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  • #7,401
  • Apr 20, 2020 3:09am Apr 20, 2020 3:09am
i can see June contract going to $20 in the next week or two. really don't see anything positive happening in the next few weeks. lockdown isnt going to ease much and storage will only get fuller.

more rigs are shutting down in the US but this is going to be gradual process and probably still insufficient in grand scheme of things
  • #7,402
  • Apr 20, 2020 3:15am Apr 20, 2020 3:15am
Hello, good lads,

could anyone please paste the latest data and upcoming dates regarding the rollover, so us, dedicated readers, will be up to date with them.

Additional question - since I read all previous posts about it - everyone was mentioning high June contract prices, but they come into effect in June or May (as I understood from some users)?

Thank you very much and stay green.
  • #7,403
  • Apr 20, 2020 3:23am Apr 20, 2020 3:23am
Despite oil flat price crashing, and contango widening, the retail money keeps flowing and flowing. The U.S. Oil ETF registered on Friday its biggest ever one-day inflow, at $552 million
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #7,404
  • Apr 20, 2020 3:36am Apr 20, 2020 3:36am
Quoting PrinceCharmy
Hello, good lads, could anyone please paste the latest data and upcoming dates regarding the rollover, so us, dedicated readers, will be up to date with them. Additional question - since I read all previous posts about it - everyone was mentioning high June contract prices, but they come into effect in June or May (as I understood from some users)? Thank you very much and stay green.
https://www.energygps.com/HomeTools/ExpiryCalendar
May contract expiring today, June contract is the most heavily traded now
  • #7,405
  • Apr 20, 2020 4:05am Apr 20, 2020 4:05am
Quoting tonny47
i can see June contract going to $20 in the next week or two. really don't see anything positive happening in the next few weeks. lockdown isnt going to ease much and storage will only get fuller. more rigs are shutting down in the US but this is going to be gradual process and probably still insufficient in grand scheme of things
The devil is in the details rigs don't produce oil, wells do.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #7,406
  • Apr 20, 2020 5:29am Apr 20, 2020 5:29am
Today following European countries start to unfreeze economy:

Czech Republic
Norway
Denmark
Germany
Sweden is totally open

more:

Israel
New Zealand (27th April)


It won't raise the price but shall slowdon the depreciation. Trump is also going to unfreeze partially US economy but not sure about dates.
I'm not a fan of further move down besides sharp SL hunting.
  • #7,407
  • Apr 20, 2020 5:49am Apr 20, 2020 5:49am
Quoting mario83
Today following European countries start to unfreeze economy: Czech Republic Norway Denmark Germany Sweden is totally open more: Israel New Zealand (27th April) It won't raise the price but shall slowdon the depreciation. Trump is also going to unfreeze partially US economy but not sure about dates. I'm not a fan of further move down besides sharp SL hunting.
Yup, that is a huge factor... Also, as soon as above is more confirmed/sure, markets will reactive fast... they won't wait till the full re-start but till the possibility/trajectory of full re-start... So I am looking very closely what happens in the next days... I believe we might get/see the trajectories this week...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #7,408
  • Apr 20, 2020 6:49am Apr 20, 2020 6:49am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yup, that is a huge factor... Also, as soon as above is more confirmed/sure, markets will reactive fast... they won't wait till the full re-start but till the possibility/trajectory of full re-start... So I am looking very closely what happens in the next days... I believe we might get/see the trajectories this week...
i think this will still take few weeks. all the countries on the list have fairly small population except for German. US is only going to remove lockdown in not-densely populated areas. plus if the spread of corona keeps getting worse, it might hit the countries and oil even harder.
  • #7,409
  • Apr 20, 2020 7:57am Apr 20, 2020 7:57am
At these levels under bearish conditions. How does one trade this. Short at historic lows or buy and hold in a severely depressed market?
  • #7,410
  • Apr 20, 2020 8:05am Apr 20, 2020 8:05am
Sorry guys Im newbie in trading, why on ICMarkets OIL cant be traded (only CLOSE-ing trade)?
  • #7,411
  • Apr 20, 2020 8:08am Apr 20, 2020 8:08am
Quoting Kwame Freder
At these levels under bearish conditions. How does one trade this. Short at historic lows or buy and hold in a severely depressed market?
I tried option 2 for days but i guess you know how that ended by now
  • #7,412
  • Apr 20, 2020 8:33am Apr 20, 2020 8:33am
Started loading up on crude oil @ $11.20. Pending orders at $10.30, $10, $9.50, $9, and $8. Stops are pretty wide, but it has to go back up for some retracement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOil 04202020_2.PNG Size: 72 KB
  • #7,413
  • Apr 20, 2020 8:46am Apr 20, 2020 8:46am
Quoting EG-Invest168
Started loading up on crude oil @ $11.20. Pending orders at $10.30, $10, $9.50, $9, and $8. Stops are pretty wide, but it has to go back up for some retracement. {image}
you do know that it expires today...(?)
  • #7,414
  • Apr 20, 2020 8:47am Apr 20, 2020 8:47am
Quoting EG-Invest168
Started loading up on crude oil @ $11.20. Pending orders at $10.30, $10, $9.50, $9, and $8. Stops are pretty wide, but it has to go back up for some retracement. {image}
This is none of my business but current WTI contract (May) will expire today. Next months (June) contract difference is almost 10 USD currently (around 22USD). It depends on the broker, but normally all current positions will be closed or rolled over to next contract with swap which is really enormous at this time.
For my fallen angels.
  • #7,415
  • Apr 20, 2020 9:53am Apr 20, 2020 9:53am
Quoting tonny47
{quote} i think the price of xtiusd will change tomorrow from $18 to $25, but that doesnt mean you would have made $7. It's just because it's being rebased, which is fine but that brings me back to response I posted in my previous post regarding 2011 lows being $17 whether you see 18 dollars today or 25 dollars tomorrow. I would assume that 2011 low would increase in proportion of increase of rollover from May to June
Hey, tonny47. Please help me decode this message, it is concerning the rollover and you seem to be active on the topic about it

I just received this from my broker, IC Markets. Would this mean that your post above is wrong or am I misunderstanding something? I am trading XTIUSD.

===
Thank you very much for contacting IC Markets.
Kindly be advised XTIUSD is not a Futures contract, it is an instruments based on the stop without expiry.
Futures oil contracts are Brent and WTI. You can find information on expiry dates on our website:
https://www.icmarkets.com/au/en/trading-markets/futures
WTI_K0 expires 20-04-2020 .
IC Markets Futures CFDs are set to expire one day before the contract expires on the underlying market. When a Futures CFD contract expires, all open positions will be closed at the futures settlement price; as reported by the futures exchange. This process would usually take place on the day following the expiry. Open positions are not rolled to the next front month so any clients wishing to hold long term positions must reopen the trade on the next available contract.
The new WTI contract is WTI_M0 which expires 18-05-2020 .
===
  • #7,416
  • Apr 20, 2020 10:05am Apr 20, 2020 10:05am
Quoting PrinceCharmy
{quote} Hey, tonny47. Please help me decode this message, it is concerning the rollover and you seem to be active on the topic about it I just received this from my broker, IC Markets. Would this mean that your post above is wrong or am I misunderstanding something? I am trading XTIUSD. === Thank you very much for contacting IC Markets. Kindly be advised XTIUSD is not a Futures contract, it is an instruments based on the stop without expiry. Futures oil contracts are Brent and WTI. You can find information on expiry dates on our website:...
not sure which post are you referring to. If you are referring to the post from EG-Invest then he doesnt seem to be trading XTIUSD.

I am still not sure what the mechanics is for continuous contract XTIUSD - but my understanding is that the price is just going to be rebased to be more or less the same as the June futures price which is something like 6-7 dollars higher than current price. Whilst it shouldnt have impact on your P&L other than usual daily charges, your risk will increase. So if you make or lose say $1000 per each movement in one dollar in XTIUSD, at $17 dollars, if the oil goes to 0 then you would have lost 17k. but once rebased to say 24, you would have been risking 24k. Or perhaps they will adjust your sizing. Honestly, I couldnt get a straight answer from my broker so not 100% sure
  • #7,417
  • Apr 20, 2020 10:20am Apr 20, 2020 10:20am
I was referring to the post I quoted from you That said, my understanding of the XTIUSD would then be that if price changes, I will earn something from it. I am paying daily swaps anyway, which are far from low, so I would assume this is the price paid for it. Of course, I might be totally wrong and a broker pulls a magic trick out of their sleeve

About the rebasing of the price - yes, I understand what impact regarding risk it would bring, since I am willing to trade at 16$-18$ with equaity to bring it down to single digit, but I am not willing to trade at 25$ atm. Anyway, thank you for your time. If you want, I can write down the impact after it is done today Cheers, lets hope for the best outcome.
  • #7,418
  • Apr 20, 2020 10:26am Apr 20, 2020 10:26am
Quoting PrinceCharmy
I was referring to the post I quoted from you That said, my understanding of the XTIUSD would then be that if price changes, I will earn something from it. I am paying daily swaps anyway, which are far from low, so I would assume this is the price paid for it. Of course, I might be totally wrong and a broker pulls a magic trick out of their sleeve About the rebasing of the price - yes, I understand what impact regarding risk it would bring, since I am willing to trade at 16$-18$ with equaity to bring it down to single digit, but...
ah sorry. still not sure how it works with regards to past prices exactly.
but this is the video shared by LI1979 and i think this principle to your equity would apply with continuous contracts so you would not make any money at the back of this increase
Inserted Video


sure please share later today/tomorrow
  • #7,419
  • Apr 20, 2020 10:41am Apr 20, 2020 10:41am
Quoting PrinceCharmy
I was referring to the post I quoted from you That said, my understanding of the XTIUSD would then be that if price changes, I will earn something from it. I am paying daily swaps anyway, which are far from low, so I would assume this is the price paid for it. Of course, I might be totally wrong and a broker pulls a magic trick out of their sleeve About the rebasing of the price - yes, I understand what impact regarding risk it would bring, since I am willing to trade at 16$-18$ with equaity to bring it down to single digit, but...
I had 2 longs one at 25 and other at 23 each trade was 0.05 my swap was -326 euro each trade got charged on market open
  • #7,420
  • Apr 20, 2020 10:59am Apr 20, 2020 10:59am
Quoting patient pip
Hello CL troopers. Overnight prices took a dump. lets see if the day brings some pull back or will be a dull session. I will post taken trades from the room after us session closes. good luck to all
Lost my cable internet connection today...lost my password for FF..got locked out.
Thats about it
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