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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #6,901
  • Mar 30, 2020 1:45pm Mar 30, 2020 1:45pm
Inserted Video
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #6,902
  • Mar 31, 2020 4:18am Mar 31, 2020 4:18am
#USOIL is about to possibly breakout as I analysed and mentioned in my weekly #technicalanalysis 2 days ago. However we need a little more confirmation so I will wait until end of today. On the fundamentals side USA has been talking to Saudi and Russia both to intervene in #oilpricewar to stabilise #oilprice .

Here is my analysis from March 28th:
https://lnkd.in/eHeNJpU

and here is the latest. 4H chart has broken the trend after visiting the reversal zone and is not waiting for a breakout after testing 20sma.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOIL Breakout Cooking Up March 31 2020 - Vikinsa Fibonacci Confluence Trading.png Size: 148 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #6,903
  • Mar 31, 2020 11:22am Mar 31, 2020 11:22am
Quoting vikinsa
#USOIL is about to possibly breakout as I analysed and mentioned in my weekly #technicalanalysis 2 days ago. However we need a little more confirmation so I will wait until end of today. On the fundamentals side USA has been talking to Saudi and Russia both to intervene in #oilpricewar to stabilise #oilprice . Here is my analysis from March 28th: https://lnkd.in/eHeNJpU and here is the latest. 4H chart has broken the trend after visiting the reversal zone and is not waiting for a breakout after testing 20sma. {image}

In my opinion, if the price breaks through 21.87 then it will go to 23.96 level. That will confirm a breakout at least for shorter term.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USOIL Breakout Cooking Up March 31 2020 -2 - Vikinsa Fibonacci Confluence Trading.png Size: 172 KB
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #6,904
  • Mar 31, 2020 12:14pm Mar 31, 2020 12:14pm
market has strong factors weighing it down and depressing it. any rally can be expected to be sold into.any upside seems very limited until something fundamentally changes
  • #6,905
  • Mar 31, 2020 2:04pm Mar 31, 2020 2:04pm
Quoting Kwame Freder
market has strong factors weighing it down and depressing it. any rally can be expected to be sold into.any upside seems very limited until something fundamentally changes
You couldn't be more right. The WTI low was $19.85 today and the high $21.70 closing at $19.99. It looks like that $20 is the support level.
  • #6,906
  • Mar 31, 2020 5:19pm Mar 31, 2020 5:19pm
I am buying double at every 1 dolar at the end i will wait for the price of 48.00 for Brent
  • #6,907
  • Mar 31, 2020 8:45pm Mar 31, 2020 8:45pm
At the moment, people are thinking that this is a good place to buy, while everyone thinks that they should. is it too easy to be profitable?
  • #6,908
  • Mar 31, 2020 10:01pm Mar 31, 2020 10:01pm
Hi
I used hang out in the USD.CAD thread. I've been here a while lol....

I work in the industry. I don't know if many people actually know how much the world depends on Oil.... years ago I was at whaling museum in Maui and they had some real good write ups on how much whale oil gave us the modern world.

Mother nature uses hydrocarbons to move energy around. I can't think we are as jokerish as those guys on whaling ships boiling blubber actually here in 2020.

I'm in a bunch of lithium plays, but if you look at how mother natures moves energy around generally.. hydrocarbons are where the storage is eventually gonna be.. and really the source of plastics etc which if we actually used properly wouldn't be an issue.

Anyways, I'm about to get massively long on it.... like this trade.. only comes around like... every 10 years.

** Edit - This chart is USD.CAD versus CL (WTI). The canadian and us economy are completely coupled - as moronic as the leadership is on both countries we both gonna pull through this in our own ways!!


Agree disagree etc ...
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  • #6,909
  • Mar 31, 2020 11:01pm Mar 31, 2020 11:01pm
Quoting catmes
At the moment, people are thinking that this is a good place to buy, while everyone thinks that they should. is it too easy to be profitable?
If you look at historical prices OIL seems attractive for medium term (a few years) investments. For short term (a few months) investments i don't know if we have seen the bottom yet (i doubt it) if you look at the fundamentals.

Starting of today the OPEC+ alliance has no more obligations regarding their quotas resulting in massive pumping -> more supply. Corona is far from over and has crippled multiple countries so the demand side has faded away.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #6,910
  • Mar 31, 2020 11:10pm Mar 31, 2020 11:10pm
The best way to think of the oil world is a moving train.

Right now that train is slowing down.

This, is the best example of whats about to happen..

Inserted Video


If you think toilet paper had a run... you got no idea how everything in the world works. Whats gonna happen at cushing when this train stops...

Greta...
  • #6,911
  • Mar 31, 2020 11:41pm Mar 31, 2020 11:41pm
Hello @ all,

I'm buying crude every dollar since 22. Even when it goes towards 15 $ I will still buy.

A world with such low oil price isn't possible...

Regards
  • #6,912
  • Apr 1, 2020 1:30am Apr 1, 2020 1:30am
Quoting chrissfx
Hello @ all, I'm buying crude every dollar since 22. Even when it goes towards 15 $ I will still buy. A world with such low oil price isn't possible... Regards
well, welcome to the new world !
  • #6,913
  • Apr 1, 2020 5:03am Apr 1, 2020 5:03am
Quoting vikinsa
{quote} In my opinion, if the price breaks through 21.87 then it will go to 23.96 level. That will confirm a breakout at least for shorter term. {image}
Traders, Last time I mentioned that on 4H timeframe a breakout was getting cooked up. The market tried 20sma but failed. However now it is trying again. So far it has been holding the support. So lets see what news and fundamentals do the USOIL

Inserted Video
Technical Analyst & Trader @ Vikinsa
  • #6,914
  • Apr 1, 2020 9:30am Apr 1, 2020 9:30am
Quoting vikinsa
{quote} Traders, Last time I mentioned that on 4H timeframe a breakout was getting cooked up. The market tried 20sma but failed. However now it is trying again. So far it has been holding the support. So lets see what news and fundamentals do the USOIL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoVEItIBBNg
I'm not sure which way it could go really. WTI prices are being supressed on all fronts now with the glut and lower demand. While all the fundamentals point to zero chance that it will move higher, the bigger question is how much lower could it possibly go. I'd be very hesitant to go long, but at the same time I don't think shorting at these levels is wise. Sometimes the view is better from the sidelines.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #6,915
  • Apr 1, 2020 10:03am Apr 1, 2020 10:03am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} I'm not sure which way it could go really. WTI prices are being supressed on all fronts now with the glut and lower demand. While all the fundamentals point to zero chance that it will move higher, the bigger question is how much lower could it possibly go. I'd be very hesitant to go long, but at the same time I don't think shorting at these levels is wise. Sometimes the view is better from the sidelines.
I agree. Only chance of it going up in the near future is if opec and russia come to some sort of agreement and begin cutting production or some miracle drug comes out that cures covid-19. i think we will either stay in range or continue to slump to lower levels
  • #6,916
  • Apr 1, 2020 11:36am Apr 1, 2020 11:36am
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} I agree. Only chance of it going up in the near future is if opec and russia come to some sort of agreement and begin cutting production or some miracle drug comes out that cures covid-19. i think we will either stay in range or continue to slump to lower levels
Every hope gets hammered down with big volume(5M chart).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #6,917
  • Apr 1, 2020 11:43am Apr 1, 2020 11:43am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Every hope gets hammered down with big volume(5M chart). {image}
I think interim bottom is in place......just looking left, the upper $19 mark has been supportive all week, as such, my thinking is that the longer bulls keep defending it then we are exposed to the mid $20 mark, just a patience thing now....
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  • #6,918
  • Apr 1, 2020 11:45am Apr 1, 2020 11:45am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} I'm not sure which way it could go really. WTI prices are being supressed on all fronts now with the glut and lower demand. While all the fundamentals point to zero chance that it will move higher, the bigger question is how much lower could it possibly go. I'd be very hesitant to go long, but at the same time I don't think shorting at these levels is wise. Sometimes the view is better from the sidelines.
Hey ET, just looking at structure alone, most current target is at that $14 mark me thinks , but key support for the week seems set. Current H1 HnS structure favors further weakness....
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #6,919
  • Apr 1, 2020 12:36pm Apr 1, 2020 12:36pm
Quoting Kwame Freder
{quote} I agree. Only chance of it going up in the near future is if opec and russia come to some sort of agreement and begin cutting production or some miracle drug comes out that cures covid-19. i think we will either stay in range or continue to slump to lower levels
That's a pretty spot on example of why WTI is such a dangerous trade right now. If OPEC and Russia agree on something, say over a weekend close, good luck to anybody who was short.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #6,920
  • Apr 1, 2020 12:37pm Apr 1, 2020 12:37pm
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Hey ET, just looking at structure alone, most current target is at that $14 mark me thinks , but key support for the week seems set. Current H1 HnS structure favors further weakness....
I'd be very surprised if it hit $14. That would mean we've reached a point where sellers are paying buyers to take the oil. As we've seen, crazier things have happened though.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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