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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #61,421
  • Apr 14, 2020 6:29am Apr 14, 2020 6:29am
Hi FTI

I understand this is advanced, for me for now, it's just understanding how it works, maybe I'll end up just there, understanding, as you say, this is institutional function. My understanding is as a beginner, so nothing to unlearn... I can start from the beginning.....
  • #61,422
  • Apr 14, 2020 6:33am Apr 14, 2020 6:33am
Quoting fti
{quote} Hi Zoran, No. Butterfly options on the yen, its strategic currency option position. Refer any good options strategy book. Merlin's favourite book has it as well. It 's basically advance professional strategy. You can engineer, zero cost option exposures if you write. If you try it, DO NOT ever WRITE, unless you have enough experience to do so. Use that as a stop loss machanism instead until you are proficient enough to write. So [pay some premium for ability to play volatility. instead. If volatility doesn't come then you only lose time...
This book you mentioned, can't seem to find it. Not on Merlin's profile. Do you remember it? Is it worth reading?
  • #61,423
  • Apr 14, 2020 6:51am Apr 14, 2020 6:51am
Quoting Zoran
{quote} This book you mentioned, can't seem to find it. Not on Merlin's profile. Do you remember it? Is it worth reading?
"Refer any good options strategy book. "
Options is a trading instrunent.
Spot currencies is a trading instrument.
Futures derivatives ia a trading instrument.
Trding with buckshops is a trading instrument.

Long sword is a trading strategy technique.
It is not a trading instrument.
Is a corp blotter managing strategy.

Regards

Options book.
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  • #61,424
  • Apr 14, 2020 7:04am Apr 14, 2020 7:04am
cant understand why individual can't like an institution. am i missing any point

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CMP is Current Market price of one share, which is INR 250 (USD 3 approx)
one share is 1x above
  • #61,425
  • Apr 14, 2020 7:15am Apr 14, 2020 7:15am
Quoting fti
{quote} "Refer any good options strategy book. " Options is a trading instrunent. Spot currencies is a trading instrument. Futures derivatives ia a trading instrument. Trding with buckshops is a trading instrument. Long sword is a trading strategy technique. It is not a trading instrument. Is a corp blotter managing strategy. Regards Options book. {image}

Yes, OK, so the long sword was used to manage your book at the bank.. OK, perhaps, that is not something I need to know... You mentioned, you had a whole team for that...

Now, here you mentioned....

It 's basically advance professional strategy.

You can engineer, zero cost option exposures if you write.
If you try it, DO NOT ever WRITE, unless you have enough experience to do so. Use that as a stop loss machanism instead until you are proficient enough to write. So [pay some premium for ability to play volatility. instead. If volatility doesn't come then you only lose time premium. But when vols are in then you may actually make a killing for the price of a little premium.
These strategy is only viable , during instances where volatility is expected. During these times, these are the safetest strategies. ie Small risk for big gains. During norm volatility its a wasting asset.

This is not the long sword? Just options strategies? Was this lesson three? Is this something we can expand on here? If you like...

There are other example where you mention it, but nobody ever followed-up on the discussion (or very rarely). It was over my head at the time.... and probably mostly everyone else....

The reason I ask, is because if I start now, I want to be on the correct path. I don't want to start as with trading, and get into the fallacy first, then unlearn and clean mind...... cleaning mind takes time....

This is new to me, clean slate... ready to learn... from the beginning...

  • #61,426
  • Apr 14, 2020 7:18am Apr 14, 2020 7:18am
Quoting pannet1
cant understand why individual can't like an institution.
Risk profile is very different.

Institutions that trades like individuals.
Eg. Lehman bros.

Individuals that trade like institutions.
Jorge soros.

Care show me net worth please.
Institution networt is normally $2.
Regards
  • #61,427
  • Edited 7:50am Apr 14, 2020 7:28am | Edited 7:50am
Quoting Zoran
{quote} Yes, OK, so the long sword was used to manage your book at the bank.. OK, perhaps, that is not something I need to know... You mentioned, you had a whole team for that... Now, here you mentioned.... It 's basically advance professional strategy. You can engineer, zero cost option exposures if you write. If you try it, DO NOT ever WRITE, unless you have enough experience to do so. Use that as a stop loss machanism instead until you are proficient enough to write. So [pay some premium for ability to play volatility. instead. If volatility...
Buy lottery, there is little strategy.
Is wasting assets.
Buy puts and buy calls.
1 will make money.
If hyper trend. Then gains can be in 1000s%

Otherwise if dull markets. You SLOWLY go bankrupt. Thats why is important use other peoples money.
If you can convince YOUR brother budget money buy lottery every month from his pocket, one day YOU will be jackpot rich.

Otherwise. At the end we will all be dead. Is not if we will, is when.

Regards

If you maneuver lots brokers becomes rich.

By the way, to convince your brother YOU must say is advanced strstegies YOU are using. He not stupid invest in normal strategies.
Just use option insruments pay premiums. He won't understand what you doing except that one day YOU will be rich.

HIM i doubt he will ever be.
Be rich need have brains.
Same everyone believes they goibg to heaven.
I hope heaven have bbq beep. Buy from heaven supermarket. Slaughted by god.
Need find secret passage to casino too.

Inserted Video
  • #61,428
  • Apr 14, 2020 7:32am Apr 14, 2020 7:32am
Quoting fti
{quote} Buy lottery, there is little strategy. Is wasting assets. Buy puts and buy calls. 1 will make money. If hyper trend. Then gains can be in 1000s% Otherwise if dull markets. You SLOWLY go bankrupt. Thats why is important use other peoples money. If you can convince YOUR brother budget money buy lottery every month from his pocket, one day YOU will be jackpot rich. Otherwise. At the end we will all be dead. Is not if we will, is when. Regards If you maneuver lots brokers becomes rich.
OK, so when you started here and trading as an individual - in retirement, did you consider using this strategy or did you only (or mostly) trade short sword?
  • #61,429
  • Apr 14, 2020 7:51am Apr 14, 2020 7:51am
Quoting Zoran
{quote} OK, so when you started here and trading as an individual - in retirement, did you consider using this strategy or did you only (or mostly) trade short sword?
Eeeer did i hand held you trade long sword?

Regards

Repeat.
Instruments is not strategy.
Long sword is strategy. Model strategy.
  • #61,430
  • Apr 14, 2020 7:52am Apr 14, 2020 7:52am
Quoting fti
If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER. I put it to you, that, to consider your Technical Studies to be more than what they are is a "fallacy" in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gamblers' fallacy. It can lead you to a very dark place. What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients.

This is true, BUT....

Every change in the Science is a revolution and it opens a new knowledge advantage by allowing us to see things more clearly.

So, Math (the right Math) is still the Trader's best friend. What is the right Math? It is more than probability theory, tensor calculus, vector spaces, gradients, etc. Much more than this. I know someone who is trading fully automated (not scalping, not news trading, not arb, not shit) and I know about the software he coded. This guy is in good health, no pressures on him and the software is way far more advanced than your Tesla's AI computers for the autodrive mode.

Of course, he is not running his software on common computers. He spent between 80k and 120k only in the infrastructures.
  • #61,431
  • Edited 8:40am Apr 14, 2020 8:07am | Edited 8:40am
Quoting DavideCash
{quote} This is true, BUT.... Every change in the Science is a revolution and it opens a new knowledge advantage by allowing us to see things more clearly. So, Math (the right Math) is still the Trader's best friend. What is the right Math? It is more than probability theory, tensor calculus, vector spaces, gradients, etc. Much more than this. I know someone who is trading fully automated (not scalping, not news trading, not arb, not shit) and I know about the software he coded. This guy is in good health, no pressures on him and the software is...
Many ways skin a cat.
Still only 1 way eat it.

I handheld short sword strategies. Ie. Skillsets and mindset training.

120k, my it budget at banks exceeding 5 mio per annum 1980s usd ppp, running long sword stats trading.
So tell me about 120k.

Cannot even get my server room up. No talk coders, hardware and support. But i started on apple 2e and visicalc in 70s.

Before that i has 4 staff plot giant charts in my chart room at the bank. 1 major 1 artist on 20x10 feet sliding panels in my conference room/ chartist room.

Regards

Inserted Video
  • #61,432
  • Apr 14, 2020 8:12am Apr 14, 2020 8:12am
Quoting fti
{quote}So tell me about 120k. Regards

You need to have timely and precise liquidity information in the microseconds environment cause you need to build a bottom-to-up architecture adding layers of AI capable to react with flexible swings to the least relevant change of wind in the volume / open interests / ticks distribution.

I will ask him to publish his results and share with you guys, if anyone of you is interested or just curious.
  • #61,433
  • Apr 14, 2020 8:31am Apr 14, 2020 8:31am
Quoting DavideCash
{quote} This is true, BUT.... Every change in the Science is a revolution and it opens a new knowledge advantage by allowing us to see things more clearly. So, Math (the right Math) is still the Trader's best friend. What is the right Math? It is more than probability theory, tensor calculus, vector spaces, gradients, etc. Much more than this. I know someone who is trading fully automated (not scalping, not news trading, not arb, not shit) and I know about the software he coded. This guy is in good health, no pressures on him and the software is...
It's good news. It's probably good for you and for someone you know. So what then for me and some other poor traders - retailers? I'm not fully automated and making some shit regularly sometimes (human being, I mean).
There's a regulated broker giving you spreads back, you are just supposed to pay commissions and taxes. It's also good.
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #61,434
  • Apr 14, 2020 8:44am Apr 14, 2020 8:44am
Quoting fti
{quote} Eeeer did i hand held you trade long sword? Regards Repeat. Instruments is not strategy. Long sword is strategy. Model strategy.
No, but privately, your own trading, if you don't want to reveal, that's fine...

Like I said, I probably won't use it but more for understanding... You have said many times, it's for institutions, and I believe you...

Also, interesting to understand how and why options came into existence, who created them?

I have that book now, thanks, so I'll read it...
  • #61,435
  • Edited 9:07am Apr 14, 2020 8:46am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting Zoran
{quote} No, but privately, your own trading, if you don't want to reveal, that's fine... Like I said, I probably won't use it but more for understanding... You have said many times, it's for institutions, and I believe you... Also, interesting to understand how and why options came into existence, who created them? I have that book now, thanks, so I'll read it...

Inserted Video

Regards

So stupid.
Catching a falling knife is trying to buy in a crashing
Market.
People like to use terms they not know what the fuc they talking.
Soooo stupid
He was just riding the bear.
His steel balls and mindset made 34 mio.
And everyone wants to know.
"Whats the secret?"
  • #61,436
  • Apr 14, 2020 8:55am Apr 14, 2020 8:55am
Quoting fti
{quote} Many ways skin a cat. Still only 1 way eat it. I handheld short sword strategies. Ie. Skillsets and mindset training. 120k, my it budget at banks exceeding 5 mio per annum 1980s usd ppp, running long sword stats trading. So tell me about 120k. Cannot even get my server room up. No talk coders, hardware and support. But i started on apple 2e and visicalc in 70s. Before that i has 4 staff plot giant charts in my chart room at the bank. 1 major 1 artist on 20x10 feet sliding panels in my conference room/ chartist room. Regards https://youtu.be/Yiaar8RaM0o...
So you used computers for long sword calcs? You know, all those expensive computers you had in the 80s, your mobile phone is much faster than them. Even faster than super computers in the 90s -> https://www.phonearena.com/news/A-mo...werful_id57149

BTW, this person claiming they have an automated system working purely on maths... I doubt it

The only hope I see for computer automated trading is through machine learning and AI, not maths....

This field has advanced quite a lot lately.
  • #61,437
  • Apr 14, 2020 9:02am Apr 14, 2020 9:02am
Quoting Zoran
{quote} BTW, this person claiming they have an automated system working purely on maths... I doubt it The only hope I see for computer automated trading is through machine learning and AI, not maths.... This field has advanced quite a lot lately.


AI - whatever AI - works when there are patterns

In trading there are NO patterns

You can find something if you follow the book, this is why I talked about a a bottom-to-up architecture adding layers of AI capable to react with flexible swings to the least relevant change of wind in the volume / open interests / ticks distribution. There is math and not the basic linear algebra or high-school calculus in that.

But this moderator thing takes hours before publishing my damn posts
  • #61,438
  • Apr 14, 2020 9:13am Apr 14, 2020 9:13am
Quoting fti
{quote} https://youtu.be/S-e1MxcjFDk Regards So stupid. Catching a falling knife is trying to buy in a crashing Market. People like to use terms they not know what the fuc they talking. Soooo stupid He was just riding the bear. His steel balls and mindset made 34 mio. And everyone wants to know. "Whats the secret?"
Haha, funny, who want's to go on Bloomberg and claim I made £110 million on cable drop and then reversed when it hit the bottom?? I can show you my blotter and statements... just let me get photoshop out first.... add some 000s and adjust statements
  • #61,439
  • Apr 14, 2020 9:17am Apr 14, 2020 9:17am
Quoting Zoran
{quote} So you used computers for long sword calcs? You know, all those expensive computers you had in the 80s, your mobile phone is much faster than them. Even faster than super computers in the 90s -> https://www.phonearena.com/news/A-mo...werful_id57149 BTW, this person claiming they have an automated system working purely on maths... I doubt it The only hope I see for computer automated trading is through machine learning and AI, not maths.... This field has advanced quite...
Not really.
The processor is faster.
But ram no up to mark.

Worst is software.
Your best charting software cannot even beat a 90s metastock.
You data feed accuracy is local rubbish. Confined to regional data feeds, nothing international yet.

Best forex charts for retail is russian mt4.
Hahahaha.
Show me a 7 mins candle chart.
Eeercstop scratching your head.
  • #61,440
  • Edited 9:55am Apr 14, 2020 9:45am | Edited 9:55am
Quoting Zoran
{quote} Haha, funny, who want's to go on Bloomberg and claim I made £110 million on cable drop and then reversed when it hit the bottom?? I can show you my blotter and statements... just let me get photoshop out first.... add some 000s and adjust statements
Don't bang him zoran.
You used to work for clearing house.
He's trading nikkei 225 osaka.
Is not easyvfalsify his clearing statements.
Unlike otc forex.

He has a 3 alphabet trade callsign just like me.
That means he own his own trading seat in the exchange. (exchange member)
You are looking at a professional trader.

Regards
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