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Magic 100

  • #341
  • Apr 21, 2020 5:06am Apr 21, 2020 5:06am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Why don't you check the statistics for SL set at the bar H/L being hit when the value is less than 2x ATR and compare to when the SL is at least 2x ATR. Then you will have some actual numbers to evaluate instead of nebulous criteria such as "It makes sense that...". "From what I saw ...", "If feels like it should be...", "It's obvious that...", "The last two times that I was stopped out..." etc., to see if it is even worth being concerned about. If you care to do a more thorough analysis, use a range of multipliers rather than only 2x, several...
Hi DrDave,

When you're right, you're right.
I thought I read something about this in one of Minotawrs posts.

Kind regards,

Gizmo
  • #342
  • Apr 21, 2020 5:07am Apr 21, 2020 5:07am
USD/CAD first 1:3 trade for me.
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  • #343
  • Apr 21, 2020 5:08am Apr 21, 2020 5:08am
GBP/JPY and the first 1:4 trade as well.
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  • #344
  • Apr 21, 2020 5:16am Apr 21, 2020 5:16am
Quoting gizmo96
{quote} Hi DrDave, When you're right, you're right. I thought I read something about this in one of Minotawrs posts. Kind regards, Gizmo
He did mention that he widened his SL when he had a very small range bar. However, there has not been any statistical data presented, so it is impossible to determine if there would be any significant impact on your long term results if you use some different criteria to set SL that originally posted. I am confident that more than one person can post a single example of where widening the SL for small range bars resulted in a benefit compared to using the extreme of the bar. But a single instance (or even a few instances) are a far cry from a study that can provide the answer to whether or not there is statistical significance to the findings.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #345
  • Apr 21, 2020 5:25am Apr 21, 2020 5:25am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} He did mention that he widened his SL when he had a very small range bar. However, there has not been any statistical data presented, so it is impossible to determine if there would be any significant impact on your long term results if you use some different criteria to set SL that originally posted. I am confident that more than one person can post a single example of where widening the SL for small range bars resulted in a benefit compared to using the extreme of the bar. But a single instance (or even a few instances) are a far cry from...
I won't make any changes to the SL settings, I will use the previous high/low until Minotawr comes with something else.
Minotawr is trading this system for multiple years, so he knows if this system works or not.
If it was better to use ATR or whatever, I guess he would have noticed it by now

The losses of yesterday are now fully recovered, by the way.
  • #346
  • Apr 21, 2020 5:28am Apr 21, 2020 5:28am
Quoting gizmo96
{quote} I won't make any changes to the SL settings, I will use the previous high/low until Minotawr comes with something else. Minotawr is trading this system for multiple years, so he knows if this system works or not. If it was better to use ATR or whatever, I guess he would have noticed it by now The losses of yesterday are now fully recovered, by the way.
EXACTLY! Not only noticed it, but would have included it in the criteria for setting the SL.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #347
  • Apr 21, 2020 8:47am Apr 21, 2020 8:47am
Quoting DrDave
{quote} Why don't you check the statistics for SL set at the bar H/L being hit when the value is less than 2x ATR and compare to when the SL is at least 2x ATR. Then you will have some actual numbers to evaluate instead of nebulous criteria such as "It makes sense that...". "From what I saw ...", "If feels like it should be...", "It's obvious that...", "The last two times that I was stopped out..." etc., to see if it is even worth being concerned about. If you care to do a more thorough analysis, use a range of multipliers rather than only 2x, several...
I really like what you said here, DrDave. I think you successfully pointed out a common tendency in most threads - unwillingness to do basic homework from receivers part. Rather than waiting to be spoon fed till the last detail of OP's approach, why not take what is already shared and fill the rest with backtesting and finetuning to your own personal liking or style?

I for one have already backtested some pairs for last few months (including months prior corona virus volatility) and come to conclusions:

  1. I like to aim for R2 only;
  2. ATR (20) of 1H chart x2 seems to be a safe go-to for SL;
  3. AUD/JPY and GBP/USD gave me the most comfortable profitability;
  4. Found a window where I would look for said setups (an hour prior London open till about NY open);
  5. One setup/retracement/trade per pair, per day is about most optimal;
  6. Also not carrying trades overnight, unless it is in negative;
  7. + some other nuances that would be hard to convey in a single sentence.

I'm not saying this to undermine OP's approach, but this is how it would suit me personally.
I'm not here to merely copy someone, but rather conduct due diligence and preferably draw some value from it.

https://i.imgur.com/4IEUv6K.png

  • #348
  • Apr 21, 2020 12:57pm Apr 21, 2020 12:57pm
Quoting jonivaio
{quote} I'm not here to merely copy someone, but rather conduct due diligence and preferably draw some value from it.
Thumbs up for that, jonivaio. This kind of attitude is, sadly, in short supply anywhere on FF.
Timing Direction Strength
  • #349
  • Apr 21, 2020 1:00pm Apr 21, 2020 1:00pm
AUD/JPY 2x BE
The first trade made it to R2 and the second trade made it to R1.
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  • #350
  • Apr 21, 2020 1:02pm Apr 21, 2020 1:02pm
AUD/USD 1x BE, the trade made it to R3, but the TP didn't get triggered.
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  • #351
  • Apr 21, 2020 1:04pm Apr 21, 2020 1:04pm
EUR/AUD 1x BE, the trade made it to R2.
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  • #352
  • Apr 21, 2020 1:05pm Apr 21, 2020 1:05pm
Quoting gizmo96
AUD/JPY 2x BE The first trade made it to R2 and the second trade made it to R1. {image}
Don't move your stop to BE - let it run to SL or at least to 2:1 where you can close a part of your position. You will be more profitable in the long run.
  • #353
  • Apr 21, 2020 1:06pm Apr 21, 2020 1:06pm
EUR/NZD 1x BE, the trade didn't get much further then R1, but far enough to set my SL to BE.
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  • #354
  • Apr 21, 2020 1:07pm Apr 21, 2020 1:07pm
GBP/CAD 1x SL
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  • #355
  • Apr 21, 2020 1:10pm Apr 21, 2020 1:10pm
GBP/USD 1x SL and 1x BE
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  • #356
  • Apr 21, 2020 1:11pm Apr 21, 2020 1:11pm
NZD/USD 1x BE
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  • #357
  • Apr 21, 2020 1:17pm Apr 21, 2020 1:17pm
Quoting jonivaio
{quote} I really like what you said here, DrDave. I think you successfully pointed out a common tendency in most threads - unwillingness to do basic homework from receivers part. Rather than waiting to be spoon fed till the last detail of OP's approach, why not take what is already shared and fill the rest with backtesting and finetuning to your own personal liking or style? I for one have already backtested some pairs for last few months (including months prior corona virus volatility) and come to conclusions: I like to aim for R2 only; ATR (20)...
Hi Jonivaio,

In your first line you agree to DrDave, and I agree with him as well, that we shouldn't just change this system or add indicators or whatever.
A few lines later, you do exactly what I did in my post, giving it your own twist, and that is fine by me as well.
But, instead of backtesting this system for a few months, I have forward tested a similar system for months, so I was just sharing my experience.
From now on I will keep my thoughts for myself and only share trades that I made.

Kind regards,

Gizmo.
  • #358
  • Apr 21, 2020 1:56pm Apr 21, 2020 1:56pm
Quoting Olarion1975
{quote} Don't move your stop to BE - let it run to SL or at least to 2:1 where you can close a part of your position. You will be more profitable in the long run.
Thank Olarion, I appreciate the feedback.

Kind regards,

Gizmo
  • #359
  • Apr 21, 2020 2:03pm Apr 21, 2020 2:03pm
Quoting gizmo96
{quote} Hi Jonivaio, In your first line you agree to DrDave, and I agree with him as well, that we shouldn't just change this system or add indicators or whatever. A few lines later, you do exactly what I did in my post, giving it your own twist, and that is fine by me as well. But, instead of backtesting this system for a few months, I have forward tested a similar system for months, so I was just sharing my experience. From now on I will keep my thoughts for myself and only share trades that I made. Kind regards, Gizmo.
I suspect that if you have the data to show that backs up your finding of "whatever" added to the system that results in improved profits with no negative change in drawdown, Minotawr would be glad to have you present your findings.

Forward testing for months and then simply saying, "I forward tested this 'whatever' for months and got better profits than if it were not used" is still not enough, because there is no data presented to support the claim.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #360
  • Apr 21, 2020 6:00pm Apr 21, 2020 6:00pm
Quoting Minotawr
{quote} Nice one, my friend! Keep up the good work here I appreciate what you do, since i am not good on explanations.
That's a shame. I was going to ask you to explain how YOU identify start of a trend because to me that bit is the most important. Xkwisit explained they look for an exhaustion candle. I was wondering how YOU read the trend because like many other strategies, it looks beautiful when market is trending but would not so much when it moves sideways.
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