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Let's Trade Options

  • #17,421
  • Mar 24, 2020 10:44am Mar 24, 2020 10:44am
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following: SPY Apr1 242 CALL @ $3.10 Should make money if they ever pass that Phase 3 bill in the senate.....
Out of the following:

SPY Apr1 242 CALL @ $8.20 up from $3.10

Probably has more room up, but I'll take this to the bank.....
  • #17,422
  • Mar 24, 2020 1:52pm Mar 24, 2020 1:52pm
I had Jun VXX $25 puts that all came off today, profit was just too fat to resist, about $1.50 or so, a big one for me.

That trade will likely be there again.....

I bot some cheap SPX and sPY put flys, targeting 2,200 to 2,000 by the end of the month. The premise is that the market will slide again when virus data has exploded and further econ data rolls in. The Apr3 NFP is going to be horrendous.

We prolly see futher upside this week if/when the rescue package comes out of congress; I will wait for another vIX ramp to get into short VIX trades again.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,423
  • Mar 24, 2020 1:54pm Mar 24, 2020 1:54pm
Quoting moneymaker2
Out of the following: SPY Apr1 242 CALL @ $8.20 up from $3.10 Probably has more room up, but I'll take this to the bank.....
Good job. It'll pay to have index calls running in the coming months, you can see the kinds of moves they will be putting on.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,424
  • Mar 25, 2020 11:04am Mar 25, 2020 11:04am
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following: FDX Apr17 140 CALL @ $0.75 Couldn't get the 135s to come off the Bid, so got these instead.....
Out of the following:

FDX Apr17 140 CALL @ $1.75 up from $0.75

Didn't want to get out just yet, but had an order in to get out at a $1 move, so it got hit. Didn't think it would move that much this morning.

That's okay, though, because I had a ton of contracts, so that's decent money......
  • #17,425
  • Edited 9:22pm Mar 25, 2020 8:52pm | Edited 9:22pm
VIX ranged over 30 pts yesterday, rose some today. I am looking for another test of the index lows seen Friday. We have some atrocious data to come in and alarming virus stats. But the system is drowning in liquidity and the atrocities novelty will wear off. I'd guess the bears have just another week or two to put on dramatic disco moves.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-03-25_1807VIX.png Size: 98 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,426
  • Mar 26, 2020 2:00am Mar 26, 2020 2:00am
vaccines and therapies

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotec...e-workers-fall

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/25/ho...e-coronavirus/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,427
  • Mar 26, 2020 10:40am Mar 26, 2020 10:40am
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following: BP Apr17 23 CALL @ $0.91 Should be good for some money...
Out of the following:

BP Apr17 23 CALL @ $3.30 up from $0.91

Now THAT is good money..

I think I'll start my weekend a little early. I'm going to lunch and the movies...well, actually the dining room and Netflix, but still......
  • #17,428
  • Mar 27, 2020 8:54am Mar 27, 2020 8:54am
USO at a new all-time low....<$4.50. I am waiting for $2.xx
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,429
  • Mar 27, 2020 9:01am Mar 27, 2020 9:01am
USO issues a billion new shares at $4.32

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...72_uso-s3a.htm
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,430
  • Mar 27, 2020 9:43am Mar 27, 2020 9:43am
Russia maybe blinks first as reality of pandemic effects set in?

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/e...085246800.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,431
  • Mar 27, 2020 10:00am Mar 27, 2020 10:00am
spot prices as low as $8/bbl for some grades now.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g...-idUSKBN21D2M2
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,432
  • Mar 27, 2020 2:55pm Mar 27, 2020 2:55pm
In the following:

UAL Jun19 65 CALL @ $0.83 average

Would not split the bid, so I had to nickel and dime the Ask down....but I have a bunch of it....
  • #17,433
  • Mar 27, 2020 3:02pm Mar 27, 2020 3:02pm
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following: UAL Jun19 65 CALL @ $0.83 average Would not split the bid, so I had to nickel and dime the Ask down....but I have a bunch of it....
Something a little weird:

Right after I bought it, the spread widened from $0.69 Bid/$0.87 Ask to $0.69 Bid and $1.45 Ask on all levels...and the Ask started coming down by $0.02 increments, until it is now back down to $0.88. I've seen them spike like that, but not all levels in depth at the same time, and then all wind down at $0.02 increments....has to be some kind of automatic function that causes that, because I am sure there were some hard Ask prices out there at $0.90 still.....
  • #17,434
  • Mar 27, 2020 4:10pm Mar 27, 2020 4:10pm
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following: UAL Jun19 65 CALL @ $0.83 average ....
I have been eyeing the US airlines, being patient. There's at least 2-3 months of extreme pain in store for them. I'd like to see them fall below the recent low at least.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,435
  • Mar 27, 2020 8:16pm Mar 27, 2020 8:16pm
Well, the way I see it, they are going to do great coming out of this, especially being able to lock in low fuel prices with extremely low oil futures now. And when this Phase 3 bill finally gets signed, they will get all the relief they need for now. June 19 being nearly three months out, I think things will have slowly started getting back to some flights on a regular basis. I think it is really going to want to get up around $50-$55 as soon as it can bust through that resistance at about the $44 level... It doesn't have to go up much to be profitable, because I have a lot since it was so cheap. And, if it goes the other way first, I'll just add to it at a cheaper price. Or maybe get a lower strike price. But I think in 3 months it will be up around $55.....
  • #17,436
  • Mar 27, 2020 9:29pm Mar 27, 2020 9:29pm
well, good luck. I'll look for more time than June if I get in at all. People are going to be skittish about flying after the death tolls of April-May....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,437
  • Mar 29, 2020 4:25pm Mar 29, 2020 4:25pm
Stimulus political drama in the rearview, grim virus statistics to keep coming thru most of April, alarming econ data just bitter icing on the death cake. I will be very surprised if we don't print new index lows in the coming weeks. SnP 2,000 or lower still in play, imho.

NYC could get so bad that they could halt trading, close the exchanges....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,438
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:18pm Mar 29, 2020 5:18pm
I could be wrong though. The incessant bad news could have a numbing effect. Greed could be something that survives that. With all the liquidity sloshing around, it has to go somewhere besides stacks of cash to the Moon.

As usual, I am shooting at bears and bulls from the same shotgun.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,439
  • Mar 29, 2020 11:29pm Mar 29, 2020 11:29pm
wti dipped under $20 in early trade. I think April will see further lows, just guessing but maybe <$15. Watch OIL for a dip towards $3...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-03-29_2127oil.png Size: 147 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,440
  • Mar 30, 2020 3:18pm Mar 30, 2020 3:18pm
Quoting moneymaker2
In the following: UAL Jun19 65 CALL @ $0.83 average Would not split the bid, so I had to nickel and dime the Ask down....but I have a bunch of it....
Added to the following:

UAL Jun19 65 CALL @ $0.25, bringing the average down to $0.44

And now, we wait.....
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