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The Swamp

  • #58,081
  • Mar 28, 2020 8:29pm Mar 28, 2020 8:29pm
Quoting The Fool
Mother Nature could be saying "enough"....
yep, hurricane season starts in 2 months.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #58,082
  • Mar 28, 2020 8:35pm Mar 28, 2020 8:35pm
corona sucks.. Living on the edge..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #58,083
  • Mar 28, 2020 8:40pm Mar 28, 2020 8:40pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} The story goes that they closed the NYSE after 9/11 not because of the market drop, but because people were afraid (en masse) to go into the City to work.....they kind of had downtown lockdown then. We could see it again for this new threat.
It looks like a similar situation, but worse. 50% of the people around you has the potential of a suicide bomber. Even friends, family, emergency workers, and everyone else.. And you can't tell one from the other. The virus has the potential to be everywhere already. We started testing a month back with very few test.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #58,084
  • Mar 29, 2020 3:17am Mar 29, 2020 3:17am
.... ....
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #58,085
  • Mar 29, 2020 4:18am Mar 29, 2020 4:18am
http://www.china.org.cn/photos/2020-...t_75873354.htm

First China-Europe freight train leaves Wuhan, marking restoration of operation

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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #58,086
  • Mar 29, 2020 4:27am Mar 29, 2020 4:27am
Quoting DMA Trader
http://www.china.org.cn/photos/2020-...t_75873354.htm First China-Europe freight train leaves Wuhan, marking restoration of operation {image}
9,400 medical workers in Spain infected? I caught the tail end. Did i hear right?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #58,087
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:04am Mar 29, 2020 5:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 9,400 medical workers in Spain infected? I caught the tail end. Did i hear right?
just in

SPAIN REGISTERS RECORD 838 NEW CORONAVIRUS DEATHS IN 24 HOURS, BRINGING TOTAL NUMBER OF DEATHS TO 6,528; COUNTRY NOW HAS 78,797 CONFIRMED CASES

so charts were true about Spain trajectory

USA is next
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #58,088
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:08am Mar 29, 2020 5:08am
Quoting DMA Trader
going worse than Italy USA already has 120.000 cases .... 2000 deaths {image}
New York
Catalonia + Madrid -=> Spain

Spain will be the next Italy probably worse.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #58,089
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:09am Mar 29, 2020 5:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 9,400 medical workers in Spain infected? I caught the tail end. Did i hear right?
You have it right...

"... Como Marta, 9.444 sanitarios se han contagiado, según los últimos datos oficiales, difundidos el viernes. Un tremendo 14%, casi el doble que Italia..."
[Like Marta, 9,444 health personnel have been infected, according to the latest official data, released on Friday. A tremendous 14%, almost double that of Italy]

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-...hago-algo.html
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #58,090
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:11am Mar 29, 2020 5:11am
Quoting gatorinla
Yesterday's new death number was 401. On trajectory, the next one may be, 669 ish. The following day 1,110. Depending on curve, reaching 10k or more by Easter looks realistic. 1 to 2.5 million confirmed infections looks reasonable by Easter. If the testing continues at current pace. The testing may not count those who have already recovered. Another test is supposed to be coming for that. The true infection rate may already be in the millions. Stay safe.. 51 of the Italian doctors treating the sick have died. Add a higher number...
The following day was less % than previous. The new % was 24%. Instead of 669 deaths. The number is 525, 144 less. Not really enough days to get a good reading. The % dropped some in this new number. At 24% (latest %) using the "rule of 72" The death rate number should double about every 3 days.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #58,091
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:13am Mar 29, 2020 5:13am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} You have it right... "... Como Marta, 9.444 sanitarios se han contagiado, según los últimos datos oficiales, difundidos el viernes. Un tremendo 14%, casi el doble que Italia..." [Like Marta, 9,444 health personnel have been infected, according to the latest official data, released on Friday. A tremendous 14%, almost double that of Italy] https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-...hago-algo.html
Thats coming to the u.s. because of lack of PPE.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #58,092
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:17am Mar 29, 2020 5:17am
Europe needs to do something stimulus on larger scale - CoronaBonds or some unlimited QE ? to weaken the EUR

but this week will be from Wednesday (ADP) to Thursday (Claims ) to Friday (NFP) more into weaken the USD -
or some EUR selling at the beginning of the week to some usd selling later on the week.

Equity should dive all week - since we have worse news than expected in Europe - no progress. so USA will probably have the same path

if you put SMA of 3/5 there is no progress on Italy on cases/deaths. so lock down will be longer than everyone expects. and also recession ... hard to see a V shape at this point. the longer it stays shut the bigger the consequences on economy and many bankruptcy's

imho this is the trend for now.

will add to my portfolio on this drop again.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #58,093
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:21am Mar 29, 2020 5:21am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Thats coming to the u.s. because of lack of PPE.
I think that the chart says it all...

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The US Will beat everyone except Turkey maybe if they don't take hard measures now.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #58,094
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:22am Mar 29, 2020 5:22am
Quoting DMA Trader
Europe needs to do something stimulus on larger scale - CoronaBonds or some unlimited QE ? to weaken the EUR but this week will be from Wednesday (ADP) to Thursday (Claims ) to Friday (NFP) more into weaken the USD - or some EUR selling at the beginning of the week to some usd selling later on the week. Equity should dive all week - since we have worse news than expected in Europe - no progress. so USA will probably have the same path if you put SMA of 3/5 there is no progress on Italy on cases/deaths. so lock down will be longer than everyone expects....
The locked down area, as of 8 March 2020, covered the entirety of the region of Lombardy, in addition to fourteen provinces in Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, and Marche. This area included the cities of Milan and Venice, and comprises three separate areas (around Lombardy, around Venice, and another zone surrounding San Marino). The affected area is populated by over sixteen million people, roughly a quarter of the Italian population.[25] Quarantines covered an area of approximately 56,000 square kilometres (22,000 sq mi).[23]

So we have 3 weeks of lock down Lombardy and no progress yet.
this is very concerning. ... USA still behind Italy 14-21 days.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #58,095
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:29am Mar 29, 2020 5:29am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} I think that the chart says it all... {image} The US Will beat everyone except Turkey maybe if they don't take hard measures now.

i've seen a picture with - country's that used mask and country's that are not using mask (those with progress are all with mask ) here we just need to have mask at all times.
maybe it was a lie with the mask so they have it on medicals. and yes mask cannot protect you from virus you are protecting others.
but if all people use mask it's game changer - and this is what you see on China, S Korea, Japan, Singapore - HK
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #58,096
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:33am Mar 29, 2020 5:33am
Quoting DMA Trader
Europe needs to do something stimulus on larger scale - CoronaBonds or some unlimited QE ? to weaken the EUR but this week will be from Wednesday (ADP) to Thursday (Claims ) to Friday (NFP) more into weaken the USD - or some EUR selling at the beginning of the week to some usd selling later on the week. Equity should dive all week - since we have worse news than expected in Europe - no progress. so USA will probably have the same path if you put SMA of 3/5 there is no progress on Italy on cases/deaths. so lock down will be longer than everyone expects....
Equity's optimism is too bright to me. I think the lockdowns will need to be longer than politicians are stating. Lack of commerce carried forward, should weigh more on equities. The amount of money the government promised. Will not replenish the savings, and all the wealth spent. People will build back their reserves long after the crises ends. This process of "replenishing the nest egg". Will take much longer, than it took to drain it. That should remove/slow a lot of discretionary spending going forward. Postponing new car purchases, and other non essential purchases. I think equities pricing will be reset at lower multiples. Due to lack of demand. Family and home oriented stocks may do best.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #58,097
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:35am Mar 29, 2020 5:35am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} I think that the chart says it all... {image} The US Will beat everyone except Turkey maybe if they don't take hard measures now.
Sadly my daughter is on that front line.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #58,098
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:36am Mar 29, 2020 5:36am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i've seen a picture with - country's that used mask and country's that are not using mask (those with progress are all with mask ) here we just need to have mask at all times. maybe it was a lie with the mask so they have it on medicals. and yes mask cannot protect you from virus you are protecting others. but if all people use mask it's game changer - and this is what you see on China, S Korea, Japan, Singapore - HK
Interesting and good to know, but why there is no government ordering for masks being mandatory and do whatever it takes to produce them ?
Can't the FED, the ECB and the other central banks print 2 billion each and buy them ?
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #58,099
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:38am Mar 29, 2020 5:38am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} I think that the chart says it all... {image} The US Will beat everyone except Turkey maybe if they don't take hard measures now.
Turkey, gateway to Europe and Asia. That train shown earlier must pass through there. Russia should be getting this soon too.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #58,100
  • Mar 29, 2020 5:39am Mar 29, 2020 5:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Sadly my daughter is on that front line.
sorry, and yes, sadly, I think that we all have family at risk.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
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