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Let's Trade Options

  • #17,501
  • Edited 2:12pm Apr 13, 2020 12:08pm | Edited 2:12pm
I'll be looking at AAL and CCL later this week for Jun and later expiration dates, and have some Hail Mary Bids out on both. I think we will have some more downward movement in the DJIA this week to about 22500 level, possibly down to the 22100 level. I think that once we get some more info about opening back up the country, we will see some big increases, so this may be the last remaining dip to buy cheap for a while....
  • #17,502
  • Apr 13, 2020 6:01pm Apr 13, 2020 6:01pm
Quoting moneymaker2
I'll be looking at AAL and CCL later this week for Jun and later expiration dates, and have some Hail Mary Bids out on both. I think we will have some more downward movement in the DJIA this week to about 22500 level, possibly down to the 22100 level. I think that once we get some more info about opening back up the country, we will see some big increases, so this may be the last remaining dip to buy cheap for a while....
we have the "opening" buzz on one hand and crummy earnings coming in for the next 2-3 weeks on the other. Sounds like a recipe for volatility.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,503
  • Apr 14, 2020 10:18am Apr 14, 2020 10:18am
bot a XLF put fly Apr24 $19/20/21 for 10c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,504
  • Apr 14, 2020 1:58pm Apr 14, 2020 1:58pm
In the following:

SPY Apr24 270 PUT @ $2.70

Should be good for a little money....
  • #17,505
  • Apr 15, 2020 10:45am Apr 15, 2020 10:45am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} we have the "opening" buzz on one hand and crummy earnings coming in for the next 2-3 weeks on the other. Sounds like a recipe for volatility.
...interesting to see how this will play out. I am buying out of USO spread short legs as oil craters. Resurgence of oil prices obvious now going to take plenty time. Any more long oil plays I entered will be anchored towards the end of the year or further.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,506
  • Apr 15, 2020 11:48am Apr 15, 2020 11:48am
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following: SPY Apr24 270 PUT @ $2.70 Should be good for a little money....
Out of the following not long after the open:

SPY Apr24 270 PUT @ $5.15 up from $2.70

A goodly amount of coin......
  • #17,507
  • Apr 15, 2020 12:41pm Apr 15, 2020 12:41pm
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following: USO Oct16 5 CALL @ $0.95 I figured four months more time for $0.20 more than the Jun19 option is a good trade-off. Should be good for some money by then......
Added to the following:

USO Oct16 5 CALL @ $0.35, brings the average down to $0.64

I think Oct is time for the oil prices to catch up with production reduction, especially when demand starts picking up as the economy slowly comes back to life...
  • #17,508
  • Apr 15, 2020 7:22pm Apr 15, 2020 7:22pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Added to the following: USO Oct16 5 CALL @ $0.35, brings the average down to $0.64 I think Oct is time for the oil prices to catch up with production reduction, especially when demand starts picking up as the economy slowly comes back to life...
...yeah I am looking to add to long calls this month and I am anchoring out to Jan '21, USO $7 to $10 and I will sell nearer calls on the way up. I thot the SA OPEC+ "deal" would pop prices but I was wrong, bulls will have to wait for actual demand to come back.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,509
  • Apr 16, 2020 9:27am Apr 16, 2020 9:27am
Bot OIL calendar calls @ $7, Jun/Sep, for 11c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,510
  • Apr 16, 2020 9:29am Apr 16, 2020 9:29am
moneymaker style, bot SPY Apr20 $281 calls for $2.15.....will take quick profit or sell the $281 Apr17 calls for $2+
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,511
  • Apr 16, 2020 10:30am Apr 16, 2020 10:30am
Quoting The Fool
moneymaker style, bot SPY Apr20 $281 calls for $2.15.....will take quick profit or sell the $281 Apr17 calls for $2+
Already $1+ in profit....good call!!
  • #17,512
  • Apr 16, 2020 10:31am Apr 16, 2020 10:31am
took it off for $1.10 net....buys groceries for a month
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,513
  • Apr 16, 2020 10:38am Apr 16, 2020 10:38am
Good job, TF!

I've got bids in for Jun18 AAL Call at 115 an116....see which one gets hit first....
  • #17,514
  • Apr 16, 2020 1:12pm Apr 16, 2020 1:12pm
Decided to get in the May AAL instead. So in the following:

AAL May15 114 CALL @ $0.82
  • #17,515
  • Apr 16, 2020 9:00pm Apr 16, 2020 9:00pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Decided to get in the May AAL instead. So in the following: AAL May15 114 CALL @ $0.82
...with AAL trading at $11.xx today, I'm not following this....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,516
  • Apr 16, 2020 10:54pm Apr 16, 2020 10:54pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...with AAL trading at $11.xx today, I'm not following this....?
Right now there is a lot of chatter about 1) reopening the economy (businesses) 2) a fourth round of stimulus, and 3) possibly reaching the peak on the Covid-19 for this wave, anyway. If we get some good news on the Covid-19 fight (like we have with the new drug trial), the markets will pop, even for just a day or so. Since a rising tide (usually) lifts all boats, AAL will most likely move up, too, since all the airline info is already out there and priced into the stock.

Now, since these are straight CALLS, the price doesn't have to actually reach $15 to be profitable, and should be profitable within a few days, maybe even tomorrow. Let's say it moves up to ~$13 where it was just a few days ago....depending on the speed of that move, that would bump the option price up to maybe $1.82+ or $1+ per share profit. Might not sound like a lot, but say you have a hundred contracts, that's $10K+ profit! But let's say it only goes up to $12 when we have a good day....that's still going to bump the option price up an additional $0.20-$0.70 (again, depending on the speed)....and that is $2K-$7K profit. Either way you slice it, that's good bread! (sorry, couldn't resist that one...)

I pay very little attention to the actual expiration date. I just purchase something out far enough to make the move I am predicting but close enough to still be able to buy the options cheap.

Tomorrow looks like it might be a big up day, so if that is the case and AAL jumps up, too, I'll take my money and be happy and not have to worry about what's going to happen over the weekend.....
  • #17,517
  • Apr 17, 2020 8:16am Apr 17, 2020 8:16am
I meant I questioned the strike ...$114...when AAL traded at $11.xx...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,518
  • Apr 17, 2020 8:26am Apr 17, 2020 8:26am
Quoting moneymaker2
Decided to get in the May AAL instead. So in the following: AAL May15 114 CALL @ $0.82
Correction: I am in the following:

AAL May15 14 CALL @ $0.82 rather than 114 CALL....not sure if you can even buy a 114 CALL now....
  • #17,519
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:09am Apr 17, 2020 9:09am
Out of the following:

AAL May15 14 CALL @ $1.02 up from $0.82

A quick little profit. I have some lower Bids back in AAL for different months and different strikes, so maybe they will get hit today....
  • #17,520
  • Apr 17, 2020 11:18am Apr 17, 2020 11:18am
USO news....

"Commencing on April 17, 2020, and until further notice and market conditions and regulatory conditions permit otherwise, USO intends to invest approximately 80% of its portfolio in crude oil futures contracts on the NYMEX and ICE Futures in the front month contract and approximately 20% of its portfolio in crude oil futures contracts on the NYMEX and ICE Futures in the second month contract, except when the front month contract is within two weeks of expiration, in which case the futures contracts held by USO will be rolled into the second month contract and third month contract. Any investments by USO in crude oil futures contracts will be subject to any applicable limits on such futures contracts as may be imposed by the NYMEX and ICE Futures. The foregoing may impact the performance of USO. In addition, as a result of these changes, USO may not be able to meet its investment objective, which is for the daily percentage changes in the NAV per share to reflect the daily percentage changes of the spot price of light, sweet crude oil, as measured by the daily percentage changes in the price of Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, plus interest earned on USO’s collateral holdings, less USO’s expenses."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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