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WTI Crude Oil (TRENDSURFING - with the help of the model)

  • #201
  • Apr 6, 2020 4:18pm Apr 6, 2020 4:18pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Oh well no recovery yet. WTI lost $2.46 or 8.6% from Friday's close. {image}
Yes but some light on the horizon maybe, for the/towards end of the week... Opec agreement, corona etc...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #202
  • Apr 7, 2020 2:52am Apr 7, 2020 2:52am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yes but some light on the horizon maybe, for the/towards end of the week... Opec agreement, corona etc...
Looks even better now. It seems that there might be epic party on Friday. Can you imagine the wait/gap through the easter when/if info comes through at market close... Hope this will be the start of the BUY train that we can jump on for crazy -(and linear) profits for weeks/months ahead. I believe this might be a lifetime opportunity, looking forward for it.
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #203
  • Apr 7, 2020 4:12pm Apr 7, 2020 4:12pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yes but some light on the horizon maybe, for the/towards end of the week... Opec agreement, corona etc...
The light look further away with WTI losing more than $4.50 this week already. Down $2.08 or 8.6% today.
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  • #204
  • Apr 7, 2020 4:19pm Apr 7, 2020 4:19pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yes but some light on the horizon maybe, for the/towards end of the week... Opec agreement, corona etc...
Quoting Hutch
{quote} The light look further away with WTI losing more than $4.50 this week already. Down $2.08 or 8.6% today. {image}
Yes, hence I'll wait till Thu to see/confirm/reject (right now people betting on both/all scenarios), still hope this will happen tough:
Inserted Video
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #205
  • Apr 8, 2020 10:57am Apr 8, 2020 10:57am
The consensus on the change of crude oil inventory was an increase of 9.27 million Bbls and the actual change was an increase of 15.18 million Bbls. Since this indicates an increase in the oil glut I was expecting WTI to go down but instead it went up only to correct later. Here were my trades before it started to consolidate
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  • #206
  • Apr 8, 2020 4:11pm Apr 8, 2020 4:11pm
After the huge increase in crude oil inventory WTI traders did not despair since WTI finished the day $2.01 or 8.4% higher than yesterday. I guess that traders expect a large production cut from OPEC and large producing countries.
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  • #207
  • Apr 9, 2020 5:35am Apr 9, 2020 5:35am

I guess my broker doesn't like my trading style From my mailbox:


Important Notice: Restriction on leverage for CFDs on Energy Commodities



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  • #208
  • Apr 9, 2020 8:21am Apr 9, 2020 8:21am
Quoting Hutch
I guess my broker doesn't like my trading style From my mailbox: Important Notice: Restriction on leverage for CFDs on Energy Commodities {image}
Hm... crazy, yes they suspect massive spike/jump/fall shortly... due to situation and they are limiting their exposure.. Also would like to stay that there is some UP movement now but have to wait for "confirmation". Also if they come up with the news when markets will be closed, from tomorrow on, then massive spikes are expected at market open. Would not want to be in the order through Easter because even if right, temp spikes can close both sides
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #209
  • Apr 9, 2020 4:20pm Apr 9, 2020 4:20pm
I have seen many crazy trading days before but today takes the cake for trading WTI. The range for the day was from a low of $22.47 to a high of $28.20 a difference of $5.73 or over 25% from low to high resulting in the best WTI trading day this year I think traders went from an exuberance of a big production cut by OPEC to despair when the agreed production cut is too small to affect the low price of oil. WTI finished the day at $23.11 which is $2.95 or 11% below yesterday's close of $26.06
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  • #210
  • Apr 10, 2020 4:08am Apr 10, 2020 4:08am
Quoting Hutch
I have seen many crazy trading days before but today takes the cake for trading WTI. The range for the day was from a low of $22.47 to a high of $28.20 a difference of $5.73 or over 25% from low to high resulting in the best WTI trading day this year I think traders went from an exuberance of a big production cut by OPEC to despair when the agreed production cut is too small to affect the low price of oil. WTI finished the day at $23.11 which is $2.95 or 11% below yesterday's close of $26.06 {image}
Yea and just when we thought this output cut would come through, we see that Mexico stalled the process. So it seems it's gonna be a long Easter (nights) .
Nothing we can do right now, specially today (OIL trading CLOSED), I guess we'll just have to wait, at least if we are not to gamble...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #211
  • Apr 11, 2020 4:20pm Apr 11, 2020 4:20pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yea and just when we thought this output cut would come through, we see that Mexico stalled the process. So it seems it's gonna be a long Easter (nights) . Nothing we can do right now, specially today (OIL trading CLOSED), I guess we'll just have to wait, at least if we are not to gamble...
This article states that the US and Mexico agreed to production cuts
https://www.business-standard.com/ar...1100152_1.html
We can believe what this agreement will bring only when we see that energy prices will go up
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  • #212
  • Apr 13, 2020 9:40am Apr 13, 2020 9:40am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} This article states that the US and Mexico agreed to production cuts https://www.business-standard.com/ar...1100152_1.html We can believe what this agreement will bring only when we see that energy prices will go up {image}
Yeah, they seemed to agree somewhat but I need at least 2 days to see how this rolls out (just in order to avoid possible fake rises). Still holiday today in many parts...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #213
  • Apr 13, 2020 4:15pm Apr 13, 2020 4:15pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yeah, they seemed to agree somewhat but I need at least 2 days to see how this rolls out (just in order to avoid possible fake rises). Still holiday today in many parts...
Well no need to avoid a possible fake rise since announcing a cut of 20 million barrels a day did nothing except that WTI went down by $0.74 or 3% today. Switching to a H1 chart we can clearly see that WTI did not positively react to that so called "big news" according to President Trump
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  • #214
  • Apr 13, 2020 4:19pm Apr 13, 2020 4:19pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Well no need to avoid a possible fake rise since announcing a cut of 20 million barrels a day did nothing except that WTI went down by $0.74 or 3% today. Switching to a H1 chart we can clearly see that WTI did not positively react to that so called "big news" according to President Trump {image}
Well yes, but still holiday in some parts of the world so will wait a bit...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #215
  • Apr 14, 2020 4:46am Apr 14, 2020 4:46am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Well yes, but still holiday in some parts of the world so will wait a bit...
Man, it seems the WTI wants to go UP but is reluctant to do so... Anyway... EU seems to think about restoring the activities, gradually... which means... production returning... China also... Not sure about US... But it would appear there are changes coming... Not sure about dipping into it until at least more is clear... Which I believe will be by the end of this week... This time "for sure".
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #216
  • Apr 14, 2020 4:11pm Apr 14, 2020 4:11pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Man, it seems the WTI wants to go UP but is reluctant to do so... Anyway... EU seems to think about restoring the activities, gradually... which means... production returning... China also... Not sure about US... But it would appear there are changes coming... Not sure about dipping into it until at least more is clear... Which I believe will be by the end of this week... This time "for sure".
Well my friend it's not the time to trade WTI on a long term basis although scalping is not bad. WTI lost $0.94 today but although it's not bad it's still a 4% loss.
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  • #217
  • Apr 15, 2020 4:16pm Apr 15, 2020 4:16pm
Another small loss of $1 today but they accumulate. In any case WTI is fun whether you trade on a H1 chart or on a 5¢ Renko chart
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  • #218
  • Apr 16, 2020 4:08pm Apr 16, 2020 4:08pm
WTI stabilized today with a mini loss of $0.18. It looks like that $20 is a major resistance level.
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  • #219
  • Edited 9:22am Apr 17, 2020 9:11am | Edited 9:22am
Well I was kinda waiting for this (non)trend to stabilise, but have made some test trades, one yesterday and one today and I am bassically impressed, just have to see how it goes... But of course, will use lower leverage for the purpose of this thread's goal... will see how it goes... Hope the WTI situation resolves a bit at least.. or I hope I can still trade it in the smaller timeframes as below timestamped (As before and after!) examples

  1. WTI #1, yesterday, at 50:1 max, BEFORE/ENTRY and AFTER/EXIT (made 50%/trade)
  2. WTI #2, today, just now, at 50:1 max, BEFORE/ENTRY, MIDDLE and AFTER/EXIT (made 50%/trade) and apparently, in retrospect, left much on the table since it seems to risen "quite a bit" after the exit, within that entry...

Will watch it closely.. specially beginning of next week and will then open LIVE TE for display... just have to see how it goes and what trade sizes/leverage would fit best, also in tune with the most voted desired Return/DD...

Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #220
  • Apr 17, 2020 5:27pm Apr 17, 2020 5:27pm
Quoting auricforecas
Well I was kinda waiting for this (non)trend to stabilise, but have made some test trades, one yesterday and one today and I am bassically impressed, just have to see how it goes... But of course, will use lower leverage for the purpose of this thread's goal... will see how it goes... Hope the WTI situation resolves a bit at least.. or I hope I can still trade it in the smaller timeframes as below timestamped (As before and after!) examples WTI #1, yesterday, at 50:1 max, BEFORE/ENTRY...
Congratulations on your trades. As you can see WTI trades around the resistance level of $20 with a closing price of $20.25 yesterday and $19.75 today.
Forget trading and have a nice weekend all
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