I would like to add a bit of fundamentals. I believe that we are late in the business cycle which means that we are slowly approaching a point of correction. Call it recession if you want, but it's gonna happen. When that happens, FED will cut rates to stimulate the economy. Possibly even start QE. That would push Dollar lower against other pairs.

I also believe that (historically talking) current price is relatively high. I would not buy dollar from long term point of view. Seems better to sell it at current price.

Happy new year folks!
  • #16
  • Jan 9, 2020 9:49am Jan 9, 2020 9:49am
Daily $ index chart showing my potential scenario going forward within the next week or so. Momentum is down overall, so I see this current up move as a pullback before the price turns south to make new lows.
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  • #17
  • Apr 26, 2020 10:01am Apr 26, 2020 10:01am
From today's situation, all forecasts have acquired a fundamentally different direction. And all the virus that has changed the situation around the world in a cardinal way. Now many assets have found themselves in a rather difficult situation, because many companies have temporarily suspended their activities, and this of course adversely affects the value of their shares.In addition, the value of the currency is not the last thing that matters now. According to my observations, only world currencies are becoming more expensive now, and everyone else is losing value quite rapidly. And this is already noticeable in the market, noticeable on every chart. On the one hand, now is the golden time for every trader, because the market gives excellent prospects. On the other hand, this situation is a little frightening, it is not quite clear what will happen next, people are worried, I think that the economic crisis in its next manifestation is not far off...
  • #18
  • Jan 19, 2021 12:44pm Jan 19, 2021 12:44pm
So, more than a year on, how did my 2020 forecasts posted on the first page of this thread for the dollar index; GBP/USD; EU; and USD/JPY pan out?

At the end of 2019, No one saw the virus hitting the markets the way it did, so that explains the big spikes we saw in March, but overall, I think I at least got the general direction right.

Let's have a look....in the original order they were posted -

Dollar index
Cable
USD/EUR
USD/JPY
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  • #19
  • Jan 19, 2021 1:22pm Jan 19, 2021 1:22pm
Quoting cat
So, more than a year on, how did my 2020 forecasts posted on the first page of this thread for the dollar index; GBP/USD; EU; and USD/JPY pan out? At the end of 2019, No one saw the virus hitting the markets the way it did, so that explains the big spikes we saw in March, but overall, I think I at least got the general direction right. Let's have a look....in the original order they were posted - Dollar index Cable USD/EUR USD/JPY {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hi,

really nice and good prediction.

Would you like to share 'your view' for 2021?

Best
Chriss
  • #20
  • Jan 19, 2021 3:54pm Jan 19, 2021 3:54pm
Quoting chrissfx
{quote} Hi, really nice and good prediction. Would you like to share 'your view' for 2021? Best Chriss
I'll try and post something this week. Basically though, I'm bullish on pound sterling and bearish on the US dollar. Anything in particular you would like me to have a look at?
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