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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #61,401
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:10am Apr 12, 2020 9:10am
Quoting GEfx
Happy Easter to Fti and everyone participating on the TAF thread!
Happy easter, my friend.
God bless.

Eeeer i wash hands alredy hor.
Feet not yet wash.
Did i scratched my backside?
Eeeer never mind wash again
hands hor not backside.


Regards.
  • #61,402
  • Apr 12, 2020 9:16am Apr 12, 2020 9:16am
https://www.facebook.com/groups/3886...sn=mo&d=n&vh=i

Friend.
Now both singing in heaven?
Buy tickets.
https://www.facebook.com/15470745355...sn=mo&d=n&vh=e
  • #61,403
  • Apr 12, 2020 7:32pm Apr 12, 2020 7:32pm
Quoting fti
{quote} Why paiseh? Make money and help everyone no need paiseh. Lose money then should paiseh. Welcome. Regards
Hi fti,

opps i guess you're right.
i will thrive to be the former
so step by step ah..

wrt Elliott waves that was mentioned earlier,
wave 4 going beyond wave 1 peak of rule 1 that rule was actually added later on right?
and the extended wave usually occur in wave 5 but nowadays they are saying it's most often in wave 3.

what about the channel counts? would you use it as a reference?
my feel about it is that we can take it into considerations but not blindly follow it because by having it imprint onto the chart would gives us hope that the levels would be reach and thus making us rigid.

Regards.
  • #61,404
  • Edited 8:05am Apr 13, 2020 6:12am | Edited 8:05am
Quoting j4f
{quote} Hi fti, opps i guess you're right. i will thrive to be the former so step by step ah.. wrt Elliott waves that was mentioned earlier, wave 4 going beyond wave 1 peak of rule 1 that rule was actually added later on right? and the extended wave usually occur in wave 5 but nowadays they are saying it's most often in wave 3. what about the channel counts? would you use it as a reference? my feel about it is that we can take it into considerations but not blindly follow it because by having it imprint onto the chart would gives...
Who is they?
What is they?
What is they quakifications?
Here we only concerned about us.

Impulse waves can occurs only in impulse wave.
Only wave 3, 5 are impluse waves.
Wave 1, 2 and 4 are reversal/retracement waves.

Whats a channel count?
Longkang(drain) ?
Elliot said that?
Some drainage peeps thinks everythings gone down the drain.

Regards

Initial elliot studies focused in the physic of market participants in stable price ranges.
Some bastards in markets because their funds are borrowed money, like to scream coronavirus so as to panic traders rush give away money buy face mask. Otherwise the bastards not knows how to pay interest for the cost of funds. Normally they work for institution gets salary for drinking coffee and smoking. Thats what creates impluse waves.
Some have....syphilsis.

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They?
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Us
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1750...8/?d=null&vh=i

Boleh sambong, pusing belakang longkang.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/3886...2673118590412/
  • #61,405
  • Edited 8:24am Apr 13, 2020 8:10am | Edited 8:24am
I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:
Coronavirus: Mobile data helps Norway track cases - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52236559

Now they can track every virus.
If they can get rid every virus container. Then the priblem will be solved.

Track them and wipe them out.
Hahahaha smart kids vs virus carriers.
Spit on them smart kids first.
Necessary murder?.... Eeer evil?
Survival of species. Lets see which species survives natural selection.

Unless new law. Sg already have.
Spitting is a crime. Kissing not yet. Soon maybe.
Whart about fuc King?
If pay is not.
Ad hoc or monthly scheme?
Ala carte is interesting.

Fuc King social contract/connect/conkek Trending and viral. 5th wave.
  • #61,406
  • Edited 8:56am Apr 13, 2020 8:27am | Edited 8:56am
Wow.

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I think jenny and fei fei is smiling.
Tomollo will be batter/applause.



Eeer yaya didn't forget you.
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  • #61,407
  • Apr 13, 2020 8:51am Apr 13, 2020 8:51am
Quoting Zoran
{quote} Hi dbrown You posted the page and highlighted the major "takeaway", go back and read the other links in the original post (thanks Phil). It's all there. Why are you looking for EWs and attempting to label them? Isn't that predictive, curve fitting? What about the dance? Maybe they will come to you? This is for everyone here asking questions, It's recommended to read the first 200 pages of this thread, it's all there. Start dancing and internalise it. One step at a time, no short cuts. If you want to learn to trade, like professionals, I...

hello zoran,

sorry for the protracted reply. Im in the middle of moving and my work has been slammed due to this pandemic. I didnt want the convo to die out but I havent had any time to reply until now.

Quote
Why are you looking for EWs and attempting to label them? Isn't that predictive, curve fitting?

No I do not think that counting the waves is predictve. My understanding is that assumig because you have waves 1234 that there will be a 5 ...or that because you see a wave 5 that the markets must make an abc correction. If you research some of John hills studies he (as mentioned in the thread) he talks about ewt then goes on to say markets can move in 3 wave sequences or 5 wave and 7 wave. i think the rigidity lies in trying to curve fit everything to make it 5 waves then abc.

I have read those posts and I do understand what fti is sying about ewt but my toughts are that due to the addulterations of elliotts teachings and the misleading information thats out there in the mainstream he probably didnt want people to fall into the rigidity of the mainstream way of using elliott. As I mentioned in my post that you quoted " the takeaway from that post" was that there were other more reliable forms of TA and reading trends so .
But I have read through the thread (first 200-300 pages) at least 4-5 times now and have read even beyond those pages.

there are many instances where you find fti counting waves. but he isnt rigid about what comes next.

this post he mentions ewt being one of his core tools----->https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...28#post8488228

also in this post of mine that started the discussion ---->https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12811225

it wasnt the topic i was looking to discuss but fti analysed my chart with ewt---->https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12812302.

my understanding is that ewt is another form of pattern analysis not so different from seeing a h +s... the thing is ... not every h+s ends up being reversal pattern.

i hope I have explained myself clearly... but i have to run. wishing everyone a good trading week ahead.
  • #61,408
  • Edited 9:32am Apr 13, 2020 9:11am | Edited 9:32am
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} hello zoran, sorry for the protracted reply. I>https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...5#post12811225 it wasnt the topic i was looking to discuss but fti analysed my chart with ewt---->https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12812302. my understanding is that ewt is another form of pattern analysis not so different from seeing a h +s... the thing is ... not every h+s ends up being reversal pattern. i hope I have explained myself clearly... but i have to run. wishing everyone a good trading...
Eeer oh is my fault?

Ok how deep you want?

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Hahahahahaha
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  • #61,409
  • Apr 13, 2020 9:46am Apr 13, 2020 9:46am
OM GOOSE.
She ate her pet pig?

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  • #61,410
  • Edited 12:07pm Apr 13, 2020 11:12am | Edited 12:07pm
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} hello zoran, sorry for the protracted reply. Im in the middle of moving and my work has been slammed due to this pandemic. I didnt want the convo to die out but I havent had any time to reply until now. {quote} No I do not think that counting the waves is predictve. My understanding is that assumig because you have waves 1234 that there will be a 5 ...or that because you see a wave 5 that the markets must make an abc correction. If you research some of John hills studies he (as mentioned in the thread) he talks about ewt then goes on to...
OK, thanks for the reply, this is the post where fti summed it up for me...

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...59#post1834759

And then followed up with this post (recommending the John Hill book)

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...55#post1834855

What about feeling the pulse and dance? Need to practice this on naked charts... then let anything that comes, come as added weight to market action...
  • #61,411
  • Apr 13, 2020 3:19pm Apr 13, 2020 3:19pm
Quoting fti
{quote} Eeer oh is my fault? Ok how deep you want?
Let's go deep! You never completed lesson 3, can you show us the Greeks? ΔΓΘvp
  • #61,412
  • Edited 5:02pm Apr 13, 2020 4:50pm | Edited 5:02pm
Quoting Zoran
{quote} Let's go deep! You never completed lesson 3, can you show us the Greeks? ΔΓΘvp
For most of you chartist,
You people are so lazy spoon fed.
I showed you i use 5 min charts in forex.
Computer chart programs have 1 min 5 min hourly 4 hourky daily weekly monthly charts.
Truth is this all bullshit.
They con you.
But you too lazy to know.
For forex 5 mins charts is ok.
Generally takes about 5 mins to finalise a transaction.
In equities if you use 5 mins charts you are stupid.
If you trading bullion, if you using 5 min charts you are a moron.
So how do you know what your time axis should be for what you are trading?
I believe none of you knows.
Thats where elliot comes in.
And i go out.
Hahahaha.
Pre dick tive my ass/donkey.

Regards

Human nature lazy stupid.
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  • #61,413
  • Edited 5:50pm Apr 13, 2020 5:16pm | Edited 5:50pm
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Hahahaha expert in fundemental and technical analysis. Try con me. Hahahaha.
But first laern how to spreak properly, you are a baby?

Ok how many box? what base?
How do you know?
Start from yearly prices, trade a few lifetimes.
Hahahaha donkey.
Elliot kambing..... Eeer coming.

Don't tell me this also i need tell u.
Want teach me?

Regards

Errr and no farting pls.
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  • #61,414
  • Apr 13, 2020 5:57pm Apr 13, 2020 5:57pm
Quoting Zoran
{quote} Let's go deep! You never completed lesson 3, can you show us the Greeks? ΔΓΘvp
I repeated more than 7 times already.
You wasn't paying attention.
Next time if i show, i wear bikini.

Regards
  • #61,415
  • Apr 13, 2020 6:47pm Apr 13, 2020 6:47pm
You are so right fti and I can see how patient you were but kept repeating yourself...

I don't think I was lazy but I can see I was ignorant/blocked/naive... lots of things went over my head... even after researching but couldn't find some things... so left them...

I'm on 5 min... you were right...

Long sword needs lots of research... still reading... bed time here...
  • #61,416
  • Edited 9:04pm Apr 13, 2020 8:44pm | Edited 9:04pm
hi dbrown



"No I do not think that counting the waves is predictve. My understanding is that assumig because you have waves 1234 that there will be a 5 ...or that because you see a wave 5 that the markets must make an abc correction. If you research some of John hills studies he (as mentioned in the thread) he talks about ewt then goes on to say markets can move in 3 wave sequences or 5 wave and 7 wave. i think the rigidity lies in trying to curve fit everything to make it 5 waves then abc."

see if this helps:

1. curve fitting counting EW is not productive.
- market can make ab correction. or market can make abcdef correction.
- no info on individual bar volatility coming to the end of the impulse / retracement
- little info on market dance
- it can be 1 wave only, 2 wave only, or fake impulse wave

2. reading the bar charts tells you more info + to be taken with fundamental context + trading hours + etc.

3. reading market depth/time-sales pulse of a centralized exchange for e.g. stock exchange provides info on pulse. eventually this becomes the bar chart and pattern you are reading.

4. more productive to have MM strategy to deal with continuation wave, or retracement wave, or fake waves. Eg:
- if it was uptrend, and price is now at a correction, what is your plan of MM?
- if price make b and continues up, you would have missed the chance to add at c.
- if price goes down to c and you added but then stay there to consolidate side way between b and c. what is your plan?

believe you will have to answer the MM plan yourself. no-one could eat your dinner for you and still make you full.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #61,417
  • Apr 13, 2020 11:58pm Apr 13, 2020 11:58pm
Quoting Jacque
hi dbrown "No I do not think that counting the waves is predictve. My understanding is that assumig because you have waves 1234 that there will be a 5 ...or that because you see a wave 5 that the markets must make an abc correction. If you research some of John hills studies he (as mentioned in the thread) he talks about ewt then goes on to say markets can move in 3 wave sequences or 5 wave and 7 wave. i think the rigidity lies in trying to curve fit everything to make it 5 waves then abc." see if this helps: 1. curve fitting counting EW is not...

hey jacque,

Thank you for the reply. The part you highlighted in my post I dont think I articulated correctly. I only had a small window to reply to zoran and rushed a response.
the point i was trying to make is that the market does what it wants. the problem with ewt is that it has no predictive capacity. just because there's an a wave 1,2 ,3,4 doesnt mean that there will be an impulse wave 5. wave 5 can fail or the count can go to 7 or more. assuming that just because you had a 5 wave sequence that an ABC must follow is false. market does what she wants. I think the value in ewt is kind of the answer to your fourth point.
I believe fti said he uses it to determine position snowballing. if price is in wave 1 what does your MM look like? scout?
wave two? checker maybe? wave three...attack..
wave five? profit taking? cautiousness as trend already deep. all of that including the scenarios that you mention

I agree with you that reading the bar charts has more information and therefore probably more useful. just looking to supplement my understanding
  • #61,418
  • Apr 14, 2020 12:01am Apr 14, 2020 12:01am
Quoting fti
{quote} Eeer oh is my fault? Ok how deep you want? https://youtu.be/4Nro6oCup5E Hahahahahaha https://youtu.be/rlIIyumRI1k https://youtu.be/Ca2JFaYX5AA


nobody's fault but mine?
  • #61,419
  • Edited 12:36am Apr 14, 2020 12:21am | Edited 12:36am
"I think the value in ewt is kind of the answer to your fourth point.
I believe fti said he uses it to determine position snowballing. if price is in wave 1 what does your MM look like? scout?
wave two? checker maybe? wave three...attack..
wave five? profit taking? cautiousness as trend already deep. all of that including the scenarios that you mention

I agree with you that reading the bar charts has more information and therefore probably more useful. just looking to supplement my understanding
"

hi dbrown,

- in my point 4, it is more important to have the MM strategy than to curve fit EWT.

  1. consider if retracement abcdef was made in a small volatility bars. was it then abc ? or was it truly abcdef? everyone will see it different.
  2. i think is more important to see how deep the retrace goes and how volatility behaves when it hit key points that everyone is watching and have a MM plan
  3. if start making a retrace, you cannot tell when a where ends.
  4. question is: do you add when price is retraced 5%? or 10% on a? it depends on your MM and market feel.
  5. if you added at 5%, but if a continues going down another 10%, do you add to rescue mode or do you cut loss? it depends on your MM.
  6. when a ends at 15% and turns up, a is hindsight already info already. what is your MM to deal with b? do you reduce back to scout leavel? or do you add more?
  7. if a fell thru the roof back to starting point, what do you do?

- you can see that there was no need to consider EWT counting in the detailed/theoretical manner that many is asking on this thread "to improve knowledge", in the above example.
- impulse wave is just a surge in price and volatility compared to prior, usually ends in 3 bars, sometimes more , sometimes less. everyone can see on chart without knowing EW.

  1. if it was first wave coming on the back of fundamentals + a market bottoms, then it will probably have many more waves before peaking out. what is then your MM?



i am in rescue mode of equity book (which i put my savings into periodically, but became a sitting duck during the margin call selling 2 weeks ago), example is one of the counter i am trading this week to minimize the loss
A) bought 2 in rescue
B) sell 2 in rescue
C) bought back 2 + 1 increase in rescue, as i saw continued very strong buying in time/sales, replenishing bids cannot be taken out
D) removed all rescue as saw buying slowed down + reaching prior intermediate top.

my plan next, ready 1 rescue if price retrace on week move down.

if i curve fit EW abc retrace, i will be blind and be still in sell mode. But seeing the double bottom, + Fed actions + very strong buying and reduced downwards volality, i bought more to rescue. if it had failed, i would have scratched to cut loss at commissions only, please note that this is day chart.

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THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #61,420
  • Apr 14, 2020 6:08am Apr 14, 2020 6:08am
Great now all have advance trade managing techniques that they notvunderstand or know how to use.

What greatest is if used in non compliance, you lost your basics.

If you lose pips or damage account beyond point of no reyurn. Don't look at me. You did it yourselves.
I will not show you long sword.

Is institutional managing tech.
But every one thinks they institution.
Whats your paidup cap? Whats u human resource power?


Regards
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