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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #61,301
  • Apr 8, 2020 6:06am Apr 8, 2020 6:06am
Quoting antmindset
{quote} I know my problem now after reading one of your story. It's like i knew i had this problem, but also thinking i will manage. Similar to story I am like want to driver car, and learning signboard with different colors. But without mastering them, i am in rush to drive car very fast. i i drive this fast only white, and crash. That i think my problem, not mastering basics, but want to dance. Thank you for highlighting them. All of your stories are about trading only, i realized it lately. Thank you so much FTI. I now know what i need to do....

No rushing.
If its not yours, rush also no get.
Market rushing, gets into fight at super market with superman.

Glenfiddich i like 18 years, 15 cannot. No virgin olive.

Regards
  • #61,302
  • Apr 8, 2020 6:39am Apr 8, 2020 6:39am
Quoting fti
{quote} Ahhh, zoran Whats not ok? We getting free ski ride. Eeeer planning install missiles anytime soon. Eeer want see my nephew ski, like turtle.... Hahahaha training 4 winter olympigs. Timberrrrrrrr.. Eeeer was that a tree? Or was THAT a TREEeeeeeeeeeeee. Regards. https://youtu.be/y964cb0D2ng
Just checking

Yes, let's see your nephew, sounds impressive.
  • #61,303
  • Apr 8, 2020 9:29am Apr 8, 2020 9:29am
Quoting protuberanec
Hello fti, exnav, phil, alex and other friends. just want ask about wave count, have some trouble with it, if its not bother can you explain or send links or etc. wish you all health and happiness.
Hello Protuberanec,

Since you mentioned my callsign as well, here is my view and reservations:

1. I have seen a diligent reply to your question by Fti and I could not express it better. Thank you Fti so much. It's a fair guideline.
2. I am currently not trading Live. Being busy, there is no much spare time and energy at the moment. Just making big money on Demo while fighting boredom for some minutes per day. Thus, my information is just of a theorist not of a trader.
3. On the issue raised I have been re-reading this very thread and the following books: Technical Analysis of the Future Markets by John J. Murphy, starting from page 319; Stock & Commodity Market Trade Trading by Advanced technical Analysis, by John Hill, Chapter 3, from page 35.
4. You may have another look at TAF post 54753.
5. Attached you will find interpretation I am viewing now.

I wish you enjoyable exploration.

Best regards,
ExnavAttachment g
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20200408_164341.jpg Size: 1.9 MB
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #61,304
  • Apr 8, 2020 10:00am Apr 8, 2020 10:00am
Quoting Zoran
{quote} Hey GEfx, I've managed to upload my first video, it takes time but I also created a channel, mainly for the benefit of my kids, so they can see what I got up to with my son. First video here, unfortunately, I didn't have image stabilisation switched on but it's not too bad. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMRHLG4ldhY And channel here Seeking Snow https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCom...JTseech8lmX1gA Hope it's not too distracting for this thread, fti, if you're not OK with it, please let me know.
Zoran, that was great! You are a better skier than me, as is your son! I've driven all over Switzerland but never skied there (I spent a few nights in Zermatt and remember having coffee in Brig before heading into Italy). St Luc is in a very beautiful area of Switzerland. Your clip reminds me of my last trip with my son to Breckenridge, CO. So much fun! We skied one day at Breckenridge, where it was crowded. Then we drove up to the Arapaho Basin, just a few miles from Breckenridge. It was practically a ghost town and we had the best time there. It's like skiing in a cereal bowl, with big wide runs with no one around. We spent two days there and we were able to do more runs 2 days than any previous 3 day trip, You and you son would love it there. Thanks for sharing your post and I hope you 2 can continue to spend time like that together!
  • #61,305
  • Edited 12:29pm Apr 8, 2020 10:45am | Edited 12:29pm
Interesting investigation.
Any one knows if can verify?
Corona dance.

https://www.facebook.com/22757371427...sn=mo&d=n&vh=e

Documentary?
Propaganda, sounds like WAR CRY.
Prulude to war.
  • #61,306
  • Apr 8, 2020 11:48am Apr 8, 2020 11:48am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Zoran, that was great! You are a better skier than me, as is your son! I've driven all over Switzerland but never skied there (I spent a few nights in Zermatt and remember having coffee in Brig before heading into Italy). St Luc is in a very beautiful area of Switzerland. Your clip reminds me of my last trip with my son to Breckenridge, CO. So much fun! We skied one day at Breckenridge, where it was crowded. Then we drove up to the Arapaho Basin, just a few miles from Breckenridge. It was practically a ghost town and we had the best time...
Thanks GE, that's the first video, not with my son but my Slovenian partner (she's the sporty one). We speak in Serbian as it's the only language we both know. I'm still uploading some with my son, that first one took all night so it's a slow process.

I've spent a lot of time in Switzerland, both skiing and hiking, really love it. Spent the first month with my son there also. I'm familiar with Zermatt and Brig also, did you go to see the Matterhorn?

I'm planning to ski in the US and North America at some stage, not sure when but when I go I'll stay at least a year travelling around.
  • #61,307
  • Apr 8, 2020 12:32pm Apr 8, 2020 12:32pm
Quoting Zoran
{quote} Thanks GE, that's the first video, not with my son but my Slovenian partner (she's the sporty one). We speak in Serbian as it's the only language we both know. I'm still uploading some with my son, that first one took all night so it's a slow process. I've spent a lot of time in Switzerland, both skiing and hiking, really love it. Spent the first month with my son there also. I'm familiar with Zermatt and Brig also, did you go to see the Matterhorn? I'm planning to ski in the US and North America at some stage, not sure when but when I go...
Ooops sorry about the mistaken identity. She's a good skier! We did see the Matterhorn once. It was covered by clouds on our first trip, but we got luck the morning of our second trip. When you come to the US try skiing Colorado (the Breckenridge area has some really good resorts), but my favorite area is Utah. Something about the snow is different and the altitude is a bit lower than Colorado. Give me a shout when you plan your trip!
  • #61,308
  • Edited 1:29pm Apr 8, 2020 1:17pm | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Protuberanec, Since you mentioned my callsign as well, here is my view and reservations: 1. I have seen a diligent reply to your question by Fti and I could not express it better. Thank you Fti so much. It's a fair guideline. 2. I am currently not trading Live. Being busy, there is no much spare time and energy at the moment. Just making big money on Demo while fighting boredom for some minutes per day. Thus, my information is just of a theorist not of a trader. 3. On the issue raised I have been re-reading...
Inserted Video


Inserted Video
  • #61,309
  • Edited 1:09am Apr 9, 2020 12:45am | Edited 1:09am
Dear Fti,

Thank you for good video reminders. I do remember we exchanged the Blind Man Dancing several times. Great!

And this is to address our friends - To contribute a bit more to the Elliot Waves discussion I would refer to The New Market Wizards by Jack Schwager, namely, I should be re-reading starting page 8 "...At this time, I received a call from my friend Harvey (not his real name)..." and finishing at page 10 "...The application of the theory is unavoidably subjective, with numerous interpretations appearing in scores of volumes. (SOL-RCE: JohnJ. Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, New York Institute of Finance, 1986.)"
But, we must dance feeling the rhythm (my interpretation).

Thanks to upcoming Easter I've got a day-off to clear very busy mind
No exception, my country (and people, of course) is as well affected by COVID-19 being in official Emergency State (prolonged till 12 May), though.

Strong Health to you, Fti, and all TAF - Traders/ Readers.

Yours cordially,
Exnav

P.S. Another reminder - I had better not trade Live unless I am the right fit as below. HOLD and ATTACK
Inserted Video
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #61,310
  • Edited 6:38am Apr 9, 2020 4:34am | Edited 6:38am
Any more discussion on it?

Quoting fti
Anyway the chart how trade the 5 is given on thread. The oldtimers won't give it to you, if you cannot find it too bad. Use mind. Its in the hand held sessions. Question 5 wave trend has 5 major legs. How many legs has extended 5 wave trend?
  • #61,311
  • Apr 9, 2020 7:56am Apr 9, 2020 7:56am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Protuberanec, Since you mentioned my callsign as well, here is my view and reservations: 1. I have seen a diligent reply to your question by Fti and I could not express it better. Thank you Fti so much. It's a fair guideline. 2. I am currently not trading Live. Being busy, there is no much spare time and energy at the moment. Just making big money on Demo while fighting boredom for some minutes per day. Thus, my information is just of a theorist not of a trader. 3. On the issue raised I have been re-reading...
Hello my friend, I'll never forget your callsign, I try to find this books. Thanks for your explanation, its great as usual. Thanks you a lot. just dont understand rules about volatility, how you measure it? Thanks again and good luck
  • #61,312
  • Apr 9, 2020 8:51am Apr 9, 2020 8:51am
Quoting Zoran
Any more discussion on it? {quote}
Im still searching the thread for it but I havent had much time to research as I have been busy with stuff outside trading. If I find it i will post more. I feel like I probably have read through It before but maybe just glossed over it because my thinking was that elliott wave wasnt very useful. Fti has mentioned in the thread it was one of his core tools so I have taken a re-interest in the subject.

Also, good to see that some of the original posters are still around and thank you for the contributions you made in the early days. It definitely helped my learning curve
  • #61,313
  • Apr 9, 2020 9:15am Apr 9, 2020 9:15am
Quoting Exnav
To contribute a bit more to the Elliot Waves discussion I would refer to The New Market Wizards by Jack Schwager, namely, I should be re-reading starting page 8 "...At this time, I received a call from my friend Harvey (not his real name)..." and finishing at page 10 "...The application of the theory is unavoidably subjective, with numerous interpretations appearing in scores of volumes. (SOL-RCE: JohnJ. Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, New York Institute of Finance, 1986.)" But, we must dance feeling the rhythm (my interpretation)...
hello exnav,

I agree with the statement above in that the commercially taught way of using elliiott can be subjective. Also many ellioticians count the waves in order to fulfill the requirements of elliotts rules which might lead to bogus counts. After I saw FTI's analysis of my charts it seemed that he had a different way than what is commercially taught. I figured fti had a less subjective way of using it but was unable to fully understand how he arrived at his counts. probably because of the garbage I learned from the mainstream way of the theory. So now I must do some digging/ learning and unlearning and hopefully arrive at the answer. But mostly I think elliotts usefulness is in the waveforms.
  • #61,314
  • Apr 9, 2020 9:55am Apr 9, 2020 9:55am
Quoting protuberanec
{quote} Hello my friend, I'll never forget your callsign, I try to find this books. just dont understand rules about volatility, how you measure it?
Hello Protuberanec,

Since I posted the picture and you possibly got it as a rule, I must specify it. The info was collected from this thread. But - it is interpretation, it's neither a guideline nor a rule to follow strictly and blindly. Impulse (motive wave) should be red evidently, manifest itself. Once you are in a recce with your scout, you must feel her pulse/ rhythm. Then, if you trade effectively, deploy your attack on the feeling. No reading, no feeling - withdraw. I mean, no any rigidity in counting. Market will show us what is volatility at the moment we are in/ trading. On the other hand, some calculations (also depending on time frames, etc.) are present in TAF thread, so in the books indicated. I should emphasize that Fti has graciously given the MO (even much more than that). What we may only miss that is his hand held master lessons.

As always, enjoy your trading path, and Happy Easter,

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #61,315
  • Apr 9, 2020 10:09am Apr 9, 2020 10:09am
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} hello exnav, I agree with the statement above in that the commercially taught way of using elliiott can be subjective. Also many ellioticians count the waves in order to fulfill the requirements of elliotts rules which might lead to bogus counts. After I saw FTI's analysis of my charts it seemed that he had a different way than what is commercially taught. I figured fti had a less subjective way of using it but was unable to fully understand how he arrived at his counts. probably because of the garbage I learned from the mainstream way of...
Yeah have the same problem I learn to count 1,2,3,4,5- impulse ABC- correction and etc. in exnav pictures you see that second wave have abcde2(6waves), or abcdef(6waves) and I just dont know how to implement it in my trading
  • #61,316
  • Apr 9, 2020 10:13am Apr 9, 2020 10:13am
Quoting dbrown101
{quote} So now I must do some digging/ learning and unlearning and hopefully arrive at the answer. But mostly I think elliotts usefulness is in the waveforms.
Hello DBrown,

Indeed, there are waveforms on the charts we read and trade. Both Mr Elliot and Mr Dow implemented the terms. For me it is obvious. Theory is available and well presented. I am certain we must arrive at the point of mastering along with our own (more and more) traders' experience.

Trade safe and Happy Easter,
Exnav

P.S. Maybe it was my fault by posting the picture. Everything for rigid robotic approach will be exploited and fail in the end
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #61,317
  • Apr 9, 2020 10:14am Apr 9, 2020 10:14am
Nice to see my friends checking me out.
You discuss i will chip in where necessary.

Thank you to Jesus.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wZf41U...ature=youtu.be
  • #61,318
  • Apr 9, 2020 10:17am Apr 9, 2020 10:17am
Quoting Exnav
{quote} Hello Protuberanec, Since I posted the picture and you possibly got it as a rule, I must specify it. The info was collected from this thread. But - it is interpretation, it's neither a guideline nor a rule to follow strictly and blindly. Impulse (motive wave) should be red evidently, manifest itself. Once you are in a recce with your scout, you must feel her pulse/ rhythm. Then, if you trade effectively, deploy your attack on the feeling. No reading, no feeling - withdraw. I mean, no any rigidity in counting. Market will show us what is...
Thanks again, I remember lessons fti about rigidity kills. and now my trading MO little similar to phil13, and I know that I just miss understand some fti lessons about waves and how managed position with Elliot waves.
  • #61,319
  • Apr 9, 2020 10:27am Apr 9, 2020 10:27am
Quoting fti
Nice to see my friends checking me out. You discuss i will chip in where necessary. Thank you to Jesus. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wZf41U...ature=youtu.be
Dear Fti,

It's great to see you, indeed. No any checking from my end. (Me, only chicken, perhaps. born to crawl cannot fly)
But your whipping us will be much appreciated.

Best regards,
Exnav
Not to Advance is to Fall Back
  • #61,320
  • Apr 9, 2020 10:29am Apr 9, 2020 10:29am
Quoting fti
{quote} Whats the problem with your wave count? You start abc Then find 2 and 3 If you find 4 you marry her to 5. Otherwise you keep looking. Regards
Thanks fti, just dont understand why I start from abc, I thought I must start from recognise 1wave then wait for correction and jump in second impulse wave. I think all problems with understanding cause different methodology of caunt like dbrown said.
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