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Trade Outside the Box (TOTB)

  • #461
  • Apr 10, 2020 3:59am Apr 10, 2020 3:59am
Quoting Degolep
{quote} The problem is the way the explanation was where the box should be. It would be way more simple if we would know how many hours before London open we should draw the box. Because London open starts all year at the same time, so you just adjust the box when time savings comes 2x a year. @Emma7788-FAN can you once and for all finish this doubts about the box. How many hours before London open should we draw the box? Is it 2h or 1h or?
just read all thread. not only 1 page. go again and again. not everyone know how to think and read. read and read and read and you ill get it
it explained 10 times here how to set up
  • #462
  • Apr 10, 2020 4:11am Apr 10, 2020 4:11am
Nice comment
  • #463
  • Apr 10, 2020 6:36am Apr 10, 2020 6:36am
TOTB 06:01-09:59 GMT

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 70 KB
ENJOY YOUR TRADE
  • #464
  • Apr 10, 2020 11:55am Apr 10, 2020 11:55am
My broker is in GMT+3 zone. Hohw do I set it up in indicator now. And How do I set it up in the next Day light savings. Thanks so much
  • #465
  • Apr 10, 2020 4:36pm Apr 10, 2020 4:36pm
Quoting jado911
{quote} Personally I don't work in time domain, I use the Laplace transform to work in the S domain; no GMT there!
totb v0.8 is very good. can you set slfactor 1 for stop loos
totb v0.8 is very good. can you set slfactor 1 for stop loos
  • #466
  • Apr 10, 2020 5:28pm Apr 10, 2020 5:28pm
Quoting pointlessfor
{quote} you have to changed box when you think it can changed. forex price changed. you need to think where you can changed your box .. look for patterns like H&S , triple tops , triangles. if it is trend then follow it.
hahaha... no comments
  • #467
  • Apr 10, 2020 5:39pm Apr 10, 2020 5:39pm
Quoting pointlessfor
{quote} you have to changed box when you think it can changed. forex price changed. you need to think where you can changed your box .. look for patterns like H&S , triple tops , triangles. if it is trend then follow it.
Yes, comments...

Change the f****ing box? Wow....it is funny...just stuff patterns into it...
  • #468
  • Apr 11, 2020 6:25am Apr 11, 2020 6:25am
Ok, so I've refined my EA that gave me the results I posted earlier in this thread. I adjusted the money management rules, because initially I was just going with a single unit, and a 1:1 R/R. This time, just as the rules state, I have 2 units (one for each TP), with a 0.5% risk on each unit (so risking 1% per trade).

Just to give an idea, here are what the results would be for this week, on the 3 pairs mentioned on the first page (GU, GJ, UJ):

- RESULTS GBPUSD FOR PAST WEEK:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU- W1.PNG Size: 55 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU - W1Result.PNG Size: 16 KB


- RESULTS GBPJPY FOR PAST WEEK:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ - W1.PNG Size: 64 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ - W1Result.PNG Size: 15 KB


- RESULTS USDJPY FOR PAST WEEK:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ - W1.PNG Size: 64 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ - W1Result.PNG Size: 14 KB


So overall a pretty meh week, averaging -0.3R over those 3 pairs.
  • #469
  • Apr 11, 2020 7:16am Apr 11, 2020 7:16am
Following my analysis for what the results would be for the current week, by following exactly what the rules state on the first page of this thread, I decided to backtest for the whole year of 2019, on both GBPUSD and GBPJPY.

Again, through my EA just following the rules: break of the box, 2 targets, moving SL to BE when half the target is reached, etc...

So, what would have been the results if you followed exactly that strategy through 2019?

- RESULTS GBPUSD 2019:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU - 2019.PNG Size: 16 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU - 2019Report.PNG Size: 46 KB


- RESULTS GBPJPY 2019:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: StrategyTester UJ.gif Size: 9 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ - 2019Report.PNG Size: 38 KB


As you can see (and not very surprisingly), in both cases the equity curve is sloping down, in other words it's a losing strategy. (Same goes on other pairs BTW).
Let's have a look at a portion of the GU curve, where it takes a deep dive around half way:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: other.png Size: 14 KB


Here's what it looks like on the chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Example loss.PNG Size: 52 KB


As you can see, it's simply 6 consecutive losses, where price breaks out of the box, to finally go the other way without even reaching the first TP. A few times it gets real close, but that's just the reality of trading.
So you might think, well 6 losses isn't the end of the world, and of course it isn't. Any strategy will have losing streaks, and here I just picked an example out of 115 trades for the year. Which brings me to the reason its expectancy is negative:

The biggest weakness of this strategy is it's money management. More specifically, it's R:R ratio. I've hinted at it in a previous post, but nobody has pointed it out, so here it is in graphical terms:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MM Exampleb.png Size: 61 KB


A typical trade: Price has broken out of the box, so good for a long. But what many don't realise, is that you risk 60 pips to make 20 pips!! That's for the first unit of the trade, for the second you risk the same 60pips to make 45pips.
So in an ideal trade where you enter at the top of the box (which never happens), you get AT BEST 0.75R (let's say you risk 1%). Again, that never happens because the entry is always above / below the box, so the actual best case is actually less than that.
When it goes just to TP1, you get 0.25R.
When you lose, you get -1R.
So even with a positive winrate (GU has around 60% in 2019), you still lose money.
And that's money management 101, but for some reason people don't like to point out the obvious.

My thoughts are, if you were to make this strategy actually successful in the long run, you have to tweak the SL / TP rules, or else it just doesn't work.
  • #470
  • Apr 11, 2020 10:15am Apr 11, 2020 10:15am
Quoting Barraka
Following my analysis for what the results would be for the current week, by following exactly what the rules state on the first page of this thread, I decided to backtest for the whole year of 2019, on both GBPUSD and GBPJPY. Again, through my EA just following the rules: break of the box, 2 targets, moving SL to BE when half the target is reached, etc... So, what would have been the results if you followed exactly that strategy through 2019? - RESULTS GBPUSD 2019: {image} {image} - RESULTS GBPJPY 2019: {image} {image} As you can see (and not very...
Barraka, check your PM
  • #471
  • Edited 5:29am Apr 12, 2020 4:26am | Edited 5:29am
Quoting Barraka
Following my analysis for what the results would be for the current week, by following exactly what the rules state on the first page of this thread, I decided to backtest for the whole year of 2019, on both GBPUSD and GBPJPY. Again, through my EA just following the rules: break of the box, 2 targets, moving SL to BE when half the target is reached, etc... So, what would have been the results if you followed exactly that strategy through 2019? - RESULTS GBPUSD 2019: {image} {image} - RESULTS GBPJPY 2019: {image} {image} As you can see (and not very...
You therefore only have to reverse the orders as well as the TP in SL and SL in TP but you will have to subtract the spread multiplied by the size of the positions multiplied by the number of orders and the final result will also be ... negative ... and back to square one !
  • #472
  • Apr 12, 2020 4:37am Apr 12, 2020 4:37am
Quoting pointlessfor
{quote} you have to changed box when you think it can changed. forex price changed. you need to think where you can changed your box .. look for patterns like H&S , triple tops , triangles. if it is trend then follow it.
All that you mentioned, it's discretionary

Not what she is share or teach here

The post is like your name, pointless

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #473
  • Apr 12, 2020 4:33pm Apr 12, 2020 4:33pm
Quoting transmat
{quote} You therefore only have to reverse the orders as well as the TP in SL and SL in TP but you will have to subtract the spread multiplied by the size of the positions multiplied by the number of orders and the final result will also be ... negative ... and back to square one !
Sure

And BTW, the old "if a strategy doesn't work, just take the opposite trades" doesn't work my friend, or else we'd all be millionnaires .
  • #474
  • Apr 14, 2020 12:40pm Apr 14, 2020 12:40pm
Hi

Very quiet on here??

Please could someone help me out with a position size calculator Mt4. Thank you
  • #475
  • Apr 14, 2020 1:17pm Apr 14, 2020 1:17pm
Quoting Wyrebill
Hi Very quiet on here?? Please could someone help me out with a position size calculator Mt4. Thank you
this thread is dead.
  • #476
  • Apr 14, 2020 1:49pm Apr 14, 2020 1:49pm
Quoting pointlessfor
{quote} this thread is dead.
Just say ""Serious people have graduated🎓""🤑
  • #477
  • Apr 14, 2020 3:19pm Apr 14, 2020 3:19pm
Quoting Wyrebill
Hi Very quiet on here?? Please could someone help me out with a position size calculator Mt4. Thank you
sure, here is FREE demo

https://www.mql5.com/ru/market/product/30855
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #478
  • Apr 14, 2020 3:29pm Apr 14, 2020 3:29pm
Erebus



Many thanks
  • #479
  • Apr 14, 2020 3:51pm Apr 14, 2020 3:51pm
Quoting Wyrebill
Erebus Many thanks
A free one i use on my live account. Very comprehensive.

https://www.earnforex.com/position-size-calculator/
  • #480
  • Apr 14, 2020 5:57pm Apr 14, 2020 5:57pm
The system is successful but each pair has different hours.only certain time interval is wrong.I am using gbp usd 8: 00-9: 00 eurusd 7:00-8:00. martingel is indispensable. martingel is harmful but must be used correctly
the system is successful but each pair has different hours
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