WTI Crude Oil Trading

Monthly support levels based on CL continuous current contract

Oil market is very dead. Very strange almost like the calm before the storm

OIL si so strange right now that It is a coin-flip, at least in short/daily timeframe, if you ask me... I mean, have been repeating that I will be jumping on the BUY side but... should wait for the mess to come through, either way... or ride only the smaller timeframes that are much less affected with(in) the trend... if there is any at all... Right now it is a mess... or at least I do not see the picture right now... I mean EU is slowly restarting, some hopes in the horizon etc.. at least some parts that looked almost hopeless... they cut (a bit, yes).. Saudis need the money since this is their main income and they surely do not look to "scale down" anything... They miscalculated thinking they can starve RU to death with this poker... RU just said "come at me bro"... and it seems they do not care... US can benefit with buying/storing/option it at this prices but their production right now seems like a heavy subsidised "farming" In fact, it might be better to subside farmers, to have better food instead of subsidising something you can get (the same or even better) for half the price... And yes, there was drop in demand but CN, EU seems restoring slowly but surely... US has situation right now but if they will have to decide between... will they choose MONEY/PROFITS over SECURITY? I am just asking, you should answer to yourself I would bet on OIL still, but after this mess rolls out which I think can be out in less than a week or let's seriously earn while they are in the standoff... BTW do you guys remember times when they would put you in strap jacket if you would mention this prices? They are funny AF... aren't we suppose to be out of oil, population, consumption growing like crazy etc... It just doesn't add up... I think either something is holding the SURGE, strongly... or we will see the oil business, as we know it, change dramatically... I do not believe this "QUO" can persist long without some serious consequences... so would bet on either SLIDE down for 3m or BUY SIDE (still my favourite)... Will decide within 3 working days... So on Monday, most probably...



https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/F...rt_Treemap.png

I’m not shorting this move. Something doesn’t seem right

I second that... If I have learned anything in trading is that when in doubt, there is no doubt...


Or in trading words/terms.. "Know when not to trade"..

HAHA, which reminds me, this is exactly how I would describe current WTI situation... AMBUSH! ;D Not falling for the possible BEAR TRAP...

Monthly/Daily/H4 support level. Although the spike to the 20 area was most likely caused by market makers pumping price before EIA.

Other futures seems tanking compared to current contract.

It is funny, the situation already has a WIKI https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_R..._oil_price_war
They still argue who started it but judging from above source it seems clear, right? So who is wrong? Have noticed some are very upset with this talk but are we not here for TRADING on it? This is trading forum I believe, do not understand why some care for anything else than to get money/profits out of this, trading it... I am completely apolitical (here)... just want to harvest/trade most of it, that is all...

Don't fool yourself by the geopolitical games being played at the moment just keep tracking supply, demand and storage facility levels. It's all about the fundamentals at the moment they dictate the markets.

Ok, so by your below 3 posts, combined with above interpretation, it should fall like a brick now, for at least a month?

1. https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...0#post12875840
2. https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...8#post12877438
3. https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...9#post12871869

https://www.energyexch.com/blob:http...a-fe017c0d0b8b


S/R levels working nice.

I'm not an expert and i'm willing to hold until it works out, i'm still building position and not closing until it reach 45USD. Chart is from BRENT OIL.
Since i'm located in Europe i can confirm, that EU countries start to discuss reopening the economy and everything shall start in May. By small steps next week reopens small businesses etc.

Demand in Europe shall start end of April / beg May.

If you follow Coronavirus cases each day you can see that Europe is already after peak (except GB, they are no longer in EU and they started later to see CV hitting the country).

cheers

Agree.
Some 1 month ago I wrote, that long-term it will go up. In the meantime I've averaged the long position and managed to get out at about 26-27 with relatively small profit (keeping the best trade at 19,60 - now it is about 0). Lucky me
Now I'm not so sure if Mr Margin will allow to keep Long (eventually it WILL go up - but I don't like long long long term).
I can miss north train... but now I still don't see it. Even if I miss start of a big move, I can earn on daytrading, when fundamentals improve.

Spreads between monthly contracts are narrowing

I don't say it will fall like a brick but the next 2 weeks their wont be any floor under the market (as in big production cuts). Currently supply exceeds demand clearly resulting in lower prices. As Kwame Freder already mentioned this extraordinary situation might last longer than we might think.
In worst case scenarios storage facilities run out of space than the shit really hits the fan and their might be single digit prices and i don't like people to lose money.


In the best case scenarios demand from China and Europe (probably in May) start to increase combined with OPEC+ and G20 cuts and were recovering.

Covid19 still stays the unknown variable.

All i wanna do is warn people not to get burned by thinking WTI is cheap and losing huge amounts of money. Like you i want to perfect my timing buying WTI.

WTI oil daily chart update.

if this is realy true, then 20$ per barrel is fine for most oil indutry to survive?

the graph only shows operating expenditure.

with offshore, drilling equipment cost is very high (which is capital expenditure not shown in your graph) and could amount to as much as 90% of an oil producer's total investment.