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The Swamp

  • #60,241
  • Apr 20, 2020 10:54am Apr 20, 2020 10:54am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} this is a systematic failure.
let me search, it sounds familor.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,242
  • Apr 20, 2020 10:54am Apr 20, 2020 10:54am
keep in mind you are looking at the front month futures contract price for wti. It rolls off tomorrow. The next month contract price is $22.2x atm....it's down almost $3 just today, though. The general message is: nobody wants to take delivery of oil right now. The demand collapse and the supply glut are still working against the oil price.

A "positive" sign would be some bankruptcy announcements among the US weak hand producers....then a strong rebound in demand. We know the demand will come back. Whether the supply shut down was enough to help that spike the oil price remains to be seen.

If you want to trade oil long, give yourself plenty of time...at least until late summer...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #60,243
  • Apr 20, 2020 10:58am Apr 20, 2020 10:58am
Quoting k.k
{quote} sorry the crude price is about 22$ what kind of oil is that?
May contract..
  • #60,244
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:00am Apr 20, 2020 11:00am
low atm was 0.01$ per barrel.. not negative yet.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,245
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:01am Apr 20, 2020 11:01am
Quoting boulder
{quote} may contract..
thank you for being helpful.
  • #60,246
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:03am Apr 20, 2020 11:03am
FYI


Oil Plunges Below $5 With Traders Fleeing Expiring Contract

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...alflow-organic
  • #60,247
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:04am Apr 20, 2020 11:04am
Quoting gatorinla
low atm was 0.01$ per barrel.. not negative yet. {image}
sour crude (mostly grades from Alberta tar sands and Gulf of Mex) has been trading negative today.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #60,248
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:04am Apr 20, 2020 11:04am
Quoting The Fool
keep in mind you are looking at the front month futures contract price for wti. It rolls off tomorrow. The next month contract price is $22.2x atm....it's down almost $3 just today, though. The general message is: nobody wants to take delivery of oil right now. The demand collapse and the supply glut are still working against the oil price. A "positive" sign would be some bankruptcy announcements among the US weak hand producers....then a strong rebound in demand. We know the demand will come back. Whether the supply shut down was enough to help...

why not take a physical delivery . 1 contract is a lot of barrels. just speculators on markets.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #60,249
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:05am Apr 20, 2020 11:05am
uso sold all may contracts. not sure if it's true but most of them probably got out on huge loss last days
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #60,250
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:08am Apr 20, 2020 11:08am
uh oh
  • #60,251
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:09am Apr 20, 2020 11:09am
hmmm, 1 penny per barrel.. but you have no place to put it..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,252
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:10am Apr 20, 2020 11:10am
Quoting The Fool
keep in mind you are looking at the front month futures contract price for wti. It rolls off tomorrow. The next month contract price is $22.2x atm....it's down almost $3 just today, though. The general message is: nobody wants to take delivery of oil right now. The demand collapse and the supply glut are still working against the oil price. A "positive" sign would be some bankruptcy announcements among the US weak hand producers....then a strong rebound in demand. We know the demand will come back. Whether the supply shut down was enough to help...
USO 200 contracts $7 Jan 15 2021 @ .25c
  • #60,253
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:11am Apr 20, 2020 11:11am
0.01? wtf
  • #60,254
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:11am Apr 20, 2020 11:11am
;
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  • #60,255
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:12am Apr 20, 2020 11:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} let me search, it sounds familor.
that was for the stock, now the margin calls will hit and shake up all system.
we are seeing the history. still 90% on cash.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #60,256
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:12am Apr 20, 2020 11:12am
Quoting Boulder
; {image}
shutting a well down isn't cheap.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,257
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:13am Apr 20, 2020 11:13am
Quoting priceaction1
{quote} that was for the stock, now the margin calls will hit and shake up all system. we are seeing the history. still 90% on cash.
systemic price reset for the world. It's only worth, what you can sell it for. ATM the price is near a penny of value.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,258
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:14am Apr 20, 2020 11:14am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} USO 200 contracts $7 Jan 15 2021 @ .25c
be careful with USO, it trades based on 1st & 2nd month wti futues (80/20 now) and, when there is steep contango between those contracts, the cost to roll up eats away at the instrument price...

...lots of recent articles on USO offer more thorough explanation

I have just been buying OIL calls out to Sep and further.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #60,259
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:14am Apr 20, 2020 11:14am
Quoting Boulder
; {image}
was 140/b during good old days. now upside down.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #60,260
  • Apr 20, 2020 11:15am Apr 20, 2020 11:15am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} be careful with USO, it trades based on 1st & 2nd month wti futues (80/20 now) and, when there is steep contango between those contracts, the cost to roll up eats away at the instrument price... ...lots of recent articles on USO offer more thorough explanation I have just been buying OIL calls out to Sep and further.
I shouldnt have got filled @ .25, but did. It's trading .30 atm, shooting you a message
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