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The Fibonacci channel projections (FCP)

  • #601
  • Apr 24, 2020 1:34am Apr 24, 2020 1:34am
gj m5
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #602
  • Apr 24, 2020 1:58am Apr 24, 2020 1:58am
Quoting 47someone
{quote} Hi Seysin, on this picture on Chart one you highlighted the part where the bar breaks the trend line but then goes back into the trend line and closes under. In the video you posted earlier you edited the trend line to the new peak when that same event occured. However on this chart you dont. What is the difference and when should I edit the trend line?
Hello. We rebuild the trend line whenever the price makes a new min/max. I deleted this image. It is controversial.
Follow the general rules. Later I will give comments on this teme.
  • #603
  • Apr 24, 2020 2:52am Apr 24, 2020 2:52am
You are right I made that mistake..
how about this one ?
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  • #604
  • Apr 24, 2020 3:23am Apr 24, 2020 3:23am
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} i think the main issue here is the expectation of target. your channel width is more than 100 pips. personally day trading for a m5/15 entry, we don't frequently get more than 100 pips profit. in my chart i lessen the channel width by placing point 3 at the outer channel providing around 60 pips or less target. i would shift the channel from your position to mine when A exceeded the previous high and B did not go lower than previous low. then there was a strong candle break down which gave me a better entry. then C and D formed but i did...
Thanks InTheBox, might be the channel width is too wide could be a problem, considering the low TF i use to trade. i will note your idea next trade

  • #605
  • Apr 24, 2020 3:27am Apr 24, 2020 3:27am
Quoting Seysin32
{quote} In addition to what Inthebox said above: {image} {image} {image}
Hi Seysin,

I put my SL to BE once my TP1 reach, and usually I take my profit either 1/3 or 1/2 of it. but on that trade, the price not even reach TP1 but to my SL first. as InTheBox said maybe in low TF it is better to make the channel < 60 pips

cheers
  • #606
  • Apr 24, 2020 3:54am Apr 24, 2020 3:54am
Quoting hoichoi
You are right I made that mistake.. how about this one ? {image}
imagine that you come to the computer at the red vertical line.
where is the high point immediately before the red vertical line? isn't point 1 the right yellow arrow?
then from that high point 1 put on a trend line to touch all the other high points to find your point 2.
get a straight line with only point 1 and 2 touching with no other points touching before point 2 and in between point 1 and 2.
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Attached Image
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #607
  • Apr 24, 2020 4:05am Apr 24, 2020 4:05am
Quoting GoldBean
{quote} Hi Seysin, I put my SL to BE once my TP1 reach, and usually I take my profit either 1/3 or 1/2 of it. but on that trade, the price not even reach TP1 but to my SL first. as InTheBox said maybe in low TF it is better to make the channel < 60 pips cheers
Hello. On each of the two charts, the price reached TP before it went higher. You did not have to lose. The maximum lose = BE.
  • #608
  • Apr 24, 2020 4:47am Apr 24, 2020 4:47am
My EU m5 buy and reached TP1. Waiting for pull back and go again.
Thanks Seysin32, IntheBox and others sharing and input. I am still learning from mistake LOL.
Anyway, GL to all.
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Liberate Hong Kong, The Revolution Of Our Times
  • #609
  • Apr 24, 2020 5:09am Apr 24, 2020 5:09am
Hi All

@Seysin, @InTheBox, Thank you for your comments.

H1 Downtrend. Image 1



M15 Downtrend.

1. Find the last Lowest High (or bottom preceding the last maximum peak).
2. "Draw a beam from this point to the left. - The first bottom that touches line the will be the second point. You got our trend line"

is this correct? Yes/No.

Comment is always welcome for these first two steps.
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You can do it!
  • #610
  • Apr 24, 2020 5:15am Apr 24, 2020 5:15am
Quoting Kampion
Hi All @Seysin, @InTheBox, Thank you for your comments. H1 Downtrend. Image 1 M15 Downtrend. 1. Find the last Lowest High (or bottom preceding the last maximum peak). 2. "Draw a beam from this point to the left. - The first bottom that touches line the will be the second point. You got our trend line" is this correct? Yes/No. Comment is always welcome for these first two steps. {image} {image}
Hello, friend.
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  • #611
  • Apr 24, 2020 5:35am Apr 24, 2020 5:35am
Quoting Trader613
Hello everyone, excuse me to just pop by like this, I just saw this very interesting concept and thought for those of you interested in further Fibonacci studies, please visit this FF thread: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=234853 I hope it comes in useful. (I've been using Fibos for years, and in my opinion it's the best tool out there, coupled with PA, channels and good MM). Best wishes everyone!
Thank you, it will be useful for many.
  • #612
  • Apr 24, 2020 5:42am Apr 24, 2020 5:42am
Hi Seysin, am I drawing the Fibo channel and Fibo levels correctly?
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Trading is not easy
  • #613
  • Apr 24, 2020 5:51am Apr 24, 2020 5:51am
Quoting xiaotiao
Hi Seysin, am I drawing the Fibo channel and Fibo levels correctly? {image}
Hello. Wrong. Refer to post 1. The price continues to go down. Wait for TL break. Rebuild the channel with a new low.
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  • #614
  • Apr 24, 2020 7:43am Apr 24, 2020 7:43am
Quoting Seysin32
{quote} Hello, friend. {image}
Hi Seysin32

I really appreciate your efforts . I am hoping someday you'll allow me to make a difference as you have to me.

i still dont understand the subjectivity of drawing the trendline. The Rule's say that we should find the last Highest Low (or bottom preceding the last maximum peak). On the contrary to an uptrend, we should find the last Lowest High (or Top preceding the last minimum peak) i assume.

From the image you've recently shared, in a downtrend , isnt that the Highest peak? Point 2 circled by you looks like a High to me.
Please understand i am trying to develop a trendline approach similar to yours so i can make correct observations going forward. i dont care if i lose a trade or 2 as long as i dont blow my account because of misinterpretation.

Thanks again for your efforts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD15(2).JPG Size: 156 KB
You can do it!
  • #615
  • Apr 24, 2020 8:19am Apr 24, 2020 8:19am
I took a sell on EURUSD 5 Minute.

In 1 Hour chart, Point 1 and 2 is established and that there'll be a pullback and a TL break to the upside.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

Thank you.
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  • #616
  • Apr 24, 2020 8:22am Apr 24, 2020 8:22am
Quoting Seysin32
{quote} Hello. Wrong. Refer to post 1. The price continues to go down. Wait for TL break. Rebuild the channel with a new low. {image}
Hi, Seysin. Thanks for the explanation. Here I attach another chart, and some questions are on the chart. Please advise whether am I correct or not. Thanks in advance.
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Trading is not easy
  • #617
  • Apr 24, 2020 8:37am Apr 24, 2020 8:37am
Quoting Kampion
{quote} Hi Seysin32 I really appreciate your efforts . I am hoping someday you'll allow me to make a difference as you have to me. i still dont understand the subjectivity of drawing the trendline. The Rule's say that we should find the last Highest Low (or bottom preceding the last maximum peak). On the contrary to an uptrend, we should find the last Lowest High (or Top preceding the last minimum peak) i assume. From the image you've recently shared, in a downtrend , isnt that the Highest peak? Point 2 circled by you looks like a High to me. Please...
Point 1 I marked the last local maximum preceding the minimum. From this point I drew a line to the left until the first touch with the shadow of the candle, this is point 2 (from point 1 to point 2 of the TL should not be crossed by candles).
  • #618
  • Apr 24, 2020 8:43am Apr 24, 2020 8:43am
Quoting GPipz
I took a sell on EURUSD 5 Minute. In 1 Hour chart, Point 1 and 2 is established and that there'll be a pullback and a TL break to the upside. Correct me if I'm wrong. Thank you. {image} {image}
There are no swings on H1 in your channel, it's just a continuous upward movement. However, there may be a model on the m5, but watch carefully for the trigger levels and the signal candle. While everything is going up, it may take time, do not rush and do not forget that today is Friday.
  • #619
  • Apr 24, 2020 8:49am Apr 24, 2020 8:49am
Quoting Kampion
{quote} From the image you've recently shared, in a downtrend , isnt that the Highest peak? Point 2 circled by you looks like a High to me. Please understand i am trying to develop a trendline approach similar to yours so i can make correct observations going forward. i dont care if i lose a trade or 2 as long as i dont blow my account because of misinterpretation. Thanks again for your efforts. {image}
if i may give a different perspective.
post 1: "On the example of uptrend.
Find the last Highest Low (or bottom preceding the last maximum peak)."

so in a downtrend, we find the last lowest high preceding (just before or immediately before) the last bottom.
this is the circled point 1 in the chart.
then find point 2. the trend line from circled point 1 to circled point 2 should not be touched by any candle or its tail.
Attached Image
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #620
  • Apr 24, 2020 8:53am Apr 24, 2020 8:53am
Quoting xiaotiao
{quote} Hi, Seysin. Thanks for the explanation. Here I attach another chart, and some questions are on the chart. Please advise whether am I correct or not. Thanks in advance. {image}
We never enter as soon as the price crosses the TL (there are exceptions to this rule). We expect the price to return to the level of 1.000 (Trigger 1) or to the level of 0.750-0.786 (Trigger 2). At these levels, we expect a signal candle. This issue has already been discussed in detail, links are collected in post 1.
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