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Trade Outside the Box (TOTB)

  • #341
  • Mar 31, 2020 2:48pm Mar 31, 2020 2:48pm
Quoting jdva
{quote} For your better understanding...my trading is based on the TOTB strategy and I do appreciate the OP's work and also SwingMan's support explicitly! I only made small adjustments according to my ideas and desires. That' all and nothing special. I also say thanks to OP for his understanding. I know that is not always naturally. BTW, I'm a fan of emmanuel7788 too! Happy trading, jdva
Any chance you could share your adjustments if not spoiling your strategy in any way, evolving any strategy is part of the game, thanks and great trades for you!
  • #342
  • Mar 31, 2020 2:51pm Mar 31, 2020 2:51pm
Quoting Emma7788-FAN
... imagine that your are in hawaii but all we must to be at home
No problem, I have accompaniment ...
Attached Image
  • #343
  • Mar 31, 2020 3:03pm Mar 31, 2020 3:03pm
I don't understand why we always trade 06.01 : 09:59 GMT.

London opens @ 8 GMT+1 instead of last week 8 GMT, so the big money flow comes 1 hour later in GMT terms.

Why don't we condiser this?
  • #344
  • Mar 31, 2020 3:08pm Mar 31, 2020 3:08pm
Quoting pedrobhs
Thanks guys I am not using MT4 I was coding the indicator on cTrader and noticed that different even though my time is right offset with summer time. either way I manage to make the indicator similar to @SwingMan, all credits to this fantastic gentleman, what I did was not as complex as his indicator, is basicaly a box wrapping the opening candles and a fibo with targets, I still need to add the text on lines not sure how to do it yet but I will get there eventually, here is a peak. {image}
Hi pedrobhs - about cTrader, I also have one pepperstone acct running on ctrader - I checked the ctrader community and although there is a large amount of indicators I could not find a box style indi.

If you don't mind would you share the code for your ctrader box indi?

However, just to make sure, I totally understand if you want to keep it private and I will respect your decision.

Thank you.
  • #345
  • Mar 31, 2020 3:15pm Mar 31, 2020 3:15pm
Quoting Alberto_Jazz
I don't understand why we always trade 06.01 : 09:59 GMT. London opens @ 8 GMT+1 instead of last week 8 GMT, so the big money flow comes 1 hour later in GMT terms. Why don't we condiser this?
Great question, been asked before

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post12797422

OP says trade GMT , nothing to do with when markets trade!

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #346
  • Mar 31, 2020 3:22pm Mar 31, 2020 3:22pm
Quoting Alberto_Jazz
I don't understand why we always trade 06.01 : 09:59 GMT...
Why ask so many? Because @Emma decided so, see #Post 1!

@nihilist wrote also: "but once London open changes we need to move the start time and finish time of box."
Why should we change the start time?

I have recommended several times to use my "Happy Hour" indicator, which statistically determines the hourly volatility. If one does that, everyone has the opportunity to choose a favorable interval for "his" broker, regardless of GMT.
  • #347
  • Mar 31, 2020 3:40pm Mar 31, 2020 3:40pm
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} Why ask so many? Because @Emma decided so, see #Post 1! @nihilist wrote also: "but once London open changes we need to move the start time and finish time of box." Why should we change the start time? I have recommended several times to use my "Happy Hour" indicator, which statistically determines the hourly volatility. If one does that, everyone has the opportunity to choose a favorable interval for "his" broker, regardless of GMT.
Not everyone needs an indicator to tell them that volatility will be higher when the market is open than when it is closed, it's called COMMON SENSE

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #348
  • Mar 31, 2020 4:43pm Mar 31, 2020 4:43pm
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} No problem, I have accompaniment ... {image}
Hi Swingman

Thank you for all.
  • #349
  • Mar 31, 2020 6:29pm Mar 31, 2020 6:29pm
Quoting Erebus
...Not everyone needs an indicator to tell them that volatility will be higher when the market is open than when it is closed, it's called COMMON SENSE
As always young man, you're right, but I need something like that!

I cannot know as quickly as you that on March 8th the lowest volatility was at 06:00, and today on April 1st at 07:00.
These are brokerage times, so if I have for my unbeatable system an entry at this time, I know that the volatility increases and does not fall as at 17:00.

For me it is important that I do not have to think about whether and which market is open or closed at 7:00 a.m., whether daylight saving time is, where I live or what is happening in London.
It may also be that my Australian broker has different dates for the Australian platform in Sydney than the English platform in London. No idea.
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  • #350
  • Mar 31, 2020 9:20pm Mar 31, 2020 9:20pm
Quoting SwingMan
{quote} As always young man, you're right, but I need something like that! I cannot know as quickly as you that on March 8th the lowest volatility was at 06:00, and today on April 1st at 07:00. These are brokerage times, so if I have for my unbeatable system an entry at this time, I know that the volatility increases and does not fall as at 17:00. For me it is important that I do not have to think about whether and which market is open or closed at 7:00 a.m., whether daylight saving time is, where I live or what is happening in London. It may also...
Great explanation Swingman...we can never know to much information. That is how we learn. Thanks for your valued inputs for I don't know how many years. Appreciated by many.
  • #351
  • Mar 31, 2020 11:15pm Mar 31, 2020 11:15pm
So I have made an EA for this system, its still not ready for any kind of live trading. I'm attaching it here for the group to test out and hopefully provide feed back to improve. The time should range should be calculated automatically, let me know if its now

There are 2 main methods to open trades,

  1. Placing pending ordered at the top and bottom of the box

    1. As soon price reaches the high or low it will open that position and delete the opposite position
    2. TP is set at 1x box range
    3. SL, will be triggered if bar opens beyond the opposite Limit
    4. There is a fail safe SL, should be larger than box range

  2. Waiting for the candle to close above below the box

    1. TP is set at 1x box range
    2. SL, will be triggered if bar opens beyond the opposite limit
    3. There is a fail safe SL, should be larger than box range
    4. max pt outside box is the % of the range that the bar will close beyond the range to open a trade, so if it is set to 0.5 that would be equal to the TP1 value


Current issues:

  1. If SL is triggered, should an opposite trade be permitted?
  2. no partial close

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 TOTB .ex4   306 KB | 395 downloads
  • #352
  • Apr 1, 2020 3:23am Apr 1, 2020 3:23am
Quoting pedrobhs
{quote} Any chance you could share your adjustments if not spoiling your strategy in any way, evolving any strategy is part of the game, thanks and great trades for you!
If you can follow OP's rules precisely with patience you should be able to make money with this method especially during these volatile times. But as always note: No gain without pain!
I'm mainly a ultra shortterm impatient trader hence I'm trying to make profits very quickly. Therefore I try to take advantage of the breakout momentum as early as possible. So I'm watching all 28 pairs and make most entries on M30 close outside the range. That may be sometimes dangerous and because of it I cannot recommend to do it...if you do not have good experience in technical analysis and pattern recognition. You have to find the daily trend with SwngMan's indicators, for instance. Also you should have a certain feeling for the markets/pairs which I'm unable to describe.
If feeling wrong on entries I exit them at once. Therefore my method is very discretionary ant not suitable for everyone.
Moreover I have a daily goal of 100 EUR with 1:1 risk and a hit rate of 70-80%. If achieved that daily target I exit all positions and enjoy the day.

I don't want to mislead people by my strategy/method and do expressly recommend OP's strategy and rules which are successful as well!

Good luck, jdva
I never lose - either I win or I learn...
  • #353
  • Edited 5:06am Apr 1, 2020 4:35am | Edited 5:06am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Not everyone needs an indicator to tell them that volatility will be higher when the market is open than when it is closed, it's called COMMON SENSE
you are correct, volatility clearly starts at market open, and in post 1 it clearly states, 1hr before European open,
op charts now no longer show this because adjustments have not been made. ive adjusted mine and i will be trading from original box time set, 1hr before Eu open, this makes more sense to me.
Attached Image
  • #354
  • Apr 1, 2020 4:52am Apr 1, 2020 4:52am
Quoting jado911
So I have made an EA for this system, its still not ready for any kind of live trading. I'm attaching it here for the group to test out and hopefully provide feed back to improve. The time should range should be calculated automatically, let me know if its now There are 2 main methods to open trades, Placing pending ordered at the top and bottom of the box As soon price reaches the high or low it will open that position and delete the opposite position TP is set at 1x box range SL, will be triggered if bar opens beyond the opposite Limit There is...
Nice work. I will be testing. Many thanks for your input and contribution.
  • #355
  • Apr 1, 2020 7:00am Apr 1, 2020 7:00am
Quoting nihilist23uk
@ emma7788-fan why have you not adjusted your trading box times, europe and london are now in day light saving GMT+1 so do you not need to move your box to start from 7am instead of 6am ?
I think the box should always have been the way it is right now. 3 hours before UK open and only 1 hour after UK open. All the big moves usually start happening after 9am UK time and the box is set to take full advantage of these movements now. That's my 2 cents.
  • #356
  • Apr 1, 2020 8:03am Apr 1, 2020 8:03am
examples of GU buy and an AUDJPY "No trade" due to bar closing more than 25%(pink lines) outside box
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  • #357
  • Apr 1, 2020 8:35am Apr 1, 2020 8:35am
Happy Wednesday fellas
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  • #358
  • Apr 1, 2020 8:36am Apr 1, 2020 8:36am
Quoting jdva
{quote} If you can follow OP's rules precisely with patience you should be able to make money with this method especially during these volatile times. But as always note: No gain without pain! I'm mainly a ultra shortterm impatient trader hence I'm trying to make profits very quickly. Therefore I try to take advantage of the breakout momentum as early as possible. So I'm watching all 28 pairs and make most entries on M30 close outside the range. That may be sometimes dangerous and because of it I cannot recommend to do it...if you do not have good...
Hi @jdva,

With your own expierence with TOTB, have you made a statistic of the pairs that have achieved the most times the TP?

thx
  • #359
  • Apr 1, 2020 8:41am Apr 1, 2020 8:41am
Quoting jado911
examples of GU buy and an AUDJPY "No trade" due to bar closing more than 25%(pink lines) outside box {image} {image}
I have also made an EA today, been testing it on EG and EA, with slightly different rules: I use a 1:1 TP /SL, based on volatility (ATR). Reason is, depending on where the candle closes, the SL at bottom of box (for a long trade) makes the R:R really skewed, sometimes risking 1 to gain 0.35 for example.

I set the open order function only at the open of the candle, like the initial rules (so not a pending order like you suggested). Also, another filter I added is a limit of 4 hours before a trade is triggered. It just makes more sense to me in this way, to get away from PA stalling in the box too long.

Anyway, on both pairs the results were convincing for the last quarter, especially EG, really consistent growth.
So I made the exact same backtest on both pairs, for 2018:
- EURGBP: -18.6% (-1861€ on a 10k account), 36.7% WR, 68 trades.
- EURAUD: -15.8% (-1587€ on a 10k account), 37.9% WR, 58 trades.

So seems nice in the short run, but you get rekt in the medium / long term. I know a lot of people don't like when you demonstrate that an idea has ultimately a negative expectancy, but I'm just sharing my results for those that are interested.

If you do get a rising equity curve slope, please share what settings or rules you used, we can compare 2018 like that. And if you don't get a PF>1, please also share as it might save some people a lot of time doing research / manual backtesting for nothing.

Thanks,
  • #360
  • Apr 1, 2020 8:46am Apr 1, 2020 8:46am
Quoting Luciano26
Happy Wednesday fellas {image}
Why are you sharing this screenshot? Looked at the trades and it has nothing to do with the method described here, so what's your point?
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