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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #61,541
  • Edited 9:59am Apr 19, 2020 7:35am | Edited 9:59am
hi fti,

Thanks, I revisited "The Wave Principle" (1938) to get in sync. In respect to below paragraphs, I reviewed 3 different tf chart of a stock (1hr, 4hrs, 1day). The bid/ask spread is $0.001.

"Using elliot wave count on multiple time frame increments, you will visually find the sd mean.
If you get lots bc waves, means you are charting inactivity time frames. Static zones.
If you charting static zones you are wasting you time.
Is like tracking how many times you sneeze in a minute."

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  1. Chart A (1hr): On wave 2, appears to have too much bc waves.
  2. Wave 2 is in static zone. Also, it is consolidating in rectangle with range ard ~$0.005.
  3. Wave 1 impulse has much more juicy range at ~$0.02.



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  1. Chart B(4hrs): Less bc waves on wave 2. Wave 3 impulse has very juicy range at $0.03


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  1. Chart C (daily): 1 set of abc waves. Activity picking up recently.
  2. Static zones prior to February.



I think your concept is,

  1. We want to capture the "sneeze" / impulse.
  2. If the sneeze usually occurs on average, twice a day, then plotting it a 1 or 5 minutes time chart is meaningless and non-productive. The chart will show a lot blank space most of the time.
  3. It may be more productive to plot on say, a 4 hrs/6hrs time frame.
  4. Thus, select the chart tf which able shows the sneezes with little blank space in between.
  5. Strategise the MM on the info obtained i.e the avg leg range, the avg retracement time, etc.
  6. In the 3 charts posted, the best will be the daily to trade at the moment as activities has picked up.

Is the above reasoning & chart in ball park?

By "sd mean", does it refer to the average range of impulse leg?

thank you

THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #61,542
  • Edited 10:04am Apr 19, 2020 7:52am | Edited 10:04am
Quoting fti
{quote} Ok since you are old friend. And you said you no wish be stupid. 1. You cannot trade the equitues markets. You invest to get dividents from manipulative growth by management. Its a loan fron you to the company and you expect interest. Note:with this locked down economies recently, there is no wsy any company will pay you anything. Maybe free facemask kr big plastic bag. 2.for equities, trading can be done on indexes. You can either sell hedge your holdings of sector equities. Or you can loan out your stocks for sellers who may pay you to...


Ok since you are old friend.
And you said you no wish be stupid.

1. You cannot trade the equitues markets.
You invest to get dividents from manipulative growth by management. Its a loan fron you to the company and you expect interest.
Yes, I appreciate this point, after some experience "investing" in equities. This is the worse kind of "loan". Many of the companies have since gone burst or under financial stress. And these were big cap companies. 100% loss expected.

Note:with this locked down economies recently, there is no wsy any company will pay you anything.
Maybe free facemask kr big plastic bag.

2.for equities, trading can be done on indexes.
You can either sell hedge your holdings of sector equities. Or you can loan out your stocks for sellers who may pay you to screw your counter up. Otgerwise sell puts, get premium and dividents from holdings. noted, will devote some time to study option. From time to time, I am studying a book by Charles M Cottle. His career timeline seems to overlap with yours, would be nice to hear from you on him/his book if any.

Or you can buy indexes if you have insider info about the company manipulation.
Never admit to anyone that you are doing insider trading or dpend time in lockup.

To determine at what time frame your equities will be permium manipulated use charts with unfrequent bc wave counts. Already told you stop charting air activities.

If you bloker chart service refuse to give you multi timeframe charts.
Its because they market making or its in their managers manipulation portfolio. Check tbeir newsletters, you will find it regularly recommended.
yes, noted. Bing fa.
The only counter equities you should buy regularly is money. Money is king. And even try not buy the WRONG currency.esp if you have to pay interest to deposit it in the banks. They no appreciate your sweaty stinking money. So no be stupid. Be clever buy the one who appreciates you sweaty money pays you good interest.

Regards.

Unless you want to walk around.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #61,543
  • Apr 19, 2020 8:43am Apr 19, 2020 8:43am
Quoting Zoran
{quote} Hey, finally managed to get the video uploaded into youtube, as it's quite long, I had to merge three videos into one, meaning I had to figure out how to do it... Yeah, she's a good skier, she's been doing it for 40 years... Anyway, here's a bit of off-piste skiing with my son... 20 mins of it! Happy weekend! Cheers... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgSRg_UmX4c
Looked like great fun! Sounded icy in places, but i never mind the ice too much. Reminded me of the ice we experienced at Mont Tremblant in Canada. It is a very nice mountain, kinda icy and the coldest place I’ve ever been. But great skiing and offers good off trail skiing, which my son and I did. Your video was a joy to watch and brought back good memories for me. Thanks so much. Skiing is a good activity in this Covid-19 world, given the social distancing that is required...lol. Hope you get to the USA sometime, maybe post-Covid-19 pandemic.
  • #61,544
  • Apr 20, 2020 7:54am Apr 20, 2020 7:54am
Inserted Video
  • #61,545
  • Apr 20, 2020 8:37am Apr 20, 2020 8:37am
Here they come again.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...le-coronavirus
  • #61,546
  • Apr 20, 2020 8:48am Apr 20, 2020 8:48am
Come again? https://www.facebook.com/20041183997...sn=mo&d=n&vh=e
  • #61,547
  • Apr 20, 2020 10:25am Apr 20, 2020 10:25am
Quoting fti
Here they come again. https://www.theguardian.com/politics...le-coronavirus
It doesn't seem likely though, they can't even agree much in the United Nations, how can they create a global government, even temporarily? What this virus seems to be showing, is that governments are reluctant to help others and instead are attempting to safeguard their own....
  • #61,548
  • Edited 4:39pm Apr 20, 2020 12:59pm | Edited 4:39pm
Quoting Zoran
{quote} It doesn't seem likely though, they can't even agree much in the United Nations, how can they create a global government, even temporarily? What this virus seems to be showing, is that governments are reluctant to help others and instead are attempting to safeguard their own....
Deception.
All strategies strength is in deception.
What do you know is media.
Media is propaganda feed.

Regards
  • #61,549
  • Apr 20, 2020 9:17pm Apr 20, 2020 9:17pm
hi fti,

It would be nice to receive your comments on the study I made...
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #61,550
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:29pm Apr 20, 2020 11:29pm
another company down, this time it is private company... and one would think that private controlled company would be more careful with their money

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...&sref=3utxjTsM

It’s a business model the company has employed with gusto over decades. Often making money when prices moved in the right direction; but often also getting hurt, as the founder’s son Evan Lim put it in a rare interview more than 25 years ago. “On one occasion we agreed to buy 800,000 barrels for delivery with a five-day pricing window,” the younger Lim told Bloomberg News in 1994. “We got burned badly because the seller was in the market pushing prices up.”
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #61,551
  • Apr 21, 2020 12:29am Apr 21, 2020 12:29am
US oil market crashes to NEGATIVE in historic plummet

https://www.rt.com/business/486368-u...price-plummet/

Looks like storage facilities are in short supply.
Who would have thought they'd be paying someone to take their oil? Counter-party risk?
  • #61,552
  • Apr 21, 2020 6:45am Apr 21, 2020 6:45am
Yaya also no more virgin.

I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:
Virgin Australia slumps into administration - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-52363428
  • #61,553
  • Apr 21, 2020 7:51am Apr 21, 2020 7:51am
Quoting fti
Yaya also no more virgin. I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it: Virgin Australia slumps into administration - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-52363428
A big physical trading company not hedging its exposure... is surprising..

The legal documents filed by OK Lim also shed light on how risky the business model was. Most physical oil traders hedge their positions using derivatives such as futures, options and swaps. But Hin Leong didn’t. As a matter of policy, the company “did not hedge aggressively,” Lim said in his affidavit.

Not just virgin airlines.. infact all airline is bankrupted by covid. SG gov is pumping in $10s of billion to save SIA.....

i think we may still have virgin, he is gona use his private island to stem the bleeding. if fails, use alternative product...

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THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #61,554
  • Edited 6:23pm Apr 21, 2020 9:03am | Edited 6:23pm
Quoting Jacque
{quote} A big physical trading company not hedging its exposure... is surprising.. The legal documents filed by OK Lim also shed light on how risky the business model was. Most physical oil traders hedge their positions using derivatives such as futures, options and swaps. But Hin Leong didn’t. As a matter of policy, the company “did not hedge aggressively,” Lim said in his affidavit. Not just virgin airlines.. infact all airline is bankrupted by covid. SG gov is pumping in $10s of billion to save SIA..... i think we may still have virgin, he is...
Eeer coconut virgins.
No go.
Olive has a chance.
What the coconuts. Which coconut is virgin. All the coconuts i seen all split already.

Regards
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  • #61,555
  • Apr 21, 2020 6:18pm Apr 21, 2020 6:18pm
Quoting Jacque
{quote} A big physical trading company not hedging its exposure... is surprising.. The legal documents filed by OK Lim also shed light on how risky the business model was. Most physical oil traders hedge their positions using derivatives such as futures, options and swaps. But Hin Leong didn’t. As a matter of policy, the company “did not hedge aggressively,” Lim said in his affidavit. Not just virgin airlines.. infact all airline is bankrupted by covid. SG gov is pumping in $10s of billion to save SIA..... i think we may still have virgin, he is...
You think everyone knows how to hedge.
If hedge wrong bigger hole.
https://www.nytimes.com/2005/06/09/b...on-oil-in.html

And never say things like ALL airlines is bankrupt.
They will find way for you pay full fare. When they file for bankuptcy then you say they bankrupt. Until then they have hands on your balls. Pray they no twist it.

Regards
  • #61,556
  • Edited 6:51pm Apr 21, 2020 6:28pm | Edited 6:51pm
Quoting Jacque
hi fti, It would be nice to receive your comments on the study I made...
Why?
You want me insult you and your charting software?
Already tild you how they blindsight you analysis. Then you come show me you blindness?
Tell you what.
Show me 1 min stock chart. And analysis.
But unless you have 1 min data feed for charting. They con you. Garbage data feed

I ask you at what time did oil prices went negative and who was seller?
Of course you don't know.
Itherwise your chart would hsd lead you to short.

At what time means you charting.
Who means you have market intel.

Otherwise you is blind as a corona bat.
We eat blind bats for supper.


Regards

By the way, real data feed for forex, we pay reuters thru our nose. You think they can servive by their news section? Charting software we create inhouse by bank employed coders. We don't bother with the rubbish the provide. We want our data presented the way we understand it. Not the bullshit you peeps gets stuffed into your throats.
Budget for service determine if you will enjoy the f.
Free service garantee u disease of whatever they have.
So far i think ff is only peeps trying provide real price feeds. Others i think you mouse is controlled.
  • #61,557
  • Apr 21, 2020 6:55pm Apr 21, 2020 6:55pm
This world is full of con

I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:
Coronavirus: Deaths at 20-year high but peak may be over - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519

If they have 1 carrier they problem not solved.
They talking what cock about peak?
Just 1 new carrier and they can cluster.
What the fuck peak?

After it peaks we pray that the new carrier sits next to the bastard for lunch. And good riddence to bad rubbish.
And good luck to his whole family. Peaked.
  • #61,558
  • Edited 9:40pm Apr 21, 2020 9:28pm | Edited 9:40pm
Quoting fti
{quote} Why? You want me insult you and your charting software? Already tild you how they blindsight you analysis. Then you come show me you blindness? Tell you what. Show me 1 min stock chart. And analysis. But unless you have 1 min data feed for charting. They con you. Garbage data feed I ask you at what time did oil prices went negative and who was seller? Of course you don't know. Itherwise your chart would hsd lead you to short. At what time means you charting. Who means you have market intel. Otherwise you is blind as a corona bat. We eat...
hi fti,

You have been kind to provide reply. I only wish to learn from you to improve my trading. If "being insulted" is part of the process, then so be it. Beggars have no rights to choose.


"Show me 1 min stock chart. And analysis. But unless you have 1 min data feed for charting. They con you."
We want our data presented the way we understand it.
I suspect you are referring to data quality, and the timeframe charts i choose is not finely detailed enough. On SGX, the data is coming directly from the exchange. I suspect the data quality is good enough. So then the issue is with the charting? Is it the idea is to plot say for eg, 1 min increments 1min, 2 min, 3min,etc.... until one could see "something"? The something is "infrequent bc waves". Given there is static waves already seen on the 3 different tf at different peirod of time. Going more refined will not eliminate the static zone. I am a little confused about that. Also confused about this comment, to know exactly what time oil price went negative, the time/sales will tell. The chart cannot show the exact time, unless we got lucky that it went thru at 9:05:00 and i was using a 5mins chart.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #61,559
  • Edited 7:57am Apr 22, 2020 7:40am | Edited 7:57am
Thank you FTI.

After reading first 200 pages ( and limited understanding of what you said there), i was thinking i can nail it now. But can not ..
I was doing demo, and failed 2-3 times, lost ant hills. But i never gave enough time to pattern analysis, and wave analysis.

To be honest, i saved the book and managed to be in positive solely because of MM, where in my scout size is 1% of capital (Demo). I am in profit now ~ 12% in 2 months time, but that is just because of MM, not because of dancing.

I have some understanding of MM now and myself, but very very limited in pattern analysis. After searching on your thread, there are several post where in you have helped peeps know about pattern and analysis of them.

I am reading recommend TA books , and I am going thru the knowledge you have shared.

Thank you for sharing with us FTI. I am glad I found you teachings.

I am making sincere effort to learn the stuff, which you have given. In my opinion, reading first 200 pages are just chapter 101. Once synced, further study is required along with live market experience.

Whether i get it or not. I can not say, but i do my best to get it. If not, thats ok.

Thank you for giving us skills and showing the path.

Regards,
Grasshopper

FTI I am ready for
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  • #61,560
  • Edited 11:01am Apr 22, 2020 10:48am | Edited 11:01am
Major General

http://j.17qq.com/article/mwqnfgkwy.html
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