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  • #7,701
  • Apr 23, 2020 3:20am Apr 23, 2020 3:20am
Quoting ytong
{quote} see https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...7#post12889937 Your broker switched quotation to Dec futures. You should see some $30. Others (Jun futures quotation) see $15. I (Jul futures - my broker just switched yesterday/today) see $22. The difference between future series is called contango and we have no possibility to exploit it, when trading CFD. So graphs will look completely different and price actions also will be different.
the problem is the price isnt anything like dec. im seeing 8usd.
  • #7,702
  • Apr 23, 2020 3:36am Apr 23, 2020 3:36am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} We have been talking about seasonality in the past months, that is why it was even more puzzling... It seems the corona was/is the main factor, no other reason. There were now quite radical news (yesterday)... about bailing out + shooting "out of the water" etc... So if the price doesn't start to climb now, I might switch to other ENERGY market to trade.... Because yes, seasonality + maybe some more positive news about corona (if it will stick) + cuts + bailing/shooting etc etc... should indicate UP-trend (at last).. or I might just choose...

yes i have some charts that would explain easy the situation but it's copyright so can't share them.
but that's the idea just like you said.

now all eyes are in Cushin, how much they can store.
i also have some tankers that are killing in this time. i was looking into what happens if they cannot unload. who supports the penalties.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #7,703
  • Apr 23, 2020 4:53am Apr 23, 2020 4:53am
Oil prices to go back negative again maybe on the 29th of April.
  • #7,704
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:03am Apr 23, 2020 5:03am
As I said it will not be down more plan as sellers are trapped in the selling of crude june contracts data from cme thank you
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  • #7,705
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:07am Apr 23, 2020 5:07am
Lots of upside levels

can we go to the highest one ?

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #7,706
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:10am Apr 23, 2020 5:10am
Quoting mga35
Oil prices to go back negative again maybe on the 29th of April.
from a trading perspective. most of the negative price is because of speculation
having way more position on futures than actual delivery's

mean time IBKR had 88 mil loss because after blowing accounts they had to put down the loss.

from that point most of the brokers made it harder to trade oil on futures, req more margin and bigger cost.
imo they will get down accounts that speculates because of having to much to pay. same thing happen on cfd's or etf's

so while demand is still not there. betting on another negative price it's risky. but CME did open the possibility to have strike on options going negative so .. we will see.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #7,707
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:20am Apr 23, 2020 5:20am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} from a trading perspective. most of the negative price is because of speculation having way more position on futures than actual delivery's mean time IBKR had 88 mil loss because after blowing accounts they had to put down the loss. from that point most of the brokers made it harder to trade oil on futures, req more margin and bigger cost. imo they will get down accounts that speculates because of having to much to pay. same thing happen on cfd's or etf's so while demand is still not there. betting on another negative price it's risky....
That's why picking the right broker is most important. I prefer paying bigger spread, no leverage, than paying no fees and having this kind of issues.

oanda won't go negative
fxcm said they'll close all trade if oil cfd trade at 3 dollars.
Some said it will go negative
Some other are rolling their cfd way before schedule to avoid the volatily of the nearest expiry
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #7,708
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:21am Apr 23, 2020 5:21am
Quoting kuroro001
Lots of upside levels can we go to the highest one ? {image}
Crude 16.17 $ break out point
First target 19.82 $
Second target 25.73 $
Good day
  • #7,709
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:28am Apr 23, 2020 5:28am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} That's why picking the right broker is most important. I prefer paying bigger spread, no leverage, than paying no fees and having this kind of issues. oanda won't go negative fxcm said they'll close all trade if oil cfd trade at 3 dollars. Some said it will go negative Some other are rolling their cfd way before schedule to avoid the volatily of the nearest expiry
yes but all brokers you were saying are trading cfd's not futures contract.
on futures contract if you are left with the position (may for examples) and you do not roll to June you are expecting the delivery so while this was extraordinary i bet there are hundreds of brokers that have loss but we don't know ibkr has to report since it is the last independent listed brk.,

so you can do that trading cfd, and etf.

but that's impossible on futures since it's pretty understandable to have this go negative. same thing will happen if we see Cushin full. tankers full. and by that time you either throw oil or burn it . and that's a cost also.

i am just saying a big chunk of speculators are out now that requirements are higher. or maybe not if you look into USO you had record inflows of money. if you look into fin-tweet you see hundreds of people buying into USO even if that thing has no value anymore.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #7,710
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:34am Apr 23, 2020 5:34am
23 April 2020



Looking at where price is and past PA over past couple of hours, looking to get in long and look for the 15USD handle going forward...
Lets see if the Stoch and RSI dip will provide an opportunity to go long...




Green Pips
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  • #7,711
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:40am Apr 23, 2020 5:40am
Bought @16.80 USD
moving SL to 18USD
TP @ 30USD


Do you guys think it will drop again? Not much positive news besides promised drop in proudction from OPEC starting 1st May.
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  • #7,712
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:48am Apr 23, 2020 5:48am
Source: Amena Bakr Tweet

"Kuwait has already started cutting oil supply - oil minister"
  • #7,713
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:48am Apr 23, 2020 5:48am
Quoting mario83
Bought @16.80 USD moving SL to 18USD TP @ 30USD Do you guys think it will drop again? Not much positive news besides promised drop in proudction from OPEC starting 1st May. {image}
Everything is possible so keep raising that SL. In these market conditions you have to trade like a pirate.

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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #7,714
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:49am Apr 23, 2020 5:49am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} yes but all brokers you were saying are trading cfd's not futures contract. on futures contract if you are left with the position (may for examples) and you do not roll to June you are expecting the delivery so while this was extraordinary i bet there are hundreds of brokers that have loss but we don't know ibkr has to report since it is the last independent listed brk., so you can do that trading cfd, and etf. but that's impossible on futures since it's pretty understandable to have this go negative. same thing will happen if we see Cushin...
Yes true about cfd even though there are cfd with expiry as well

Regarding the future, its mostly because of physical delivery? or cash delivery as well?

USO hasn't any value, but once oil goes back up, no doubt all the energy industry will rise
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #7,715
  • Apr 23, 2020 6:00am Apr 23, 2020 6:00am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Everything is possible so keep raising that SL. In these market conditions you have to trade like a pirate. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lE07p-EIBns
That's a great summary Thanks.
I cut the long positions i was holding between 30-25USD. Took significant lost and feel damaged. Now i need to get it back slowly and moving SL gradually once the price raise.

Good luck all!


PS: I'm posting DailyFX chart, since my broker did rollover on 21st and changed the price to new contract. Difference between real price and broker price is almost 4USD. I guess its MM although there are no claims to keep it inside. ALso swap / rollover hasnt had impact on the cost of the position what made me realize i did mistake closing the positions. My other broker keeps adding swaps and is much more transparent.
  • #7,716
  • Apr 23, 2020 6:09am Apr 23, 2020 6:09am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Yes true about cfd even though there are cfd with expiry as well Regarding the future, its mostly because of physical delivery? or cash delivery as well? USO hasn't any value, but once oil goes back up, no doubt all the energy industry will rise
USO is trading right now above NAV value.
and that's because USO inflow are at record highs and now USO cannot issue anymore shares until they have other approved by SEC

so to be fair at this prices it should be 30% lower because while inflows reports into assets there were not new shares for the money coming in.

yesterday you had 34% gain in futs june and uso was like +3% and than drop to -5%
imho that etf and others cannot do anything now.

i mean look at the dif between futs june/jully -> you still have $7 right now. so if they want to buy jully or others they are loosing money.
who is taking the loss ? the shareholders. but people don't really study what are they buying or selling.

so long story short to get into some exposure on energy you can look also on how bonds of the companies are trading especially now that some of them have support from the FED buying junk. so as long as their bonds are ok i see less risk going direct into companies being carefull rather than futs,cfs or etf's
also some of them still have a huge dvd payment and with FED support that could remain. they can also bring a FED facility to energy sector to support them with loans overnight money and so on. so way less risk imho
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #7,717
  • Apr 23, 2020 6:57am Apr 23, 2020 6:57am
oil has fallen sharply and rebounded quickly, if it is now very dangerous to buy because brokers warned them to lose liquidity. Even, after buying, we may not be able to close the order as desired
  • #7,718
  • Apr 23, 2020 7:43am Apr 23, 2020 7:43am
June futures +20% again
uso trading at 2.6 (+3.9%) premarket ......... so game over for uso.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #7,719
  • Apr 23, 2020 8:23am Apr 23, 2020 8:23am
Quoting DMA Trader
June futures +20% again uso trading at 2.6 (+3.9%) premarket ......... so game over for uso.
USO has july fut as well as far as i know

And maybe farer expiry ? which could explain this slow move up
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #7,720
  • Apr 23, 2020 8:53am Apr 23, 2020 8:53am
Feels very much like a pullback that precedes a big fall.
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