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  • #13,121
  • Apr 15, 2020 12:17pm Apr 15, 2020 12:17pm
Two quick remarks from my side:

Quoting Ipodbob
EURUSD 5m......
First...
EU in most of the times is poor for 5M trend trading


Second...
Quoting Ipodbob
was away from the screen and missed the correct time to close
Don't leave 5M trades unattended
  • #13,122
  • Apr 16, 2020 2:09am Apr 16, 2020 2:09am
GbpAud 1H Basic PASR

Regards
Pete
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  • #13,123
  • Apr 16, 2020 5:57am Apr 16, 2020 5:57am
Quoting JCMPete
GbpAud 1H Basic PASR Regards Pete {image}
PASR basic is excellent
I am also waiting for a similar transaction on GC
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  • #13,124
  • Apr 16, 2020 6:12am Apr 16, 2020 6:12am
EJ M5 trending: I exit when the buyer enters with a small 1: 1 RR profit
I seldom achieve RR 1: 3, 1: 4 because the price usually follows the saw line and I exit when there are reversing candles BEEB, BUEB (many of them are fake)
Is there any way to distinguish fake BEEB, BUEB candles? (not all, only 1 number)
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  • #13,125
  • Apr 16, 2020 6:49am Apr 16, 2020 6:49am
Quoting DuaCaMamMuoi
{quote} PASR basic is excellent I am also waiting for a similar transaction on GC {image}
Love this chart, which indicator makes these yellow ribbons? sorry im new here
  • #13,126
  • Apr 16, 2020 7:02am Apr 16, 2020 7:02am
Return to page 1, read each page, you will see it along the way
  • #13,127
  • Apr 16, 2020 7:06am Apr 16, 2020 7:06am
Quoting DuaCaMamMuoi
EJ M5 trending: I exit when the buyer enters with a small 1: 1 RR profit I seldom achieve RR 1: 3, 1: 4 because the price usually follows the saw line and I exit when there are reversing candles BEEB, BUEB (many of them are fake) Is there any way to distinguish fake BEEB, BUEB candles? (not all, only 1 number) {image}
GC M5 trend: loser, who can tell me the reason
I should probably pause today so I don't get caught in the M5 wave
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  • #13,128
  • Apr 16, 2020 7:26am Apr 16, 2020 7:26am
Quoting DuaCaMamMuoi
{quote} GC M5 trend: loser, who can tell me the reason I should probably pause today so I don't get caught in the M5 wave {image}
Because there is no TREND.
Choppy fluffy up and down shaking PRICE
  • #13,129
  • Apr 16, 2020 7:30am Apr 16, 2020 7:30am
Quoting DuaCaMamMuoi
EJ M5 trending: I exit when the buyer enters with a small 1: 1 RR profit I seldom achieve RR 1: 3, 1: 4 because the price usually follows the saw line and I exit when there are reversing candles BEEB, BUEB (many of them are fake) Is there any way to distinguish fake BEEB, BUEB candles? (not all, only 1 number) {image}
Good queston. Well it will come with feeling and practise. watch momentum because when momentum is strong traders are trapped in these enngulfs against trend with fake move and then continuing trend. It always depends on situation. Do not worry.

Why did you not exit with hammer at support to maximaze profits? It is beauty )

Anyway nice progress mate!

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  • #13,130
  • Apr 16, 2020 7:42am Apr 16, 2020 7:42am
Quoting Mhons
{quote} Good queston. Well it will come with feeling and practise. watch momentum because when momentum is strong traders are trapped in these enngulfs against trend with fake move and then continuing trend. It always depends on situation. Do not worry. Why did you not exit with hammer at support to maximaze profits? It is beauty ) Anyway nice progress mate! {image}
thank you
Yes, I did see it, I was about to wait for it to drop to about 1/3 of that hammer but it didn't work as I expected, and I changed it out by myself when the M5 candle nearly ended.
I will have to try hard
  • #13,131
  • Apr 17, 2020 7:03am Apr 17, 2020 7:03am
Hi,
Im new to trading and I really like this method. I am trying to draw the support and resistance lines on weekly and daily, however I end up drawing too many lines...can someone who is trading this system please check if I am doing it correctly. The red lines are weekly support/resistance and blue ones are daily.
Thank you very much for your support.
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  • #13,132
  • Apr 17, 2020 7:13am Apr 17, 2020 7:13am
Quoting r-ali
Hi, Im new to trading and I really like this method. I am trying to draw the support and resistance lines on weekly and daily, however I end up drawing too many lines...can someone who is trading this system please check if I am doing it correctly. The red lines are weekly support/resistance and blue ones are daily. Thank you very much for your support. {image}
Start's teaches: take only the top and bottom lines closest to the current price, and don't trade the CHF pair
If you really like it, start from page 1 and read through, you will have it all, it will take at least 2 to 3 months to read and then practice, everyone here will help you like me
  • #13,133
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:58am Apr 17, 2020 9:58am
Quoting DuaCaMamMuoi
{quote} GC M5 trend: loser, who can tell me the reason I should probably pause today so I don't get caught in the M5 wave {image}
Couple of questions comes to my mind when trying to answer your post..

1) Where is your H1 resistance at 1.76314 area. (its pretty obviuos doesn't it. And as Mhons pointed..this is NO M5 trend trading)


If you trade M5 trend then you suppose to add S/R lines from H4,H1 and some times M15. If you follow this then you would have added 1.76314 R level.

If you trading M5 trend then download all the Strat's M5 charts and study M5 trend trading. train your eyes to find proper M5 trend with saw tooth blade structure . with PRICE pull back to strat shadow.

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Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #13,134
  • Edited 8:48am Apr 19, 2020 5:55am | Edited 8:48am
Quoting BeyondTheSea
RR & Risk Since there have been a couple of questions on risk and RR theory, this is what I do: {image} See this latest loss. My entry has a fairly high "initial" SL of 25 pips. This is worse case scenerio and I'm looking to keep it moving. So I don't get the breakthough after the reload on my first trades. I can close at a small profit, BE or keep scouting for the move. I move my SL to where I will see when the trade is wrong. So it ends up been -6 pips which is ok with me. This theory of RR further confuses when you factor in multiple entries...
Quoting Hickson
{quote} One of the biggest problems on the way to becoming a professional trader imho. How often did I put on a trade where I wanted to "learn discipline" and then stubbornly stuck with it, because it was 10 pips shy of the 250 pip target! Guess what happened ... it reversed and even took out the sl for a loss! But hey, at least you stuck with your set&forget approach, clap your hands! But you LOST money! Had I just ignored this guru teaching earlier, I'd close out a ton of trades earlier in PROFIT because the market told me so and not some guru...
Regarding: Reward to Risk Ratio (RRR) and Set & Forget Approach

I want to add something to both of the above quoted and brillant texts.

During my backtests I started wondering if I could just use a fixed RRR system and therefore have like a set and forget approach.

As I was experimenting with both volatility based stops and also breakeven/close after X candles systems I came up with an excel sheet that analyses the outcome of my systems if they would have been performing better when having a fixed RRR.

TL;DR fixed RRR systems are marginally less profitable - at least for the data that I have went through (and that are years of data on M5 to M30). As said many times: the market just doesn't care about any RRR of any person - it just does what it does.

Details

In my backtesting software I am able to see the maximum favorable excursion (MFE) and maximum adverse excursion (MAE).
Just two terms that mean the following:
- what was my maximum equity during a specific trade (if you can catch that point on every trade, you would be a superhero).
- what was my minimum equity during a specific trade (drawdown)

With those two parameters I can analyze how my system would have performed for several different R systems.

Simple example
We have a 100k USD trading account, risk 0.65% per trade. We enter our first trade which had the following output:
- min equity: -450 USD (so we were in drawdown)
- max equity: 850 USD
- outcome 650 USD (SL got hit according to my trailing stop).

I can now compare, how the outcome of the trade would have been for several R systems.

A 0.5R system would have given us a profit of 325 USD (minus commissions).
A 1R system would have given us a profit of 650 USD (minus commissions).
A 1.5R system would have given us - and that is now the tricky part - the amount were my stop got hit, so 650 USD.

I have setup an excel for this, where I am able to just copy my order history.
The excel consists of:

  1. the Order History
  2. the Matrix of every trade outcome for each R system
  3. the Analyzation page
  4. the equity graph of just the "real" system

Order History

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Matrix
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Analyze

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What you can see is: the lower the R-factor the higher the win %. But as you can see, none of the fixed R-factor systems (highest score is 27% for a 1.2R system) comes close to my real system that uses volatility based stops (53% profit).

Also: if I want to shoot for the moon trades with a 6R outcome - I would actually have lost money (-25%)

Equity Graph
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Just for completeness: this specific backtest was on M30, GU from 01 Feb 2018 to 17 July 2018.

And just to give another interesting insight because often you think as a trader "I am leaving soo much money on the table" - that is also something I need to get used to.

On the above system, the outcome in the backtest was 53% profit in 5.5 months = 52.720,68 EUR profit. If summarizing all max equities for each trade, the result would be 164.740,68 EUR profit.
That means: I have left about 2/3 of my potential profits on the table.

Be aware: those are just MY conclusions based on MY testings. Handle with care, it might be a candle with hair.

Attached Image


If you are using FT3/4 and want to get some insights in your backtest, let me know. I hope you might get something useful out of this post.
Accept the risk!
  • #13,135
  • Edited 7:23am Apr 19, 2020 7:10am | Edited 7:23am
Quoting Scrumy
{quote} {quote} Regarding: Reward to Risk Ratio (RRR) and Set & Forget Approach I want to add something to both of the above quoted and brillant texts. During my backtests I started wondering if I could just use a fixed RRR system and therefore have like a set and forget approach. As I was experimenting with both volatility based stops and also breakeven/close after X candles systems I came up with an excel sheet that analyses the outcome of my systems if they would have been performing better when having a fixed RRR. TL;DR fixed RRR systems are...
Good that I said "handle with care". I discovered a bug in my excel. With the fixed version the numbers now don't differ that much as in my initial post. I will update the above post and strike through what is now proven wrong.
Accept the risk!
  • #13,136
  • Edited 7:59am Apr 19, 2020 7:31am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting Scrumy
{quote} Good that I said "handle with care". I discovered a bug in my excel. With the fixed version the numbers now don't differ that much as in my initial post. I will update the above post and strike through what is now proven wrong.
Now the numbers in the post are correct. Sorry for not checking the numbers initially for its full correctness.
I might have introduced a bug while analyzing a breakeven system. The bug was this: when not reaching the desired R-factor the system would exit at the breakeven point minus commissions. But as I am using the volatility based stop loss we will get out of the trade at the stop of the real system.

The real system produces a profit of 53% where now the most profitable fixed RRR system of 6R would have given us 49% profit (Edit: commissions are not considered currently for my R factors - with that system commisions would cost us about 3400 USD, resulting in around 46% profit). The difference isn't that significant anymore. What my system also shows: as I reduce my risk by tightening the stops the loosers get cut, and winners are free to run.

Despite having the numbers initially wrong, the post still contains other useful informations.
Accept the risk!
  • #13,137
  • Apr 19, 2020 8:54pm Apr 19, 2020 8:54pm
Not so much to add to the discussion of risk reward and stops, but this morning I had a excellent example of the sort of setup I look for. This is the one minute chart, but it applies to all time frames. Beautiful clear first pull back.

Accidentally posted this same one in the old thread, meant to post it here.
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  • #13,138
  • Apr 20, 2020 7:28am Apr 20, 2020 7:28am
start the new week, 1 failure on the learning path
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  • #13,139
  • Apr 20, 2020 8:17am Apr 20, 2020 8:17am
Quoting DuaCaMamMuoi
start the new week, 1 failure on the learning path {image}
Here are footsteps. Why you entered against your marked Support when PRICE stopped going down and starting distribution after 120 pips move?

You came late at party


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  • #13,140
  • Apr 20, 2020 9:05am Apr 20, 2020 9:05am
Quoting Mhons
{quote} Here are footsteps. Why you entered against your marked Support when PRICE stopped going down and starting distribution after 120 pips move? You came late at party {image}
maybe I have to see an eye doctor tomorrow, my eyesight is blind
Thanks for your advice ^^
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