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The Swamp

  • #59,441
  • Apr 11, 2020 7:20am Apr 11, 2020 7:20am
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN21R3JI

Major U.S. lenders are preparing to become operators of oil and gas fields across the country for the first time in a generation to avoid losses on loans to energy companies that may go bankrupt, sources aware of the plans told Reuters.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #59,442
  • Apr 11, 2020 7:46am Apr 11, 2020 7:46am
Peak virus....

2-3 people dying of Covid-19 every minute in the USA now.....

911 calls re: Covid-19 in NYC coming in every 15 seconds....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #59,443
  • Apr 11, 2020 8:45am Apr 11, 2020 8:45am
Quoting The Fool
Peak virus.... 2-3 people dying of Covid-19 every minute in the USA now..... 911 calls re: Covid-19 in NYC coming in every 15 seconds....

Yet u.s. intelligence warned the white house about this in mid November. S Korea had its first death and the same day as the U.S. S korea started testing early. While our leader called it a hoax. We still can't get a test in the U.S. when suspected (we were lied to). South Korea has 211 deaths. The U.S. has 18,870 deaths. With more testing in S.Korea, it has 10,480 confirmed infections. The U.S. under sporadic testing has 500,000 testing positive. Yet our mornic leader gives himself a 10, out of 10 rating.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,444
  • Apr 11, 2020 8:48am Apr 11, 2020 8:48am
Quoting DMA Trader
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN21R3JI Major U.S. lenders are preparing to become operators of oil and gas fields across the country for the first time in a generation to avoid losses on loans to energy companies that may go bankrupt, sources aware of the plans told Reuters.
its all connected.. all the way to the corner coffee shop. A thousand miles away from a oil state.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,445
  • Apr 11, 2020 9:00am Apr 11, 2020 9:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Above is numbers trajectory. Each has to be added to the day before. The current # is 1704 that would be added to the estimated 669# and so forth. That would place the next days new number at 2373 total deaths, or in that area. I'm not trying to debate the math or the numbers. My point is at current trajectory it will reach 10k in about 10 days. +- 1k and +- a day or a few. Easter is 5 days later. Easter may be 20k-ish. That's in 2 weeks, 10 X todays number.
Tomorrow is Easter. By the end of today 20k+ looks to be reached. The doubling number has slowed. If it hadn't slowed, the 10X would be carried forward in 2 weeks.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,446
  • Apr 11, 2020 9:07am Apr 11, 2020 9:07am
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don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #59,447
  • Apr 11, 2020 11:06am Apr 11, 2020 11:06am
;
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  • #59,448
  • Apr 11, 2020 2:11pm Apr 11, 2020 2:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
At current rate of infections. The U.S. will be at 1 million infections, and 10,000 deaths. Before Easter morning. Easter is in 15 days. The 1 million, 10k number trajectory is 10 days from now. It's doubling every 2.5/3 days. Those extra 5 days could double + the 1 million 1k #'s. Just in time to open up the U.S. on Easter morning. The front page will have numbers like this on it. Yesterday's new death number was 401. On trajectory, the next one may be, 669 ish. The following day 1,110. Depending on curve, reaching 10k or more by Easter looks realistic....
The doubling rate has drastically slowed from 2.5/3 days, to to approx 10 days to double. So in roughly 10 days, 30,000 more deaths added to the current 20,445 lost souls. On and around April 21 at current 10 day trajectory.

on a 14 day trajectory its 4X each 14 days. Day 14 being today targeted 2100 deaths by today's end. Forward at this trajectory in 14 days (2 weeks, April 25) 44,000 + 21,000= 65,000.

As time goes on the "wider days to double" curve the estimate lower. The 10 day estimate is lower than the 14 day per day. I could divide to a shorter period of time, but a 10 averaged should smooth things more.

Averaged over the next ten days. 3k per day. Starting with 2k early, then ending with 4k + in the later part of the 10 day cycle (rate of death). If these number drop or slow the final number will be lower. If they rise the final number higher. New York may start to stabilize in the next few weeks. While Florida may push the numbers up. Florida has more people than New York. The population is older in Florida. Most Southern states refused to shelter till late. Louisiana was early. The others have yet to surface. Hopefully this ends better. Usually the sheep get slaughtered behind a ignorant leader.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,449
  • Apr 11, 2020 2:17pm Apr 11, 2020 2:17pm
slightly higher today. Possibly leveling some in New York area. Hopefully it is.. Florida is entering the map now. Florida could pop it higher.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,450
  • Apr 11, 2020 4:00pm Apr 11, 2020 4:00pm
Quoting Boulder
; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMjDc8MJotU
He was with Crosby Stills at one time. I'm not sure of the albums..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #59,451
  • Apr 12, 2020 7:20am Apr 12, 2020 7:20am
" I mentioned that we talked to the senior leadership team every other day and the FX swings in developing country currencies are nuts. So, in Latin America you're seeing 30%, 40% plus negative impacts. I would remind folks that that's about $300 million of revenues in total."

reading into earnings report. more coming next week.

think about this exp in country's like Brasil where Corona measures are lighter. so USD appreciation is hitting this part too.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #59,452
  • Apr 12, 2020 11:13am Apr 12, 2020 11:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The doubling rate has drastically slowed from 2.5/3 days, to to approx 10 days to double. So in roughly 10 days, 30,000 more deaths added to the current 20,445 lost souls. On and around April 21 at current 10 day trajectory. on a 14 day trajectory its 4X each 14 days. Day 14 being today targeted 2100 deaths by today's end. Forward at this trajectory in 14 days (2 weeks, April 25) 44,000 + 21,000= 65,000. As time goes on the "wider days to double" curve the estimate lower. The 10 day estimate is lower than the 14 day per day. I could divide...
.....Ignorant?...Or at the service of others?...
The Chonchy
  • #59,453
  • Apr 12, 2020 11:20am Apr 12, 2020 11:20am
Like one song from my countryrinciple is same, all others are hue or shades.
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  • #59,454
  • Apr 12, 2020 12:04pm Apr 12, 2020 12:04pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} wti now 22.6 bought a little more. can't believe the drop it was 28 today wow. should drag down SPX

i'll settle for less

Nigeria’s oil minister says in a statement that he hops oil prices will rebound by at least $15
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #59,455
  • Apr 12, 2020 2:35pm Apr 12, 2020 2:35pm
The early March gap down $46 to <$30 coincides with the onset of the threatened production increase by SA & Russia. If we can backfill that anytime in the next few months, I will be a lot richer.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #59,456
  • Apr 12, 2020 2:36pm Apr 12, 2020 2:36pm
Watch this space for a screenshot of a stupid gap up to $27 or better....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #59,457
  • Apr 12, 2020 3:11pm Apr 12, 2020 3:11pm
Didn't trade the gap open... wait ......;
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  • #59,458
  • Apr 12, 2020 3:15pm Apr 12, 2020 3:15pm
Quoting Boulder
Didn't trade the gap open... wait for London opens; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whCdxooLDpY
bank holiday in the UK
  • #59,459
  • Apr 12, 2020 3:16pm Apr 12, 2020 3:16pm
Quoting The Fool
Watch this space for a screenshot of a stupid gap up to $27 or better....
uhhh.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #59,460
  • Apr 12, 2020 5:01pm Apr 12, 2020 5:01pm
Getting close to H1 uptrend stop 1.0928.. lets see bulls can hold...
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