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Bronco Capital's ABCD Harmonic Pattern Journal 94 replies

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The Bucking Bronco

  • #4,241
  • Mar 28, 2020 6:46am Mar 28, 2020 6:46am
As I said I just gave an idea.
The analysys must be (and actually can well be...) much more precise and punctual!
Note that the dialectic between Diagonal TL and Horizontal TL is constant... and horizontal are always more valuable!

Often we call deception our wrong representation!
Every day in front of our screens we witness the eternal fight between Bulls and Bears.
And it's a real fight.
The cases of real manipulation are few and isolated: as in the case of ECB and Fed purchases these days.
This is why I'm talking of "Non-Technical" Bulls.
  • #4,242
  • Mar 28, 2020 6:58am Mar 28, 2020 6:58am
Quoting Jupiter
As I said I just gave an idea. The analysys must be (and actually can well be...) much more precise and punctual! Note that the dialectic between Diagonal TL and Horizontal TL is constant... and horizontal are always more valuable!
yes, and thanks for that. only wanted to at my one, two ideas. or rather, point out where i would have been mislead

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Often we call deception our wrong representation!
very good point, i must note .. "self deception".

this one shows very nicely i think
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  • #4,243
  • Edited 10:14am Mar 28, 2020 9:58am | Edited 10:14am
Quoting Jupiter
Often we call deception our wrong representation!
Very often we call deception our disorientation, as well.
> Disorientation could be produced by our ignorance: we don't know the schema that we are facing.
> Disorientation could be produced by a too fast and quick action/manoeuvre by the enemy.

In both cases, if one try to think accurately, this situation is produced by having wrong expectactions!
Yes.
If Livermore was so interested in Psychology... I, by my side, am seriously interested in Epistemology: the study of knowledge and its acquisition.

My point is that:
it is advantageous to possess a variety of responses that can be applied rapidly to gain sustenance, avoid danger,
and diminish the adversary’s capacity for surprising action…
"To shape and adapt to change one cannot be passive; instead one must take the initiative.” used to say Col. Boyd. (already so much quoted)
In other words, the accuracy and the speed with which individuals can revise their Mental Road Maps in the face of new realities will facilitate their survival.

My opinion is that it is basically ignorance and bad education
that close traders in an amorphous, menacing, and unpredictable world of uncertainty, doubt, mistrust, confusion, disorder, fear, panic,...
  • #4,244
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:20am Mar 28, 2020 10:20am
Observe-Orient-Decide-Act.

Our continuous process of mental map building allows us to:
- make sense of our observations,
- orient ourselves in conditions of danger,
- and take action... based upon decisions that reflect updated realities.

OODA is a loop, not a linear sequence.
Our decisions and actions generate new observations that require renewed orientation and fresh decisions.
The advantage in battle goes to the side that operates with the most rapid loops,
adapting to changing conditions
(conscious of the possibility of confusion and/or disorientation!)
  • #4,245
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:26am Mar 28, 2020 10:26am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote}I, by my side, am seriously interested in Epistemology: the study of knowledge and its acquisition.
nice.. i've studied and worked a lot in the field of epistemology (philosophy), it actually is (or was) my special field. of course i have also thought a lot about applying insights to the field of trading. there's alot to say about that.

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My opinion is that it is basically ignorance and bad education that close traders in an amorphous, menacing, and unpredictable world of uncertainty, doubt, mistrust, confusion, disorder, fear, panic,...
don't exactly understand what you mean by "bad education", but the idea that bad action comes from lack of knowledge is warranted well, it's socrates
  • #4,246
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:31am Mar 28, 2020 10:31am
That's the reality. The extreme Bulls effort failed! And down we went.
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  • #4,247
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:37am Mar 28, 2020 10:37am
Bad education is all the nonsense that retailers believe! Convinced that they are true.
Bad education are all the bullshit you read here on FF: garbage in, garbage out.
  • #4,248
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:37am Mar 28, 2020 10:37am
Quoting Jupiter
That's the reality. The extreme Bulls effort failed! And down we went. {image}
it's fantastic. i love this. damn, it's spontaneous order – chaos.
millions of hands, bringing about structure out of nothing; no central plan, but still "as if guided by an invisible hand".
even if no money was to be made, this is one of the most interesting fields to study for a theoretician
  • #4,249
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:39am Mar 28, 2020 10:39am
Wyckoff: the Composite Operator.
Dow: Market discounts everything... and everything means everything! All is in the chart.
  • #4,250
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:43am Mar 28, 2020 10:43am
On monday everything will be different and everything will be the same! Yeah.

Jesse Livermore: "There is nothing new in Wall Street.
There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills.
Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”
  • #4,251
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:53am Mar 28, 2020 10:53am
Quoting karuner
it's fantastic. i love this. damn, it's spontaneous order – chaos.
Market has a profound logic.
Only ignorants can believe in Random Walk.
  • #4,252
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:57am Mar 28, 2020 10:57am
Quoting Jupiter
On monday everything will be different and everything will be the same! Yeah. Jesse Livermore: "There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”
nothing new under the sun, history repeats itself, i fully agree.
so trader must learn the things that never change, and must learn to cope with what constantly changes.

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Market has a profound logic.
Only ignorants can believe in Random Walk.
again: agree .. now apply to biological evolution in the realm of nature ;-)

well, random walk exists in uninformed retail traders account performance curve
  • #4,253
  • Mar 28, 2020 10:59am Mar 28, 2020 10:59am
That's the point.
Napoleon—“The battlefield is a scene of constant chaos. The winner will be the one who controls that chaos, both his own and the enemy’s.”

And here chaos means exactly chaos... not a new order of new level!
  • #4,254
  • Mar 28, 2020 11:02am Mar 28, 2020 11:02am
  • #4,255
  • Mar 28, 2020 11:20am Mar 28, 2020 11:20am
this thread is gold
  • #4,256
  • Mar 28, 2020 11:58pm Mar 28, 2020 11:58pm
Quoting Jupiter
"Become a Wall Street Detective!"
Quoting Jupiter
Bad education is all the nonsense that retailers believe! Convinced that they are true.
Bad education are all the bullshit you read here on FF: garbage in, garbage out.

“I consider that a man's brain originally is like a little empty attic, and you have to stock it with such furniture as you choose.
A fool takes in all the lumber of every sort that he comes across,
so that the knowledge which might be useful to him gets crowded out, or at best is jumbled up with a lot of other things,
so that he has a difficulty in laying his hands upon it.
Now the skillful workman is very careful indeed as to what he takes into his brain-attic.
He will have nothing but the tools which may help him in doing his work, but of these he has a large assortment, and all in the most perfect order.
It is a mistake to think that that little room has elastic walls and can distend to any extent.
Depend upon it there comes a time when for every addition of knowledge you forget something that you knew before.
It is of the highest importance, therefore, not to have useless facts elbowing out the useful ones.”

― Arthur Conan Doyle, (Sherlock Holmes) - A Study in Scarlet
  • #4,257
  • Edited 12:17am Mar 29, 2020 12:06am | Edited 12:17am
Quoting karuner
musicians know this very well.
It is exactly the metaphor / similitude that I love to use most.
That "State of Grace", made by the mix between knowledge and improvisation.
I’ve been listening to this for years and it still feels like the first time.
Petrucci playing is exactly what I mean about "to be in the zone"!
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  • #4,258
  • Mar 29, 2020 1:16am Mar 29, 2020 1:16am
DAX. Where are we on a H1.
Vertical line is Friday open.
Note the Opposite Patterns forming and the Level of actual Support.
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  • #4,259
  • Mar 29, 2020 2:34am Mar 29, 2020 2:34am
Quoting Jupiter
{quote} It is exactly the metaphor / similitude that I love to use most.
i believe we have some compatible ideas

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DAX. Where are we on a H1.
Vertical line is Friday open.
Note the Opposite Patterns forming and the Level of actual Support.
i know not so much about many patterns . three or four times this week market said "no" at about 10k.
friday was going down to 9500 (not very fast though) and no strong rejection anymore, closing near the level (aftermarkt though).
what can we do but wait and see if 9500 breaks or holds? zone below probably a vacuum, and "nature abhors vacuum"..
  • #4,260
  • Mar 29, 2020 10:08am Mar 29, 2020 10:08am
then again level was not violated, no lower low etc...
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