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Let's Trade Options

  • #17,461
  • Apr 2, 2020 1:49pm Apr 2, 2020 1:49pm
True low fuel cost helps the airlines, but they typically have contracts for fuel amount purchases at set prices well in advance of the burn date for the fuel. And they aren't burning so much fuel now. To keep their jets parked and all their staff employed will burn through a lot of cash, though. Idk what is going to happen with the airlines. They are up shit creek now and the US public does not really want to give them a paddle.

There is not enough money to bail out everybody....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,462
  • Apr 2, 2020 4:22pm Apr 2, 2020 4:22pm
Quoting The Fool
True low fuel cost helps the airlines, but they typically have contracts for fuel amount purchases at set prices well in advance of the burn date for the fuel. And they aren't burning so much fuel now. To keep their jets parked and all their staff employed will burn through a lot of cash, though. Idk what is going to happen with the airlines. They are up shit creek now and the US public does not really want to give them a paddle. There is not enough money to bail out everybody....
You can bet they are hedging with current price contracts right now to lock in these low prices. If Trump a can Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut oil production and bump up oil prices, that will be a huge cost savings going forward, whenever things get back to the norm.

The good thing about straight options is that AAL doesn't need to reach the target of $13 by Jun18 for it to be a profitable trade.....if it moves back up to $11-$12 sometimes in April, it will be a worthwhile trade.

(I consider a worthwhile trade any trade I can make $1000+ profit on, and that becomes much easier as you increase the number of contracts.....with 100 contracts, that's only a $0.1 move in the option price, with 50 it's only a $0.20 move and 25 contracts it's only a $0.40 move...and those moves are not spectacular moves when you see most trades move $1-$3 in profit....)
  • #17,463
  • Apr 3, 2020 9:21am Apr 3, 2020 9:21am
Quoting The Fool
This SPY put fly looks headed for a decent finish, might be worth max $1,00 maybe $1.10, I would be happy with 70c net. I have 2 other Apr3 put flys much lower, need to make up for those... {image}
good finish coming for this Apr03 put fly @$250....but only about 60c net (4x)...that at least covers the 2 other Apr03 put flys (way further south, worthless)....and a little profit left over.

I will load other SPY flys for the next 1-2 weeks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,464
  • Apr 3, 2020 9:27am Apr 3, 2020 9:27am
filled a SPY Jun call vert $299/300 for 9c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,465
  • Apr 3, 2020 9:50am Apr 3, 2020 9:50am
Quoting The Fool
I will load other SPY flys for the next 1-2 weeks.
Apr13 SPY puts $217/220/223 for .07
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,466
  • Apr 3, 2020 1:34pm Apr 3, 2020 1:34pm
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following: UAL Jun19 45 CALL @ $1.20 Should be good for some money....
Added to the following:

UAL Jun19 45 CALL @ $0.45, bringing the average down to $0.53

A small move up will be good money, so now we wait....
  • #17,467
  • Apr 3, 2020 1:38pm Apr 3, 2020 1:38pm
Just got hit on a bid for the following:

AAL Jun19 13 CALL @ $0.88, bringing the average down to $0.96

Same as above, a small move up will be good for some money.....tick tock.....
  • #17,468
  • Apr 3, 2020 2:31pm Apr 3, 2020 2:31pm
looking for a little bounce in equities next week, bot some Apr09 SPY $260 calls for $1.25
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,469
  • Apr 3, 2020 2:53pm Apr 3, 2020 2:53pm
Quoting The Fool
looking for a little bounce in equities next week, bot some Apr09 SPY $260 calls for $1.25
Straight Calls....be careful, you'll become a convert!!

Should be good for some money for you, though.....
  • #17,470
  • Apr 3, 2020 4:26pm Apr 3, 2020 4:26pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Straight Calls....be careful, you'll become a convert!! Should be good for some money for you, though.....
...if they make money I will grab it & not complain, but I will sell the $260 Apr8 calls if that opportunity looks good.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,471
  • Apr 3, 2020 10:21pm Apr 3, 2020 10:21pm
https://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/...hoo&yptr=yahoo

air passengers <10% of normal, how can the airlines survive? Nobody is gonna want to fly again until it's safe. Won't be safER until effective treatments are widely available and won't be safe until anyone can get vaccinated.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,472
  • Apr 5, 2020 9:21pm Apr 5, 2020 9:21pm
Quoting moneymaker2
{quote} Straight Calls....be careful, you'll become a convert!! Should be good for some money for you, though.....
looking to sell the Apr08 same strike calls for $1.25 or better...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,473
  • Apr 6, 2020 9:22am Apr 6, 2020 9:22am
Quoting The Fool
looking to sell the Apr08 same strike calls for $1.25 or better...
no...sold to close the Apr09 $260 calls for $5....had a tp of $5 and it was hit early, not complaining...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,474
  • Apr 6, 2020 9:28am Apr 6, 2020 9:28am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}no...sold to close the Apr09 $260 calls for $5....had a tp of $5 and it was hit early, not complaining...
Good job! At $375 profit per contract, I hope you had a bunch!!
  • #17,475
  • Apr 6, 2020 9:35am Apr 6, 2020 9:35am
It's butting up against a little resistance of the 5EMA on the Weekly chart now at about 261....if it can break through that, 275 (10EMA on the Weekly) will most likely be the next target....
  • #17,476
  • Apr 6, 2020 9:54am Apr 6, 2020 9:54am
Quoting moneymaker2
Good job! At $375 profit per contract, I hope you had a bunch!!
enough to buy catfood for a few months, nice to start the week with a win. I have a lot of SPY calls out July-Sept, between $275 and $325, I'm spreading on them....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,477
  • Apr 6, 2020 10:29am Apr 6, 2020 10:29am
Quoting moneymaker2
AAL Jun19 13 CALL @ $0.88, bringing the average down to $0.96.....
AAL flat on a rally day....I am looking at puts ...trying Apr24/May1 $8 calendar puts for 17c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,478
  • Apr 6, 2020 11:12am Apr 6, 2020 11:12am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}AAL flat on a rally day....I am looking at puts ...trying Apr24/May1 $8 calendar puts for 17c
Just stay nimble, because to me it looks like it will be heading towards >$12 by the end of the month...
  • #17,479
  • Edited 3:55pm Apr 6, 2020 3:23pm | Edited 3:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}AAL flat on a rally day....I am looking at puts ...trying Apr24/May1 $8 calendar puts for 17c
...filled, not 17c that'll hurt me if it's a total loss. I don't think air travel will be back to over 50% of what it was until they start having widespread, cheap antibody tests available. Re: those tests - it won't surprise me if those become mandatory. You pass, prove immunity, you go back to work, get on a plane, etc....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,480
  • Apr 6, 2020 3:33pm Apr 6, 2020 3:33pm
Are you certified?

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/06/...omic-recovery/

https://apnews.com/e4f2fc48e6052eaf6f80e9135e00cda0

https://www.raybiotech.com/covid-19-...apid-test-kit/

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...virus-n1176086
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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