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Plan the Trade

  • #12,821
  • Apr 9, 2020 9:38am Apr 9, 2020 9:38am
when i discovered the 123 pattern 10 years ago and did a back test with the rules i put in place it was 65+% so putting on trades was a no brainer. in june was messing around and for some reason took the wicks off and back tested that the win rate rose to 75+% so again a no brainer. so you can do what i do or you develop something else with rules in place and if you find something that does 65% just put them on
  • #12,822
  • Apr 9, 2020 10:54am Apr 9, 2020 10:54am
managed a plus 6 this morning, volatility picked up after a lull. saw one setup I didn't have to(or want to) chase. had a plus 2T yesterday on trailing stop.
have been watching at or after the ny lunch hour, volatility seems to die down for a bit allowing for a few more possible entries for those of us with
smaller stops/limits.
good luck
regards
goma
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  • #12,823
  • Apr 9, 2020 12:46pm Apr 9, 2020 12:46pm
picked up another 6T on one trade. vix seemed to slow a bit, but I suspect it to pickup ahead of the 3 day weekend. regarding the "wickless" style
of charting for 1-2-3s, I use just high-low bars (they include the wicks) on my graphs. I was never a fan of candles, thought the wicks could
be misleading, for me anyways. originally used OHLC, moved to HL then to a line graph back when I traded forex. Was swing trading, so had
much more time on the higher time frames to look at things like vol profiles,vwap etc etc. finally determined it was all noise. there just isn't time
on a 20sec chart for me to look at anything other than spotting 1-2-3s and HH,HL or LH,LLs. once in a while if there is sideways action,
wait for a potential ross hook setup to grab T's on the retrace. back testing on this one for me has been pretty good 81%. just requires me
to be patient (slightly less caffeinated).
one other point to Capstone, I did take a look at amp's charges for micro's and they are costing me
.78cents roundtrip including all charges including cqg charge per entry etc., slightly more than 1 1/2T. I don't know if these are taken off of
my monthly cqg access fee, I doubt it so I would just divide number of trades say 20 trades for 5/month fee adding one T per trade. more trades
less cost. definately not 5T per round trip trading micros on amp, although at least 50% more proportionately per trade.
happy easter and happy pesach
good luck
regards
goma
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  • #12,824
  • Edited 11:48am Apr 10, 2020 10:22am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting goma
picked up another 6T on one trade. vix seemed to slow a bit, but I suspect it to pickup ahead of the 3 day weekend. regarding the "wickless" style of charting for 1-2-3s, I use just high-low bars (they include the wicks) on my graphs. I was never a fan of candles, thought the wicks could be misleading, for me anyways. originally used OHLC, moved to HL then to a line graph back when I traded forex. Was swing trading, so had much more time on the higher time frames to look at things like vol profiles,vwap etc etc. finally determined it was all noise....
Just come in from reading in the sunshine outside and come across your chart.
Elsewhere, on FF, saw a new system/approach to using 123:
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=985306
and it struck me that your way of drawing bars makes reading the 123 much quicker his (Dazjw2311) charts.
Nice charts Goma.

EDIT : Of course you realise I now have another project ( reading your type of charts) - one is always learning
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #12,825
  • Apr 10, 2020 12:19pm Apr 10, 2020 12:19pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Just come in from reading in the sunshine outside and come across your chart. Elsewhere, on FF, saw a new system/approach to using 123: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=985306 and it struck me that your way of drawing bars makes reading the 123 much quicker his (Dazjw2311) charts. Nice charts Goma. EDIT : Of course you realise I now have another project ( reading your type of charts) - one is always learning
cheers T. sounds like the weather is pretty nice there. love the desert this time of year. at any rate, read a number of the posts on the above linked
thread. very interesting approach using a 4th candle as your entry level trigger. he trades mostly on the higher time frames so "breathing room"
allows for more chances for trading the breakouts and trend following. on the sub minute timeframes, especially given the recent market conditions,
I would call his 4th candle a ross hook. I am doing something similar, only I wait for a congestion level to form, exhaustion if you will. I also have
been waiting until right at or after the ny lunch hour when volatility seems to get down to an almost reasonable level. once I see these conditions,
if they form, I'll look for trades. I am attaching a chart and couple of paragraphs from law of the charts which may help out. I am basically looking/anticipating
that the sideways action will continue a bit longer and selling/buying the retrace of the ross hook described below. main liability so far is it in fact
a breakout and I get stopped, or my own weakness of an early closed possibly depriving me of a full limit plus 16T. my trailing stop runs to
plus 2T once up 8T. I may play around with this moving the trailing stop to plus 5-6-7 to see what happens. I'll post results.
good luck
regards
goma
note: I treat the breakdown and breakout notes on the 2B graph as ross hooks
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  • #12,826
  • Apr 10, 2020 8:19pm Apr 10, 2020 8:19pm
Thats a great post G.
In fact, i have just recently seen these 1,2,3's that Divergence has talked about for years in a new light.
Maybe more on this later . . . .
  • #12,827
  • Apr 13, 2020 8:20am Apr 13, 2020 8:20am
Quoting bapakjason
Thats a great post G. In fact, i have just recently seen these 1,2,3's that Divergence has talked about for years in a new light. Maybe more on this later . . . .
Careful with those ross hooks man, they are like everything else - best framed in a when/why context. Jus 'sayin
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #12,828
  • Apr 13, 2020 9:48am Apr 13, 2020 9:48am
Quoting onejester
{quote} Careful with those ross hooks man, they are like everything else - best framed in a when/why context. Jus 'sayin
agreed. not great under all conditions, just have to wait for the right opportunity. tried a few entries, and missed this morning, volatility/market conditons
way too wild at the moment, 20-40T moves on the 20sec. will wait for the ny lunch hour to see it it dies down. as an aside, AMP lowered daytrading
margin fees to normal levels so I can see back to e-mini's in the near future. attached agraph to show what I have been looking at, structure-wise
in regards to RH's etc.
good luck,
regards
goma
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  • #12,829
  • Apr 13, 2020 12:12pm Apr 13, 2020 12:12pm
Quoting goma
{quote} AMP lowered daytrading
margin fees to normal levels {image}

That's good news. UK bank holiday today, so I haven't bothered. Still got the Mark Douglas thing in my head, but it ain't gonna be a walk in the park . Lets see how we go for the rest of the week.
'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #12,830
  • Apr 13, 2020 12:20pm Apr 13, 2020 12:20pm
yeah, light vol's today. did just see one setup at the end of the ny lunch hour, made plus 12. I also experimented with moving my trailing stop up to plus 7 when it hits plus 9. amp shows I closed "by trailing stop" at plus 12 so I am guessing low liquidity (5 extra T for me). still lots of testing this setup
once the world gets back to trading. all trades have been live btw so I don't get reckless with my entries.
good luck
regards
goma
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  • #12,831
  • Apr 13, 2020 8:14pm Apr 13, 2020 8:14pm
Quoting onejester
{quote} Careful with those ross hooks man, they are like everything else - best framed in a when/why context. Jus 'sayin
Its not the ross hooks that are catching my attention. Its the pullbacks back into a bigger trend, but not a simple pullback . . . Let's say its a bullish trend, price begins pulling back and makes a 2B short or 123 short THEN looking for price to go bullish again. CG had one example on the very first post. I had always overlooked it. I am seeing a lot of this type thing . . . .

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  • #12,832
  • Apr 14, 2020 8:46am Apr 14, 2020 8:46am
'Git you some of that...
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'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #12,833
  • Apr 15, 2020 9:25am Apr 15, 2020 9:25am
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Become the casino
  • #12,834
  • Apr 15, 2020 9:39am Apr 15, 2020 9:39am
outstanding trades E. J you caught a good one yesterday. still experimenting with my "setups" and stops. began with a minus 14T yesterday
tried to recover plus 2 and plus 5, but was not to be. still testing my setups. of about 16trades on this recently, 4 losers of which 2
were plainly stupid entries. the other 2 just demonstrating fallibility, which I am more interested in demonstrating. tis morning, changed things up
a bit, increased the bracket to 15T stop and 25Tlimit/profit. added a couple of stages of trailing stops plus 2 at plus 6, plus 7 at plus 12 and
plus 12 at plus 16. took one trade early for plus 25T. actually got to watch the trailing stops move up on the screen. we'll see how it goes,
larger sample size needed.
good luck
regards
goma
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  • #12,835
  • Apr 15, 2020 10:44am Apr 15, 2020 10:44am
Some losses today, but I'm ok with it. After the 1st 2, pa was awful from my perspective. And then although you can't see it the chart was awful on the left (which was a warning sign). In hindsight I should have stayed at it yesterday and tried a couple more because the contrast in between then and today was a mile apart.
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'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
  • #12,836
  • Apr 15, 2020 12:40pm Apr 15, 2020 12:40pm
couple more trades while I thought the vix was a bit subdued. firt loss of 15T on stop, chalk it up to mostly stupidity should have seen it wanted to blow past
8550, second one worked out plus 8, closed by trailing stop. then kept at it missing at least 5 entries both long and short. vix has picked up
in to the 40's again making entries tricky. prefer it in low 30's or less. that's it for the day.
good luck
regards
goma
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  • #12,837
  • Apr 15, 2020 1:19pm Apr 15, 2020 1:19pm
Quoting erasmus66
{image}
your first trade was a 2b so that 123 was invalid i had the next 2 trades also
  • #12,838
  • Apr 15, 2020 2:16pm Apr 15, 2020 2:16pm
Quoting Divergence
{quote} your first trade was a 2b so that 123 was invalid i had the next 2 trades also
ok thanks Harold .. so disgard 123's following 2b's that break, e.g.

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and keep 123's following 2b's that don't break, e.g.

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Become the casino
  • #12,839
  • Apr 15, 2020 9:21pm Apr 15, 2020 9:21pm
Quoting erasmus66
{quote} ok thanks Harold .. so disgard 123's following 2b's that break, e.g. {image} and keep 123's following 2b's that don't break, e.g. {image}
correct 2b just tells us trend has changed
  • #12,840
  • Apr 16, 2020 10:27am Apr 16, 2020 10:27am
-5 More character building than money making today. The initial drawdown took some steel, had to dig deep... Red & Green Lines are where I shoulda, but didn't. Not through fear, but lack of concentration. I wanted to cry at that bottom trade, but that's the game

Hope the rest of you did better.

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'in less than half an hour he made over 100 ticks'
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