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Currencies affected by China's Economy

  • #41
  • Oct 13, 2014 3:26pm Oct 13, 2014 3:26pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} ...you mean this post??? {quote}
  • #42
  • Oct 13, 2014 3:39pm Oct 13, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting Ryan420
The PBoC actively intervenes if the currency surpasses +/-2% of their daily fix (9:15pm us-et) by using their foreign currency reserves(usd) or creating Yuan. The central bank can then open their fix the next day, depending on their balance of domestic & foreign ccy. Usd/Cny has highly liquid derivatives that Asian banks use to trade the rate via binary & plain options.
hmmm...I guess the question now is how to get the currencies 'daily fix' figures?...
  • #43
  • Oct 13, 2014 3:45pm Oct 13, 2014 3:45pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Tnx buddy.
I just remember that was FXCM.com, you can click on "Products" page and you can see that you can trade USD/CHN, around 3 pips spread, leverage 1:50 with margin as little as 50$.
Love the game, love the markets!
  • #44
  • Oct 13, 2014 3:54pm Oct 13, 2014 3:54pm
The key thing with trade is not just the amount of goods being exported to China, it is the type of goods being exported.

New Zealand exports a lot of basic foodstuffs to China - milk, cheese, meat and fruit etc.. China will keep importing those things, at about the same rate, regardless of what is happening with it's own economy.

Australia on the other hand exports a lot of industrial/construction materials - steel, copper, coal, natural gas etc.. When the chinese economy speeds up or slows down, the first thing affected is its demand for construction materials. This happens regardless of what china's currency is doing - so the correlation with AUD lies in chinese GDP figures rather than the value of CNY. When chinese GDP growth increases it puts upward pressure on AUD, when chinese GDP growth decreases it puts downward pressure on AUD.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #45
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:12pm Oct 13, 2014 4:12pm
Quoting numbnuts
The key thing with trade is not just the amount of goods being exported to China, it is the type of goods being exported. New Zealand exports a lot of basic foodstuffs to China - milk, cheese, meat and fruit etc.. China will keep importing those things, at about the same rate, regardless of what is happening with it's own economy. Australia on the other hand exports a lot of industrial/construction materials - steel, copper, coal, natural gas etc.. When the chinese economy speeds up or slows down, the first thing affected is its demand for construction...
Anyway since it's been established that trading the CNY and/or CNH counter USD,(or is it vice-versa), is now a viable option with some brokers, fundamental considerations can be concentrated more into those pairs analysis instead of the indirect effect on the other currencies. Really good time to be buying the CNY/CNH currency...tnx in no small part to iphone 6 exports too...hehehe. Wanna bet we have up to a 97% probability of seeing 1325 soon?
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  • #46
  • Oct 13, 2014 6:55pm Oct 13, 2014 6:55pm
Quoting numbnuts
The key thing with trade is not just the amount of goods being exported to China, it is the type of goods being exported. New Zealand exports a lot of basic foodstuffs to China - milk, cheese, meat and fruit etc.. China will keep importing those things, at about the same rate, regardless of what is happening with it's own economy. Australia on the other hand exports a lot of industrial/construction materials - steel, copper, coal, natural gas etc.. When the chinese economy speeds up or slows down, the first thing affected is its demand for construction...
That is so true, well said Numb..although the Data from yesterday was encouraging for both China and Aus Dollar, still the construction works in China has been slow down much as far as looking at the physical situation now..so will China continuous to increase their import from Australia in a light speed? We shall see....
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/85950572/numb.jpg
Dedication brings Satisfaction and Success.
  • #47
  • Oct 13, 2014 10:00pm Oct 13, 2014 10:00pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} hmmm...I guess the question now is how to get the currencies 'daily fix' figures?...
Its released via Bloomberg terminals, or Oanda posts em. Some of the guys I follow on twitter post em (like ForexLive). Here's what they look like via Oanda news, released just a min or 2 after, via Dow-Jones newswires:

Note that NZD/CNY wasn't on there before the direct swap was setup.
California Timezone:
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  • #48
  • Oct 13, 2014 10:07pm Oct 13, 2014 10:07pm
Quoting LITEchild
{quote} Tnx numbnuts. from my understanding, an improved chinese economy would imply exports>>imports and probably have an inverse(adverse?) effect on AUD probably(albeit maybe minute). On an interesting note(maybe coincidentally?), AUD is registering as the weakest currency right now on my algos.
Hi!

The Trade Balance doesn't work that way exactly!
Take a look at my Post to a better undertanding of it

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=508300

Kind regards!
Trade, don't bet.
  • #49
  • Oct 14, 2014 3:25am Oct 14, 2014 3:25am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Hi, I think Ryan's posts here offer a strong possibility for a fundamental trading strategy... Trading once the value exits the channel, the ultimative recurrence. Ryan420, cheers! k
Good luck! I don't think it'd be that easy though. If anyone is making $$ its the ones that manipulate the ccy (china central bank)
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  • #50
  • Mar 28, 2020 6:58am Mar 28, 2020 6:58am
I know its been quite a while since anyone has posted on this, and I was just wondering if you guys still think the correlation of China with AUD and NZD still holds? Or has the past 6 years changed that at all?
  • #51
  • Apr 6, 2020 12:19pm Apr 6, 2020 12:19pm
It seems to me that in the first days after the situation with the virus in China, the situation was most clearly reflected in the U.S. dollar, especially given the situation with the trade war. In fact, it was noticeable both in terms of currency and stock value of different companies. Now the situation has stabilized a bit, because in general, the crisis, which is related to the pandemic itself, has affected every country and every city, which led to the collapse of almost all assets. Now there is a situation that actually causes fear among all specialists, and now there is a situation that requires increased attention if you want to make money here and now. But it seems like the situation in China is already getting better, so it is possible that things will change soon.
  • #52
  • Last Post: Sep 29, 2020 3:13am Sep 29, 2020 3:13am
Does anyone know if CNY affects other pairs too? like GBP, CHF, JPY, EUR? Just wanted to know what other pairs to avoid during CNY bank holidays.
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