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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #6,201
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:32am Apr 21, 2020 4:32am
Quoting 44johnw
{quote} It bounced off the Daily 26 EMA in RSI Div so didnt make it back to the 1hr EMA. Targeting the 2318 average swing level and have a AB=CD target at 2330 Cheers John

Thanks John

Everyday is a school day for me.
  • #6,202
  • Apr 21, 2020 9:43am Apr 21, 2020 9:43am
Quoting 44johnw
{quote} It bounced off the Daily 26 EMA in RSI Div so didnt make it back to the 1hr EMA. Targeting the 2318 average swing level and have a AB=CD target at 2330 Cheers John
Hi John, I don't see an AB=CD with the target of 2330. Can you please show me?
  • #6,203
  • Apr 21, 2020 9:57am Apr 21, 2020 9:57am
Quoting KevinOwens
{quote} Hi John, I don't see an AB=CD with the target of 2330. Can you please show me?
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  • #6,204
  • Apr 23, 2020 3:17am Apr 23, 2020 3:17am
Anyone else get caught out by the down move this morning after bar 108. I saw the bearish divs on the M5 and the M15 but we were so far above the average on the H1 that I only made small entries, and after that I was reluctant to add any more. Was still expecting an up move. It became obvious we were coming down after 15-20 minutes but too late then. Anyhow....can't catch them all I suppose.
  • #6,205
  • Apr 23, 2020 3:40am Apr 23, 2020 3:40am
Didn't mess up on the move back up so got my 40 pips.

Zoo point on the M5 swing low and bingo. Thank you Alan
  • #6,206
  • Apr 23, 2020 3:44am Apr 23, 2020 3:44am
Quoting Dubtrader
Anyone else get caught out by the down move this morning after bar 108. I saw the bearish divs on the M5 and the M15 but we were so far above the average on the H1 that I only made small entries, and after that I was reluctant to add any more. Was still expecting an up move. It became obvious we were coming down after 15-20 minutes but too late then. Anyhow....can't catch them all I suppose.
I'm not quite sure what you did here at all.

At 108 you correctly called the Div. This prompts a tentative entry, the the hook gave the second entry and we move the stop to the 1st.

The Div cause the cross of the 5 min ema and the bears found support so if you have not yet got your 3rd trade on this was the opportunity to do so.

The 5 min then gave you an ABCD target to aim for.

I think (I'm guessing here) that you worry about being stopped out and close rather than let the trade run its course.
  • #6,207
  • Apr 23, 2020 3:46am Apr 23, 2020 3:46am
Quoting Dubtrader
Didn't mess up on the move back up so got my 40 pips. Zoo point on the M5 swing low and bingo. Thank you Alan
There you go...well done.
  • #6,208
  • Apr 23, 2020 3:48am Apr 23, 2020 3:48am
It is not about getting 40 pips but getting them once the 3rd trade is on to maximise your profits.
  • #6,209
  • Apr 23, 2020 3:51am Apr 23, 2020 3:51am
Just a little bit of scary information... Since the beginning of FEB I have made 4842%

I don't really like to post these things but here I make the exception to show how powerful this is.
  • #6,210
  • Apr 23, 2020 3:58am Apr 23, 2020 3:58am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I'm not quite sure what you did here at all. At 108 you correctly called the Div. This prompts a tentative entry, the the hook gave the second entry and we move the stop to the 1st. The Div cause the cross of the 5 min ema and the bears found support so if you have not yet got your 3rd trade on this was the opportunity to do so. The 5 min then gave you an ABCD target to aim for. I think (I'm guessing here) that you worry about being stopped out and close rather than let the trade run its course.
More like I was caught ball watching Alan. I was looking at the H1 which had bear support above the average. I saw the bearish Divs made the first entry only. Got the stop to break even but didnt add the two other entries because I was still watching the hourly. Even missed the hook, again looking at the ball and not the bigger picture. Ow well.

There is definitely an element in my trading of worring about being stopped out, even when I have the stop at break even + 1. Several things I need to work on.

Thanks Alan
  • #6,211
  • Apr 23, 2020 4:10am Apr 23, 2020 4:10am
Quoting Nala66
Just a little bit of scary information... Since the beginning of FEB I have made 4842% I don't really like to post these things but here I make the exception to show how powerful this is.
Inspiration Alan. I Think I will study harder after reading that!! Definitely the most powerful system for me as well even with a small balance you can quickly add zero's and multiply the account.

I'm feel I'm getting better just need more practice. As Jazz would say "FOCUS". Identifying ZOO points has been a huge help. Caught some really nice trades the last few days from simply marking out ZOO points at the beginning of the session and taking trades from them.

Thanks for the feed back Alan
  • #6,212
  • Apr 23, 2020 4:11am Apr 23, 2020 4:11am
Quoting Dubtrader
{quote} More like I was caught ball watching Alan. I was looking at the H1 which had bear support above the average. I saw the bearish Divs made the first entry only. Got the stop to break even but didnt add the two other entries because I was still watching the hourly. Even missed the hook, again looking at the ball and not the bigger picture. Ow well. There is definitely an element in my trading of worring about being stopped out, even when I have the stop at break even + 1. Several things I need to work on. Thanks Alan
No worries no one says it is easy at all. It takes practice and commitment to doing the job almost without a care.

Course I cannot teach how to be bold, we are all different in this respect.

Here below I have tries to make it as visual as I can.

Trust me I get stopped out heaps of times but lose very little. When I win I win very big.
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  • #6,213
  • Apr 23, 2020 4:16am Apr 23, 2020 4:16am
Quoting Dubtrader
{quote} Inspiration Alan. I Think I will study harder after reading that!! Definitely the most powerful system for me as well even with a small balance you can quickly add zero's and multiply the account. I'm feel I'm getting better just need more practice. As Jazz would say "FOCUS". Identifying ZOO points has been a huge help. Caught some really nice trades the last few days from simply marking out ZOO points at the beginning of the session and taking trades from them. Thanks for the feed back Alan
And I am glad to here this...Well done
  • #6,214
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:00am Apr 23, 2020 5:00am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} No worries no one says it is easy at all. It takes practice and commitment to doing the job almost without a care. Course I cannot teach how to be bold, we are all different in this respect. Here below I have tries to make it as visual as I can. Trust me I get stopped out heaps of times but lose very little. When I win I win very big. {image}
Hello Alan,

Can you explain your first entry please ? It was at the close of the up bar ?
I mean the next bar could have been higher and invalidate the div.
Also we were above the 1 hour ema, I thought that we only think longs in this case ? I get that we were on a M5 ZOO at 108 + a div but still don't understand how you enter in the first place in this exact bar.
Last but not least, how do you manage the second and third entries, M1 ?
  • #6,215
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:23am Apr 23, 2020 5:23am
Quoting Rodin
{quote} Hello Alan, Can you explain your first entry please ? It was at the close of the up bar ? I mean the next bar could have been higher and invalidate the div. Also we were above the 1 hour ema, I thought that we only think longs in this case ? I get that we were on a M5 ZOO at 108 + a div but still don't understand how you enter in the first place in this exact bar. Last but not least, how do you manage the second and third entries, M1 ?
That's where I placed my first entry as explained above. It was a divergence so I took the trade but didn't follow up with the other entries.

The RSI would have to be higher to invalidate the Div not the candle. Hope that helps
  • #6,216
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:27am Apr 23, 2020 5:27am
Quoting Rodin
{quote} Hello Alan, Can you explain your first entry please ? It was at the close of the up bar ? I mean the next bar could have been higher and invalidate the div. Also we were above the 1 hour ema, I thought that we only think longs in this case ? I get that we were on a M5 ZOO at 108 + a div but still don't understand how you enter in the first place in this exact bar. Last but not least, how do you manage the second and third entries, M1 ?
Sure, I have not got the chart in front of me now but the story is always the same, day in day out...

I have a div FORMING on the 5 min, I am well above the 1 hour EMA so I could get a decent pullback.

So I drop to the 1 min and look for a short... = entry 1.

Then expecting the hook on the 5 min, which we got again look to the 1 min for a short... =2nd entry. Stops are adjusted and it is here I get stopped out a lot. However not this time.

Again another 5 min pull back and again drop to the 1 min for the 3rd entry.

That is the entries covered next I have to think of protecting the trade entirely with the stops and where is price going today, what is the target.

I have a good idea because I can see the AB distance even though I am not sure where C is yet. Once I have C I have the distance sorted. At this stage I can also adjust the balance of my lots and add a tad if I need to in order to reach my profit target at the price target.

When I say we are trading above the 1 hour EMA it does not mean there will not be pull backs and even crosses.

Does that make sense?
  • #6,217
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:42am Apr 23, 2020 5:42am
Quoting Rodin
{quote} Hello Alan, Can you explain your first entry please ? It was at the close of the up bar ? I mean the next bar could have been higher and invalidate the div. Also we were above the 1 hour ema, I thought that we only think longs in this case ? I get that we were on a M5 ZOO at 108 + a div but still don't understand how you enter in the first place in this exact bar. Last but not least, how do you manage the second and third entries, M1 ?
The other things I took in to consideration were

Price was up against the 4HR EMA
It was at the 50% of the 1HR ABCD
No 1HR Bull support

So drop down to 5MIN and dip toe in the water as Alan would say
  • #6,218
  • Apr 23, 2020 5:43am Apr 23, 2020 5:43am
I like that expression... The next bar could have been higher.

Of course it could and if it was ten pips higher I would have been stopped out losing about $40.

When I have all three trades on that is $25 a pip so just 2 of these puts me well in profit. Whereas the full forty gives me $1000+

The plus is a makeup of any past stop outs so for example we may take 45 pips if it is on offer.

It could well be the case there is just not enough pips in the trade but this is not common. In a case like that we are simply loading up the trade with what we can so that when we hedge that becomes the primary trade and all the smaller loadings are closed leaving us with one large trade on the table with the stop at BE + 1.
  • #6,219
  • Apr 23, 2020 6:06am Apr 23, 2020 6:06am
Although I take a look at it I don't use the 4 hour chart much because that bar can easily swing 40 pips in either direction. Like wise for the daily, weekly and monthly. They are interesting but I don't trade from them, my stops would have to be wide and this means my lot sizes have to be smaller to keep the draw down low.

Imagine if I get stopped out on my second entry even at ten pips my loss is only $80. This is nothing when compared to a $1,000 win.

We have mathematics on our side so use it to our advantage.

If I was to put the whole amount on with entry 1 then a ten pip loss would be $250 which is a significant part of $1000. Far better to have a 1:12 risk reward than a 1:4 don't you think?

I can be wrong several times in a row before getting it right and then I can often make up not only the profit but the past losses also.
  • #6,220
  • Apr 23, 2020 6:19am Apr 23, 2020 6:19am
Just looked at the news calendar (silly me) those US unemployment figures look a bit fishy. With the Covid 19 they should be much higher or a lot of people are going to die in the US.

By May 1st at their current rate over a million will be infected and 1 in 18 die.

I really don't know what the Fed gov in the US is up to at all, they only seem to be interested in the economy but this could cost them dearly.
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