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Quarantine | DeMaker strategy 63 replies

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5M Quarantine

  • #41
  • Edited 9:34pm Apr 4, 2020 9:15pm | Edited 9:34pm
Quoting FxQB15
{quote} Good post ozzie. One question.. if you have a buy signal but it forms under 50% mark, you will reject it?
Like everything in FX it all depends on how experienced you are at trading. I put the 50% mark out there to keep newbies on the right side of the trade. In the example below you see a downtrend and a pullback on 30/2020 and then on 31/3/2020 the downtrend resumes with a bearish candle. So on 1/4/ 2020 we're thinking short trades. Price does nothing but rise all day into the London session. My suggestion for newbies is just wait for price to come down under the 50% mark and look for a short signal. For the more experienced traders you see a long wick to the top on 31/3/2020 indicating there maybe some sellers lfet at the highs. When price is over the 50% mark you can look for sell setuos, ie: pin bars and engulfing candles. It's not until we get into 2/4/2020 and 3/4/2020 do we realise that we are in some heavy chop.

On days were you can clearly see that your in a down/uptrend the 50% mark typically won't get tested and you just need to wait for the set up candle.

Again, just my opinion on how to stay on the right side of the trade. Very interested to hear how you trade days that go against your daily basis.
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  • #42
  • Apr 4, 2020 10:22pm Apr 4, 2020 10:22pm
Quoting ozziedave
{quote} Like everything in FX it all depends on how experienced you are at trading. I put the 50% mark out there to keep newbies on the right side of the trade. In the example below you see a downtrend and a pullback on 30/2020 and then on 31/3/2020 the downtrend resumes with a bearish candle. So on 1/4/ 2020 we're thinking short trades. Price does nothing but rise all day into the London session. My suggestion for newbies is just wait for price to come down under the 50% mark and look for a short signal. For the more experienced traders you see...
It's a good heads up for newbies to keep 50% mark in their agenda till get enough trades under their belt. Better to be safe to confidence build up before discouragement with tougher trades and situations. Good explanation I support it, and that is why i posed the question to make sure we are on the same page. what I highly suggest for newbies are to stick to easy reads, anything suspicious stray away from. There are 20 decent pairs that each day you will have at least a few no brainers where you get the full body candle supported with overall trend and signal forms well below 50% mark for the take down.

Ask for me... well I would have been all over that wick trade and it was good for 100 firm.
in the next post I show how I would have traded the whole cad week.
Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #43
  • Apr 4, 2020 11:33pm Apr 4, 2020 11:33pm
Quoting FxQB15
{quote} Ask for me... well I would have been all over that wick trade and it was good for 100 firm. in the next post I show how I would have traded the whole cad week.
Waiting to hear more about how you trade the short term charts. I hope you don't mind if I share some of my charts and experiences in your thread.
  • #44
  • Apr 4, 2020 11:33pm Apr 4, 2020 11:33pm
Ok so CAD and how I would have traded:

26th Candle its full body bearish candle undisputed to go short on 27th
27th Candle it’s a spinner I sit out on those, it’s a pass.
30th Candle it’s a nice full body reverses defiantly going long on 31st
31st Candle I say enough of a body despite the big ass wick to be a go for short on 1st
1st Candle it’s spinner again I sit out, it’s a pass
2nd Candle I need only one glance to pass on this one as it is revealed big time how dog chop it is.


* The first chart on 27th.. I get one short trade (blue circle), price drops about 60 but reverses so if I don't bank any i sure as hell wont lose any and be out at BE.. so I don't get hurt there.
* Following trading is the 30th as I stated above it's a no go for me but even if i traded it i would have lost 30pip at most.
* next trading day 31st obvious long trade spikes up +140 so I should do well there probably end up with 100.
* next trading day 1st short signals come on top of the wick, this is the one we recommend for the newbies to pass.. if I would have not have taken action on the 1st signal definitely on the second one, either way good for minimum +50 or not at all still ok.
* following trading the 2nd, it's a no go for me as i stated above but even if i would have taken action would be the (blue box) area where it's winner.

So overall the pair was good for minimum 100 positive pips in such choppy PA.
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Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #45
  • Apr 4, 2020 11:42pm Apr 4, 2020 11:42pm
Quoting ozziedave
{quote} Waiting to hear more about how you trade the short term charts. I hope you don't mind if I share some of my charts and experiences in your thread.
Oh not at all buddy.. the more input from experience traders the better, i love it.

now about the short term chart... as I have explained it in post one.. I look for the pullback on 5m to form a signal by multiple failure to take the reverse in direction of my D1 sentiment.
let me know if I misunderstood.
Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #46
  • Edited 12:30am Apr 5, 2020 12:03am | Edited 12:30am
Quoting ozziedave
{quote} Very interested to hear how you trade days that go against your daily basis. {image}
About what I highlighted above as to how I trade when daily basis go wrong.
It's simple if I have a solid legit signal, I trade it and if I lose I lose it's about 20-30 pips and move on from that pair for that day. There will be losers but I won't be gun shy. Technically if it's there I don't hesitate especially that I don't have the luxury to trade London session so i deal with limited signal dose.
As you said if you're experienced trader there are many things you can do to read the chart, and pass riskier signals verses more textbook ones. I watch correlations as well so i am not involved in one direction off 3 different pairs, I pick one.
Based on my experience if I am wrong on the daily sentiment my signal does not form... the main confirmation for my signal is to show multiple Failures and created kinda of a concrete level to bounce, that is why I trade it with full confidence.. it's high probability so to say. Sure there will be fakeouts and there will be more fake out if you really not patient for the signal to fully form, can not be trigger happy. so there are a lot of lil details to be diligent about.
This is something that be more cleared when I am hands on with live trades, and the TE is there my footsteps will be there, no room for BS, lol.
let me know if I missed something.

Trade well.
Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #47
  • Apr 5, 2020 1:18am Apr 5, 2020 1:18am
One other example of when daily sentiment goes wrong and how i would handle it.
USD/JPY.. apr 2nd price reverses bullish while my sentiment from prior day was shorting. AS you see i get a signal, it's not a immediate fake out goes into some profit but goes on a full on fake out. I am able to escape this trade at BE if not some profit at worst case scenario even though I was fully wrong on daily basis. how.. now if you pay attention to 1st chart which is the daily, u/j is in a 350+ bearish dive but after the two strong bearish full body candle we get couple of wick chaotic candles then apr 1st showing it might be resuming back to bearish trend. This whole picture as of late puts me on alert that this signal might be a ify one so I take it but with caution, so when I see price is bouncing off the bottom no strength for bearish breakout then I will either bank what I can or at least move my stop to BE so at least I don't get hurt by it.
however, what i want to hit home is... even when falling in such reverse situation if you do get a signal it will not be a full on fakeout for most times due to strength of the signal which gives you leeway to act accordingly.
all above is nothing magical and commonsense for most part... it comes with practice trades day in day out as you gain experience

I hope it's useful.
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Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #48
  • Apr 5, 2020 8:52am Apr 5, 2020 8:52am
Quoting FxQB15
{quote} About what I highlighted above as to how I trade when daily basis go wrong. It's simple if I have a solid legit signal, I trade it and if I lose I lose it's about 20-30 pips and move on from that pair for that day. There will be losers but I won't be gun shy. Technically if it's there I don't hesitate especially that I don't have the luxury to trade London session so i deal with limited signal dose. As you said if you're experienced trader there are many things you can do to read the chart, and pass riskier signals verses more textbook ones....
That's an important point that I realized while I was backtesting your strategy, and is showing that usually a confirmed setups(with a clear bounced levels) not formed on that direction if you are wrong on the daily sentiment(price goes against you) , that makes you more confident while trading with this strategy ... thanks FxQB15
If you don't build your DREAM, Someone will hire to help build theirs ...
  • #49
  • Edited 1:39pm Apr 5, 2020 11:38am | Edited 1:39pm
Quoting drsa1970
{quote} That's an important point that I realized while I was backtesting your strategy, and is showing that usually a confirmed setups(with a clear bounced levels) not formed on that direction if you are wrong on the daily sentiment(price goes against you) , that makes you more confident while trading with this strategy ... thanks FxQB15
You're most welcome.
Yes if PA forms a PB and does not break out of it that means there was not enough buying power and nothing but some profit taking which further confirms by showing multiple failures or DB/DT before resuming for the test of Low's/Highs or trend continuation. If PA does break away the PB point or forms the PB too far up/down (Ozziedave's point above 50+%) then it's more likely the daily sentiment of ours could be doomed especially if there is no structure on the left from previous days. It's nothing but straight forward chart reading, fascinating stuff for true traders who are passionate about this stuff.
I think i said this before either in this thread or my other thread; The journey of trade is more exciting to me than the actual out come of the trade.

let us know your back-testing results if you like.
Thanks for your contribution in advance.


Trade well.
Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #50
  • Apr 5, 2020 12:19pm Apr 5, 2020 12:19pm
Quoting FxQB15
Ok so CAD and how I would have traded: 26th Candle its full body bearish candle undisputed to go short on 27th 27th Candle it’s a spinner I sit out on those, it’s a pass. 30th Candle it’s a nice full body reverses defiantly going long on 31st 31st Candle I say enough of a body despite the big ass wick to be a go for short on 1st 1st Candle it’s spinner again I sit out, it’s a pass 2nd Candle I need only one glance to pass on this one as it is revealed big time how dog chop it is. *
Hi FxQB15, I'm getting bored too and here I am, back on FF after quite some time. Pullback trading based on sound simple set ups is the most undervalued way of trading, at least on this forum.
I found interesting what you're doing here, just wanted to share with you how I read the daily PA on the USDCAD. We're clearly in an uptrend, it's maybe overextended but I still expected a retracement (20th to 27th) and a subsequent new high (higher or lower who knows). All the 3 candles from 27th to 31st show the intention to resume the uptrend. On the 27th we got an inverted hammer, on the 30th an engulfing candle and on the 31st we have a beautiful long upper wick going in the direction of the main trend, yes it has a negative body but it doesn't engulf the previous candle and it has a higher low.
Of all the 3 candles the last is what I liked the most, in fact I went long on the 1st.

Actually I did expect to see the price to go higher than it did, showing some weakness. I'll wait for the PA to show me the way.
It's just another way to look at the same infos.

Trade well
  • #51
  • Apr 5, 2020 12:55pm Apr 5, 2020 12:55pm
Quoting L.m
{quote} Hi FxQB15, I'm getting bored too and here I am, back on FF after quite some time. Pullback trading based on sound simple set ups is the most undervalued way of trading, at least on this forum. I found interesting what you're doing here, just wanted to share with you how I read the daily PA on the USDCAD. We're clearly in an uptrend, it's maybe overextended but I still expected a retracement (20th to 27th) and a subsequent new high (higher or lower who knows). All the 3 candles from 27th to 31st show the intention to resume the uptrend. On...
Right on buddy solid chart reading. I have the main trend always in back of my mind but the immediate momentum based on action of the last daily candle is what I put the most weight on if I want to trade that pair the following day. It's like the ol saying; What have you done for me lately, lol.

Perfect example would be the GBP/CHF... obviously the main Trend is bearish when it dropped for close to 2000 pip from the start of the crises but then the retrace of the main trend its a trend on its own with strong 2weeks bull move for 1000 pips all but one solid full body large size bull candles. Now after all this the candle that I am looking at to determine my sentiment for Monday's trading is nothing but the last candle, which is a solid full body (almost a engulf) bear candle, I am doing nothing but shorting that puppy on Monday if my signal forms. Now if I am in a short trade on Monday and I see PA is fking around with the overall trend on back of my mind, I will act accordingly then, but I won't be gun shy bcz of the main trend scenarios.

Love your diligent analysis and thanks for the post.


Trade well.
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Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #52
  • Apr 5, 2020 4:28pm Apr 5, 2020 4:28pm
I don't trade that pair, but I trade GU and GY of course that are very much correlated and they opened with a nice gap down. I have already a buy trade opened on both pairs and just set 2 pending sell orders, sort of hedging. Will see how it evolves, as you said main trend is down but the last 2 weeks may have turned things around.
  • #53
  • Apr 5, 2020 5:22pm Apr 5, 2020 5:22pm
Quoting L.m
I don't trade that pair, but I trade GU and GY of course that are very much correlated and they opened with a nice gap down. I have already a buy trade opened on both pairs and just set 2 pending sell orders, sort of hedging. Will see how it evolves, as you said main trend is down but the last 2 weeks may have turned things around.
I was long on G/U as well based on my long term method but I decided to bank the profit (+435pip) on Friday... but now I am SELL SELL on this will look for it today's trading.


Trade well.
Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #54
  • Edited 6:38pm Apr 5, 2020 6:26pm | Edited 6:38pm
The weekend gap it's sizeable one on some pairs over 50pips... so adjust your daily sentiment I know I had to change a few.
Just a heads up.


Trade well.
Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #55
  • Apr 5, 2020 9:32pm Apr 5, 2020 9:32pm
EUR/USD short... my daily sentiment is SS, got a nice DT 3 failures, CC 10ema confirmed... the risk is very minimal set SL would be 14pips.
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Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #56
  • Edited Apr 7, 2020 5:47am Apr 6, 2020 8:02am | Edited Apr 7, 2020 5:47am
This is my today's take with this technique, my first time with it. Just in demo.Will see how it evolves, so far in negative.

April 7h: closed in positive!
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  • #57
  • Apr 6, 2020 9:56am Apr 6, 2020 9:56am
Quoting BfromG
This is my today's take with this technique, my first time with it. Just in demo.Will see how it evolves, so far in negative. {image}
Hi Bf, thanks for posting your chart.
I recommend to look for divergence confirmation as well before getting involve and you need more failures before going long from where you did. When the highs gets taken out like that, either you need a fresh DB supported by Div or multi failures from the bottom you drawn on the left, in this case price did go deep enough to give you even one failures.
it's all good tho all part of reading the chart better and being patience for the signal to form and making sense.
E/J gave out signal on later on the chart pic below... as you see price dropped to Support line but also formed a DB with Div support.


Trade well
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Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #58
  • Apr 6, 2020 10:32am Apr 6, 2020 10:32am
I will post some of the signals given for Monday so far... This where I envy for not being able to trade the London session.
here is E/U.. As I posted earlier I got a short signal (first blue circle) which i took action on. Then price show a few positive pips then shot up which a tight stop would have been taken out about 15pips loss, but I wanted to see the reaction to the top sure enough it bounced off and bcz I could not watchdog it through London so I exited at BE. But later in London session price could not breakout long and it nicely gave a short signal again which this time shot down nicely right away for 30+, but fails to breakout for the real meet with a bear leg down, still good for +30 or at least +15 to recover the 15pips loss from earlier failed signal.
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Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
  • #59
  • Edited 7:58am Apr 7, 2020 5:49am | Edited 7:58am
April 8th: my take for today, long on USDCAD. Reasoning: bullish divergence (imo).

April 8th: stopped out, this one was countertrend, my fault ... !!
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  • #60
  • Apr 7, 2020 10:27am Apr 7, 2020 10:27am
Quoting BfromG
April 8th: my take for today, long on USDCAD. Reasoning: bullish divergence (imo). April 8th: stopped out, this one was countertrend, my fault ... !! {image}
Two problems my friend...1) The sentiment for cad/usd is bearish for Tuesday... 2) You don't take position based on one confirmation, you clearly do not have a DB to go with your div.
I recommend to read the 1st post clearly.


Trade well.
Nobody ever made a dime by panicking. Jim C
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