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The Swamp

  • #60,341
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:30am Apr 21, 2020 4:30am
Quoting diggo
{quote} I am a long-term investor (buy and hold 20-30 years+). I have deployed some of my cash reserves into equities over the past 6 weeks or so but I have kept a lot of powder dry for real estate / any other opportunities that may present. Oil is not in my area of competence, would you have any advice for how to take advantage of the current situation? Any plans for yourself or are you still waiting for it to go lower?

hard to say this oil move could shurt down the industry. cost of shutting down is not in the price and could be extremely hard to take into consideration.
i would wait even if i got my names where i am looking for panic.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #60,342
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:31am Apr 21, 2020 4:31am
Quoting priceaction1
crude, another eventful day ahead.
my trading platform freeze @14.50-55
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #60,343
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:31am Apr 21, 2020 4:31am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} they can't enter the country it's like the whole ocean is full right now. it's something unbelievable
I tried to tell people.. W/o a place to store oil. its worth a negative amount. Even a ton of gold has a cost to own. You have to pay an army to gaurd it.
Oil storage is full. this is how goldman and others f-ed their clients in 2008.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,344
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:34am Apr 21, 2020 4:34am
june -42%
july -20%
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #60,345
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:35am Apr 21, 2020 4:35am
now crude @12.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #60,346
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:35am Apr 21, 2020 4:35am
Eu added 0850.. pending 0860
  • #60,347
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:40am Apr 21, 2020 4:40am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} my trading platform freeze @14.50-55
cash price right now is about 7! on futures june 14 and jully 21
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #60,348
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:41am Apr 21, 2020 4:41am
President Trump at press conference last night said if US can purchase oil before May futures contract expires he will not need funding from Congress, but he will ask Congress for funding to purchase oil in later months since May contract expires today
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #60,349
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:42am Apr 21, 2020 4:42am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} cash price right now is about 7! on futures june 14 and jully 21
if this is not the systematic failure than what is this?
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #60,350
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:43am Apr 21, 2020 4:43am
Quoting DMA Trader
President Trump at press conference last night said if US can purchase oil before May futures contract expires he will not need funding from Congress, but he will ask Congress for funding to purchase oil in later months since May contract expires today
Its bs... w/o a place to put the oil.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,351
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:44am Apr 21, 2020 4:44am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} if this is not the systematic failure than what is this?
it is, it's for sure.
markets are on just because of fed
i also look into the structure so most of the gains are tech (high valuation) and bio (sky rocket valuation)

financials are down big , energy is absent
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #60,352
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:45am Apr 21, 2020 4:45am
Quoting Boulder
Eu added 0850.. pending 0860
out here a little early 0842 +9
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #60,353
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:46am Apr 21, 2020 4:46am
President Trump says he will sign executive order to temporarily suspend immigration into US due to coronavirus
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #60,354
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:51am Apr 21, 2020 4:51am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} out here a little early 0842 +9 {image}
need the -829 close, or 0858 will pull.. We may have to wait for next month to get much below 0777
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,355
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:52am Apr 21, 2020 4:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} need the -829 close, or 0858 will pull..
ok.. I will short 0858
  • #60,356
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:55am Apr 21, 2020 4:55am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} probably need a close below 0829.7 on h, to drop more. After 1 h, larger tf below 0829, may help any drop.. 0829.7 is a week s/r.. the month one lower at 0777, month higher 0899..week R 0880. below 0829 opens up some drop room. week/month wise {image}
new h close in 5 min (0829)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,357
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:57am Apr 21, 2020 4:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} stay away from oil, unless you have a place to store it.
One can trade oil as well as other commodities without expiration and physical delivery at several brokers. For example Oanda. I'm not sure however I'd invest in his time horizon with a broker like that. Theoretically one can break down a 20-year investment into shorter periods/movements that would be more manageable and trade those. However, the introduction of negative asset prices mean that you don't have a "rock bottom" price any more: you long @20 and if it goes to -40 you didn't lose your investment you lost triple that (talking about a non-leveraged account). That flushes a lot of "conventional wisdom" down the loo.

On a tangent: if i short a negative asset price does that mean i'm long the asset now? LMFAO
  • #60,358
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:57am Apr 21, 2020 4:57am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} ok.. I will short 0858
not much excitement at 829 atm..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,359
  • Apr 21, 2020 4:57am Apr 21, 2020 4:57am
Quoting xav
{quote} One can trade oil as well as other commodities without expiration and physical delivery at several brokers. For example Oanda. I'm not sure however I'd invest in his time horizon with a broker like that. Theoretically one can break down a 20-year investment into shorter periods/movements that would be more manageable and trade those. However, the introduction of negative asset prices mean that you don't have a "rock bottom" price any more: you long @20 and if it goes to -40 you didn't lose your investment you lost triple that (talking about...
today is delivery correct? So when they ask, where do you want it?.. You have to say here, along with transport cost.. If you have no place to put it.. Find a cardboard box to live in.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,360
  • Apr 21, 2020 5:00am Apr 21, 2020 5:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} today is delivery correct?
Yes?
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